site.btaSeven Parties Likely to Enter Next Parliament, Mediana Survey Shows

Seven Parties Likely to Enter Next Parliament, Mediana Survey Shows

Sofia, October 2 (BTA) - Seven parties are likely to enter the
next parliament, shows a nationally representative survey,
conducted by the Mediana polling agency between September 25 and
October 1 among 1,000 respondents.

Six parties are sure to enter the next National Assembly - GERB,
the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), the Movement for Rights
and Freedoms (MRF), the Patriotic Front (PF), Bulgaria without
Censorship (BwC) and the Reformist Bloc (RB). Ataka currently
stands a serious chance of crossing the 4 per cent threshold to
parliament, Mediana's Kolyo Kolev said during a news conference,
hosted in BTA's Press Club on Thursday.

The forecast results point to a voter turnout of around 3.2
million, of which GERB would receive 31 per cent of votes, the
BSP-Left Bulgaria coalition - 21 per cent, MRF - 13.2 per cent,
BwC - 7.5 per cent, PF - 7.1 per cent, RB - 6.8 per cent, Ataka
- 4.5 per cent and ABV - 3.7 per cent. The forecasts are only
based on voters in Bulgaria and do take into account those
abroad.

The most likely configuration is a parliament made up of six or
seven parties with many problems for any of them to try forming
a parliamentary majority, Kolev says.
GERB will get the most MP seats, but likely less than 90. The
likely options will be the formation of a three or four party
coalition, a broad coalition or an attempt to form a minority
government, the pollster says.

If there is a seven party parliament, which is the most likely
scenario, GERB would get 83 seats, BSP-Left Bulgaria - 55, MRF -
35, BwC - 19, PF and RB - 18 each and Ataka - 12.

In case of a six party parliament, GERB would have 87 MPs, the
socialists - 58, MRF - 37, BwC - 21, PF - 19, RB - 18.

The distribution of seats in an eight party parliament would
look something like this: GERB - 80, BSP-Left Bulgaria - 53, MRF
- 33, BwC - 18, PF - 18, RB - 17, Ataka - 11, ABV - 10.

The upcoming elections will be held in times of growing
pessimism and concern regarding this country's economic
condition. Close to half of voters expect things to get worse in
the next year, Kolev said. According to him, GERB and BSP are
not benefiting from this increased anxiety, as a large part of
voters do not see them as "saviours". The majority sees the
return of the two big parties to power as unacceptable, bad or
even catastrophic. Some 40 per cent of respondents express this
view about GERB's possible return to power and 42 per cent about
BSP. This data reveals the huge problems with public trust the
two parties would face if they try to form a parliamentary
majority and a government, Kolev says.

Kolev notes the increased negativity towards politics with close
to a third of Bulgarians stating that there is not a single
party they want to see in power. According to the survey, nine
per cent believe that the upcoming elections will be fair, 31
say somewhat fair and 38 per cent think the elections will not
be fair. Some 18 per cent of respondents believe that the
caretaker Government will work for fair elections.

According to Kolev, the lowest voter turnout since the advent of
democracy is expected during these elections, with around 3.2
million voters.