site.btaDefence Intelligence Service Head: No Talks about Mass Return of Syrians Can Take Place until Situation Calms Down

Talks about a mass return of Syrians to their homeland cannot be held until the situation in Syria calms down, said Defence Intelligence Service Director Venelin Venev, who was heard on Thursday in Parliament together with State Agency for National Security Chair Plamen Tonchev, and State Intelligence Agency Chair Antoan Gechev, about the measures the caretaker Government is taking to ensure security in relation to the processes in the Middle East and in Syria in particular.

“According to the data we have, there are at least 3.5 million Syrian citizens who are on the territory of Turkiye, of whom up to 40,000 have returned,” he noted. According to him, those who are returning are from the refugee camps on the Turkish-Syrian border, and only to see what the situation is after the fall of the Assad regime.

Over the past year, the security environment in the Middle East has undergone significant changes and as a result of the successful actions of the Israeli Defense Forces and their special services, Hamas and Hezbollah have been significantly weakened, Venev noted in his hearing.

He pointed out that after the change of power in Washington, pressure on Ansar Allah and Iran will only increase. In the future, Tehran's ability to influence the situation in the Middle East could be further reduced, he added.

Syria remains divided into zones of influence. Most of the country is currently under the control of the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham group and other opposition armed groups, Venev said.

The Israeli Defence Forces continue to launch airstrikes against Syrian military bases and structures and weapons and ammunition depots, including where there are suspected poisonous warfare agents. This is an important element of preventing weapon of mass destruction from falling into non-state hands, he added.

Instability in Syria will remain, said Venev. “There is lack of security, lack of energy and food, social and communal problems. Indeed, this could generate an additional refugee flow from Syria,” he said.

Venev noted that the security situation in the West Bank has also deteriorated, where Tel Aviv is forced to pursue an active and consistent policy. “There is a daily violation of the so-called temporary ceasefire agreements between Israel and Hezbollah. The Israeli security forces will be forced to remain in Lebanon for at least several more months because of the vacuum that is forming and the inability of the Lebanese armed forces to fill that vacuum,” he added.

During his hearing, General Venev defined as key the situation in Jordan as the conflict in Gaza is creating a refugee wave to there. “Jordan is key and if security is shaken in this country, we will have an additional problem with both security and the generation of new refugee flows,” he explained.

General Venev also singled out the stability of Iran as important, which he said is standing in the way of human trafficking from Pakistan to Turkiye. Iran has lost some of the influence it used to wield and will have to rely on its missile and nuclear programmes. At the moment, the migration situation in Iran remains relatively stable. The Iranian authorities have stepped up their fence-building activities with Afghanistan. Additional personnel have been deployed along the border with Pakistan, added Gen. Venev.

The situation in Iraq remains tense. Iraq is in a state of civil war, Venev pointed out, and reported that a refugee flow of its own could form from Iraq.