site.btaMedia Review: March 19

OVERVIEW

All TV channels and the Bulgarian National Radio (BNR) report on Velichie, the newest political party that entered Parliament with ten new MPs after last week's ruling of the Constitutional Court that outlawed the election of 16 MPs from other parties.

POLITICS

Political expert Petar Cholakov told BNR that Bulgarian democracy is sick, with numerous severe defects evident in the electoral process. He criticized other experts for claiming that everything is fine when it is not, as such attempts to distort the truth could only anger the electorate. Cholakov said: "The problem is not that there are only 121 [MPs, the lowest possible number of MPs to have a majority in Bulgaria's Parliament]. The problem is not even in [Delyan] Peevski [the leader of Movement for Rights and Freedoms – New Beginning]. [...] The problem is with the legitimacy of these institutions, which is very low." The expert believes that parliamentary parties are afraid to go to elections. He criticized them for procrastinating and looking the other way, while the problems in the electoral system are only growing bigger.

Cholakov said MPs should be quite measured in their behaviour towards the Velichie MPs, who got sworn in on Wednesday, since they should have become MPs months ago. He added: "The citizens who stood behind these people have been practically illegally deprived of representation for 4-5 months."

According to the expert, Vazrazhdane, Velichie, and MECh are very similar in terms of the profile of their voters, and it would be logical to have them grouped together. He added that these three parties are fighting for the same voters, hence the attacks on each other. "If they really want to make some changes, and they obviously represent the same voters, they will eventually remember that they have to act together. This is what diminishes the weight of these formations in the National Assembly [...]. There is a rise of such populist, Eurosceptic, radical right formations across Europe. What masks their rise in Bulgarian politics, and their considerable electoral weight, is that they are fragmented."

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BNR quotes Continue the Change (CC) Co-Chair Kiril Petkov, who told reporters in parliament that the ruling majority will crumble soon, if it continues to rely on Peevski's support.

CC alleged that there is a potential corruption scheme in a procurement call published by the Road Infrastructure Agency (RIA) on Tuesday. The invitation to tender was placed for a 60-kilometre section between the towns of Byala and Veliko Tarnovo, North Central Bulgaria. Petkov said that a section of 60 kilometres has an estimated cost of nearly BGN 3 billion or about BGN 50 million per kilometre. He called on Minister of Regional Development and Public Works Ivan Ivanov and Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov to immediately investigate the RIA and report on their findings.

An article in Mediapool reports that the estimated cost in the 2017conceptual design for the motorway was BGN 550 million. The article criticizes the RIA leadership for avoiding media appearances or justifying the ten-fold price spike in 8 years. The text continues: "Along with inflation, rising prices of goods and services, and wage increases, another likely explanation for the price rise would be Bulgaria's unique nature. The explanations given so far for road price increases have been 'weak soils,' 'loess soils,' 'extremely difficult mountainous terrain,' 'landslides,' etc."

The Bulgarian National Television (BNT) quotes Minister Ivanov as saying: "The whole process of the construction of this section will be absolutely transparent and anyone who wishes can give their expert opinion. First of all, this is one of the most complicated sections to build in this part of Bulgaria, in the Danubian Plain, because it is one of the most difficult areas possible to build. Three tunnels with a total length of more than 2 km will be built, as well as several bridges with pier heights of more than 30 m. The total length of the viaducts to be built in this section is 9 km. The construction of a number of underpasses and overpasses, retaining walls, deep excavations and high embankments is planned. The Danubian Plain has loess soils and extremely difficult terrain. Several road junctions are planned to provide direct connections in the most congested directions, with an estimated length of the junction links of more than 10 km. Construction is extremely expensive. The procedure launched by the RIA for the selection of a contractor has been effectively closed by us. Over time, prices are rising."

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BNR reports that the Confederation of Independent Trade Unions in Bulgaria will hold a protest near the National Assembly building on Thursday under the slogan "We want a clear wage increase with Budget 2025." The unionists want to secure additional nearly BGN 250 million for salary increases in institutions that include the National Social Security Institute, National Employment Agency, Social Assistance Agency, National Health Insurance Fund, Bulgarian State Railways, BNT, BNR, BTA, structures of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food, public transport, school and child healthcare.

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Mediapool.bg reports that MECh MP Samuil Slavov's resignation was approved in Parliament, after Bird.bg revealed that Slavov had been arrested in the US for ATM skimming. According to Bird, initially Slavov denied but then confessed to the arrests. Slavov spent 4 months in prison, as confirmed by the Pinellas County Sheriff's Office in Florida.

