site.btaMedia Review: March 10

POLITICS

In a bTV appearance on Sunday, Foreign Minister Georg Georgiev said the EU's resolve to allocate larger resources for collective defence is strong. "The Bulgarian defence industry has enormous potential. We need to encourage it, to invest, and that is what the Bulgarian government will do." He said no one would benefit from breaking up the alliance between the EU and the US. The EU must participate in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The position of Bulgaria's government and Parliament is that this country must not intervene directly with peacekeeping or other forces in Ukraine. The government and the President have been sending different messages, he said. "We can seek different justifications, use different tools, but what Bulgaria sends as a signal will always be stronger if it is articulated by all parties involved. In this case, the government's position is very firm and dovetails with the majority in Parliament."

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Rositsa Mateva, Deputy Chair of the Central Election Commission (CEC), told Nova TV on Monday that there might be some changes in the allocation of seats in Parliament after the Constitutional Court tasked CEC with a nationwide recalculation of the results of the parliamentary elections held last October. Mateva said the number of valid and invalid votes for each party and coalition that participated in the elections has changed. Considering that the Velichie party was 21 votes short of crossing the electoral threshold, it is possible that the number of votes needed for entering Parliament may change after experts recounted the ballots in 2,204 voting sections (out of 12,000) and found errors in about 47% of them.

24 Chasa says that it is not clear yet if there will be changes in seat allocation. Election service operator Information Services has been working on entering the new data established by the vote recount. On March 6, it told CEC that experts may have made mistakes, referring to sections where the experts found zero votes for parties and coalitions, although the video surveillance shows that ballots had been cast. Election expert Stoil Tzitzelkov told the daily there were two options: either the Constitutional Court should state that there is no need for a recount, or by-elections should be held in those sections. The seven sections for which there is no evidence of a valid vote should re-entered into the system with a zero result. He said the Court's ban on publishing the results of the recount raised doubts that someone would benefit from the non-transparency, and bred distrust in all institutions and the entire administration.

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Trud covers the latest developments in the three-party government coalition backed by MRF-Democracy, Rights and Freedoms (MRF-DRF). Kostadin Angelov, who heads the Joint Governance Council, said on Sunday that the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) had offered to share its quota for deputy ministers with MRF-DRF. For its part, the Left denied any such commitments for appointments of people close to Ahmed Dogan. Last week, after the first reading of the 2025 Budget Bill, GERB, BSP and There Is Such a People told a joint briefing that MRF-DRF "aims to destabilize the government and keeps seeking appointments" in the government. Deputy Floor Leader Mario Rangelov said on Sunday that his group, MRF-DRF, had named three deputy ministers out of 50 but their initial approval had been reversed.

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Trud has an opinion piece by Associate Professor Borislav Tsekov from the Conservative Forum on what he calls "Bulgarian-style filibustering". He analyses the Vazrazhdane party's attempt to torpedo the adoption of the euro by making 38,235 proposals before the second reading of the State Budget Bill. That number mirrors the number of pages with signatures they collected in an unsuccessful attempt to initiate a national referendum "for the preservation of the Bulgarian lev", which failed predictably because it was constitutionally inadmissible. The goal now is to obstruct and delay the adoption of the budget, hoping to prevent the inevitable - that Bulgaria will finally complete its full integration in the EU by adopting the euro. Vazrazhdane is trying to involve Parliament in a six-month debate and voting on this huge list of proposals.

DEFENCE

A front-page story in 24 Chasa says that for the first time in Bulgaria's modern history, the newly adopted National Defence Strategy states not only that Russia is a threat to security, but also that it could likely attack EU and NATO Member States. The document says Russia's unprovoked aggression against Ukraine has disrupted international law principles and the European security framework, increasing the possibility of attacks on NATO and EU Member States, including Bulgaria. It also points to the Black Sea region as a potential flashpoint, suggesting the need for enhanced NATO naval presence. The document says Russia's confrontation with the US and NATO is expected to continue. Bulgaria acknowledges the possibility of a new military conflict in the Balkans, triggered by Russian influence. It could arise from unresolved issues among the countries of the Western Balkans, as they contribute to the "rise of nationalism and extreme populism, creating conditions for a sharp deterioration in the security environment". These processes are encouraged by external factors (Russia, China and countries from the Arab world)". The strategy lists more challenges facing NATO and Bulgaria: terrorism, negative changes in the strategic security environment in the Middle East and North Africa, increased risks to energy security and critical infrastructure, the emergence of differences among NATO Allies affecting Euro-Atlantic unity, and the impact of climate change.

