site.btaBusiness Climate in Bulgaria Keeps Its December Levels in January

In January 2025, the total business climate indicator remains at its level from December 2024 (from 18.7% to 18.6%). An increase of the indicator is observed in the construction, in industry it preserves approximately its level from the previous month, and in retail trade and in service sector a reduction is registered, are the summary estimates from the business survey of the National Statistical Institute (NSI), showing the business conjuncture in the Bulgarian economy at the beginning of the year.

The composite indicator “business climate in industry” remains nearly at its level from December 2024 (from 17.7% to 17.4%). The industrial entrepreneurs’ expectations about both the business situation of the enterprises over the next six months and their activity over the next three months are favourable. In January 2025 in comparison with October 2024, an increase of the average capacity utilization (by 1.0 percentage point) is observed and it reaches 74.2%.

The main problems limiting the activity in the sector continue to be the uncertain economic environment and shortage of labour, identified respectively by 56.9% and 31.7% of the enterprises.

Concerning the selling prices in industry, the majority of the managers foresee them to remain unchanged over the next three months.

In January, the composite indicator “business climate in construction” increases by 2.7 percentage points (from 16.9% to 19.6%), mainly due to the improved construction entrepreneurs’ expectations about the business situation of the enterprises over the next six months. Their forecasts about the construction activity over the next three months are also more optimistic.

The most serious difficulties for the business development remain connected with the uncertain economic environment, shortage of labour and costs of materials, although in the last month a decrease of their negative impact is reported.

The construction entrepreneurs’ expect selling prices over the next three months to increase.

The composite indicator “business climate in retail trade” decreases by 1.8 percentage points (from 29.4% to 27.6%), which is due to the more reserved retailers’ expectations about the business situation of the enterprises over the next six months. However, their forecasts about the volume of sales and orders placed with suppliers over the next three months are improving.

The uncertain economic environment, competition in the branch, and shortage of labour remain the main obstacles for the activity of the enterprises.

Concerning the selling prices, retailers continue to expect them to increase over the next three months.

In January, the composite indicator “business climate in services” decreases by 1.0 percentage point (from 11.9% to 10.9%) as a result of the more unfavourable managers’ expectations about the business situation of the enterprises over the next six months. Their forecasts about the demand for services over the next three months are also reserved.

The main factor limiting the business development continue to be the uncertain economic environment, pointed out by 53.9% of the enterprises. In second and third place are the competition in the branch and shortage of labour.

In comparison with December 2024, the managers’ share who forecast the selling prices in the service sector to increase over the next three months is rising.