ECONOMY

Dnevnik.bg reports that representatives of the hospitality industry said that they will block road junctions in more than 30 cities across the country to protest the lack of dialogue with the government and the planned return of the 20% VAT on their businesses. Currently, the VAT rate imposed on them is 9%, a reduction that was first implemented at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic as part of the relief measures. According to the protestors, the rollback of the 20% VAT will lead to bankruptcies, to more businesses choosing to operate in the grey sector, and to diminished revenues in the state budget. Zlatko Zlatanov, Deputy Chair of the Bulgarian Hotel and Restaurant Association, told BNR that this is the beginning of a series of national protests. He added: "We are going out in at least eight major cities, closing down central roads, central streets. If they do not pay attention to us, we promise that we will shut down the whole country for three days next week. And if that [does not work either], they will see on the yellow setts [in downtown Sofia] something they have never seen before." Zlatanov specified that representatives of the hospitality industry will unite with bread bakers to bring in tens of thousands of protesters and added that raising the wages of officials at the Interior Ministry at the expense of others is unacceptable.

A blitz survey conducted by BNR suggests that consumers are not supportive of the hospitality industry's demands, with opinions reading: "You may go to a restaurant, or you may not. Despite the reduced VAT rates for restaurateurs, I haven't noticed any price cuts or better quality service," "A bottle of mineral water [in a restaurant] costs BGN 2.60. That same bottle in an ordinary shop costs no more than BGN 0.50," "The reduction in prices was related to the anti-COVID measures. There are no such measures at the moment. The prices are extremely high, the service is not up to par," "There is no reason for everyone else to pay 20% VAT, including ordinary consumers. The prices in restaurants – I am speechless!"

BALKANS

bTV quotes Serbia's acting Prime Minister Milos Vucevic, who said that the military alliance between Croatia, Albania and Kosovo has the possibility to expand to include Bulgaria in the future. Vucevic spoke to Blic.rs, pointing out that Croatia, Bulgaria and Albania are Serbia's neighbours, after Croatia's Defence Minister Ivan Anusic said: "The three states [Kosovo, Albania and Croatia] will be prepared to face future security challenges in Southeast Europe, and there is a possibility that this trilateral military alliance will expand in the future with Bulgaria." The Serbian Prime Minister said: "I hope that it is clear to all Serbian citizens that Serbia is a country that is a responsibility only for us. If we do not protect and build it, nothing good awaits us."

UKRAINE

Interviewed by BNR, Assoc. Prof. Iskren Ivanov, political analyst and lecturer at Sofia University, commented on several international topics.

He argued that the US-Russia negotiations, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine, should not be seen as steps toward peace but rather as the beginning of dialogue. He sees two potential scenarios for the resolution of the war in Ukraine. One involves a gradual de-escalation of conflict zones leading to Ukraine's division. The key parameters of such a truce would be driven by agreements between the US and Russia. The other, less favourable scenario, involves a resumption of the war. This could happen if Washington and Moscow's expectations were at odds, or if Europe broke away from the emerging consensus between Washington and Moscow. In this case, the EU would be alone against the US, Russia and China. If European peacekeepers were sent to Ukraine, Russia might provoke them, further escalating tensions. Ivanov stressed that the presence of European peacekeepers in Ukraine would be viable only if both the US and the Kremlin agreed to it. Without such a consensus, the war could be reignited during Trump's term.

Ivanov acknowledged that the Bulgarian government was taking a pragmatic approach by balancing its relations with the EU and the US. The analyst suggested that Bulgaria needs to fix a percentage of GDP for defence spending in its legislation.

He is concerned by what he views as a growing anti-Trump rhetoric in Bulgaria, which is gradually starting to turn into large-scale anti-Americanism. The statements from France and Britain are clear – the two countries aim to extend a nuclear umbrella over Europe and help Europe defend itself, but they do not have nuclear triads, and their arsenals may only be sufficient to protect Western Europe. Meanwhile, Central and Eastern Europe cannot rely on the EU for their defence: "We can only rely on the US within this configuration." The only reason why a Third World War has not broken out is because the system of nuclear deterrence has been effective for many decades. There is an American nuclear umbrella over Europe, and it ought to be maintained, because building European armed forces would take at least a decade, and achieving nuclear parity with Russia would take at least two decades, said Ivanov.

SOCIETY

The Bulgarian History Association complained in a Facebook post that it tried and failed to rent billboard space for an anti-gambling advertisement, Dnevnik.bg reported. The billboard would have read: "We rented this billboard, so that it does not display an advertisement for gambling for at least a week. We say 'No' to the disease that is poisoning our society," however, the ad agencies that rent billboards in Sofia either declined to post the ad either because it "does not meet their ethical standards," because they "lack the possibility to put such a vision," or they did not respond to the Bulgarian History Association altogether.

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According to data from Eurostat quoted by Nova TV and 24 Chasa, Bulgarian women had the highest fertility rate of 1.8 children in 2023. The rate measures the average number of children a woman would give birth to in her fertile period, which covers women aged between 15 and 49 in Bulgaria. The country was followed by France and Hungary, while Malta registered the lowest fertility rate.

Bulgaria also had the highest rate of children born by unmarried mother, with more than 50%, followed by Portugal and France. Greece was at the bottom of the list with less than 10%.