An analysis in Trud on defence spending in Europe by Adrian Nikolov from the Institute for Market Economics looks at the distribution of funds and the state of the military-industrial complex. The latest available data of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) for 2023 show that even after the start of the war in Ukraine, Austria spends 0.84% of its GDP on defence, Belgium 1.21% and Slovenia 1.34%. The countries with the highest share of military expenditures are Poland (3.83%), Greece (3.23%), Estonia (2.87%), Lithuania (2.72%) and Finland (2.42%). Most of the countries with a high share of military spending in 2023 border the conflict zone. In nominal terms, according to SIPRI data, Germany is the absolute leader with USD 61 billion, followed by France (USD 57 billion), Italy (USD 33 billion), Poland (USD 27 billion) and Spain (USD 22 billion). Germany's defence spending alone nearly equals the total spending of the 20 EU Member States from the bottom of the table up. If boosting the local industry is among the goals of military spending, production capacity and R&D will need to be expanded in the medium term. According to SIPRI data on the world's largest arms manufacturers, no European company ranks in the top 10 by sales revenue.

FINANCE

In a Trud analysis of the 2025 State Budget Bill, which passed on first reading on March 6, financial expert Dimitar Chobanov says it projects the largest revenue increase ever. Total revenues, grants and donations under the Consolidated Fiscal Programme for 2025 are projected at nearly BGN 90.7 billion, nearly BGN 18.3 billion (25.4%) more than in 2024. The largest share, as usual, comes from tax and social security revenues, which are expected to top BGN 70.8 billion, up by more than BGN 12.1 billion (20.7%). Such growth rates in tax and social security revenues have never been achieved since the currency board arrangement was introduced in 1997. The policy of collecting 100% of dividends from enterprises with at least 50% state or municipal interest continues this year. As a result, some enterprises now need capitalization, leading to more government debt issuance.

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In a bTV interview, former finance minister Milen Velchev said Bulgaria needs to break the habit of generating a 3% budget deficit every year. Since the economy is currently expected to grow, the upward trend should be used to put public finances in order. He considers the increase in salaries and the rise in social and pension expenditure the main budget-related issues this year. He said spending policy should change, or else higher taxes will be inevitable in the coming years, and growing debt will lead to increased interest payments.

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Interviewed by the Bulgarian National Radio, economist Krassen Stanchev commented on the arguments for preserving the independence of the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) and the Bulgarian lev, which he said were behind the current hysteria. The BNB was fully independent from external factors only between March 1990 and March 1997. Then the central bank fixed the exchange rate at its current level, originally pegging the lev to the German mark and then to the euro; therefore, Bulgaria is already in the eurozone. Stanchev explained that the eurozone and the European Central Bank would gradually resemble a currency board arrangement, ensuring the full independence of the central bank from political decisions.

Interviewed by the Bulgarian National Television, Deputy Finance Minister Metodi Metodiev said that once the euro is adopted, savings will be automatically converted into euro. The same will apply to salaries, without a need to sign new employer-employee contracts, unless the sides have agreed otherwise.

INDUSTRY

Mediapool.bg has an analysis headlined "While the World Battles for Critical Minerals, Bulgaria Is Neglecting Its Own". It quotes sustainable development expert Boyan Rashev, partner at EY denkstatt, as saying that mining projects face resistance worldwide, especially in Europe, where people prefer peace and quiet to any kind of work. In Bulgaria, however, resistance begins at the exploration and prospecting stage, before it is even clear whether there are deposits and what can be extracted. He cites opposition to the extraction of tungsten near Velingrad (Southern Bulgaria) where one of Europe's richest deposits was found. Local people protested against a 35-year concession, with a BGN 140 million investment and the creation of 700 jobs, arguing that "Velingrad is the pearl of tourism and should remain that way". According to a 2023 report, Bulgaria is the third-largest supplier of baryte in Europe, with an 11% share, following the leader China. Bulgaria also accounts for 5% of copper supplies in the EU, and is among the producers of bentonite, perlite, cerium, cadmium, fluorite, kaolin and silica sand.

In Bulgaria, politicians hinder the efforts of private investors to explore for critical minerals. When a project manages to clear the administrative hurdles, local communities or environmentalists almost always rise against it. In July 2024, the government agreed to fund research with BGN 8.5 million by the end of 2029 to determine the country's potential for the extraction of critical and strategic minerals needed for the automotive, steel, aerospace, IT, healthcare, and renewable energy industries. In 2024, consortia from the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, universities, scientific organizations and natural history and mineralogical museums were supposed to get BGN 2.5 million. The Energy Ministry, which is responsible for underground resources, did not respond to mediapool.bg's questions - whether the 2024 funds will be allocated in annual installments until 2029, and whether research for strategic minerals will be funded at all.

CULTURE

Following the Culture Ministry's decision to decline hosting the 47th Session of the UNESCO World Heritage Committee, Foreign Minister Georg Georgiev said on bTV on Sunday that the former culture minister, Nayden Todorov, entered a commitment for Sofia to host event without coordinating it with anyone and is currently trying to salvage his reputation. "He did not have a mandate to make such a commitment. After that, he literally tried to convince others that this was a good initiative," said Georgiev. The costs Bulgaria was supposed to cover total some EUR 10 million. "We would be paying for about 4,000 delegates. Two-thirds of them are from developing countries, with all expenses covered: flights, visas, per diems and daily allowances, in line with UNESCO's rules. The former minister either does not know this or has lied, so we will alert the prosecution service to investigate his actions." The financial commitments are enormous, Georgiev stressed. He said this was nothing but an investment in the hospitality and restaurant industries: "The delegates would come here at Bulgaria's expense, but this is not an investment in culture. They would be working for a month, with no time to explore or preserve the country's cultural heritage."

Also on Sunday, Todorov told bTV that it would have been best if Bulgaria hosted the event in Sofia, not in Paris. He apologized to his co-workers at the Culture Ministry and to the entire team working on the organization of the session because after months of hard work, it was said that nothing had been done. "I realize it is very easy to blame someone who is no longer in office and has no political support," said Todorov.

INVESTIGATIVE JOURNALIST GROZEV INTERVIEWED

In a BNT interview, Bulgarian investigative journalist Christo Grozev said the six Bulgarians on trial in London for spying for Russia had been planning to kidnap and even murder him. Grozev said he had been followed during his stay in Bulgaria in the summer of 2021. At that time, he was supposed to be kidnapped and handed over to Russian Federal Security Service agents in Syria. The plans for the journalist's murder included stabbing with an ice pick or using a hammer.

Nova TV also discussed the trial in which three Bulgarians were found guilty of spying for Russia on March 7. The question is why Jan Marsalek, who ran the Russian spy ring carrying out surveillance on a US military base and individuals targeted by Moscow, was not put on trial. There are at least three reasons, said Nova TV. First, his current whereabouts are unknown (and he remains the subject of an Interpol red notice for fraud). Second, there is media speculation that he had worked for Western intelligence agencies before seeking asylum in Russia. Third, according to well-informed police sources, he was dropped from the case following an agreement with Orlin Roussev, who pleaded guilty before the trial. He feared for his safety as he is the only "professional spy" in the scheme.

ROMANIA'S GEORGESCU BARRED FROM RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT

The media report that chaos and violence broke out in Bucharest after Romania's Central Election Bureau barred Calin Georgescu from the presidential election rerun in May. There were serious clashes, and even before that, law enforcers used tear gas against the demonstrators, Trud says. 

Quoting BTA, mediapool.bg reports that Georgescu's candidacy was rejected by a vote of 4-10. Supporters of the pro-Russian politician attempted to break into the election authority's headquarters, which required intervention by the gendarmerie. "Romania is under a dictatorship," Anamaria Gavrila, leader of Romania's far-right Party of Young People (POT), commented on Facebook. Former President Traian Basescu said the Election Bureau should specify on what grounds Georgescu was rejected, adding that George Simion, leader of the right-wing Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), was the main player who stood to win from Georgescu's rejection.