site.btaNatgas Price Up in 2024: 5.59% on Bulgarian Regulated Market, 58.39% on Balkan Gas Hub, 33.82% on Largest European Market

Over the past year, the price of natural gas in Bulgaria increased by 5.59% annually on the regulated market, or BGN 4.34 per megawatt-hour (MWh) - from BGN 77.60/MWh in January 2024 to BGN 81.94/MWh in January 2025. This is reflected in the decisions of the Energy and Water Regulatory Commission (EWRC), which sets new natural gas prices monthly. According to the regulator, the monthly price fluctuations reflect the complex dynamics of the natural gas market and the influence of multiple international and domestic factors.

Price evolution through the year

January 2024 began with a price of BGN 77.60/MWh. The lowest price was reached in May 2024, when it was BGN 54.70/MWh, largely due to seasonal consumption declines and favorable conditions in the international liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets. Prices rose modestly during the summer months, peaking at BGN 60.75/MWh in August. The second half of the year saw a gradual increase, culminating at BGN 75.89/MWh in December and starting January 2025 at BGN 81.94/MWh.

The factors

According to the EWRC, several factors shape the price dynamics. First was international markets, as global market trends and geopolitical circumstances significantly impact natural gas supply and pricing. Second was long-term contracts: Bulgaria benefits from a stabilizing long-term contract with Azerbaijan, ensuring competitive prices and secure supplies. Third was diversification: LNG imports and resources from the Chiren gas storage facility contributed to energy supply flexibility and helped mitigate the adverse effects of international price fluctuations.

The natural gas price dynamics in Bulgaria throughout 2024 and into January 2025 reflect significant monthly fluctuations, as shown in the decisions of the Energy and Water Regulatory Commission (EWRC) through the year. 2024 began with a price of 77.60 BGN/MWh in January 2024. February saw a notable decrease of 8.4%, bringing the price down to 71.08 BGN/MWh. This downward trend continued in March, where the price dropped by 19% to 57.59 BGN/MWh, marking one of the most significant reductions for the year.

In April, prices slightly rebounded by 2%, reaching 58.84 BGN/MWh. The downward trend resumed in May, when the lowest price of the year—54.70 BGN/MWh—was recorded, a 7% drop compared to the previous month. However, the middle of the year saw a moderate increase, with June prices rising by 8% to 59.55 BGN/MWh. In July, a small decline of 2.43% brought the price to 58.10 BGN/MWh, followed by a 4.5% increase in August, when the price reached 60.75 BGN/MWh.

The latter half of the year was characterized by a steady upward trajectory. In September, the price rose by 1.9% to 61.91 BGN/MWh, while October saw a further increase of 2.9% to 63.72 BGN/MWh. November experienced a sharper rise of 8%, pushing the price to 68.69 BGN/MWh. December closed the year with a price of 75.89 BGN/MWh, a 10.48% increase compared to the previous month. Finally, January 2025 opened with a price of 81.94 BGN/MWh, reflecting a 7.97% rise from December 2024.

These monthly prices, determined by the EWRC, exclude additional costs such as access, transmission, excise duties, and VAT. The fluctuations underscore the influence of international market dynamics, geopolitical developments, and domestic factors on natural gas pricing in Bulgaria.

On the largest natural gas market in Europe, TTF, gas appreciated by 33.82%, from EUR 37.08/MWh on January 8, 2024, to EUR 49.62/MWh on January 5, 2025. The lowest price was seen on February 23, 2024, at EUR 29.13/MWh and the highest on January 2, 2025, at EUR 50.27/MWh. 

On the Balkan Gas Hub, natural gas appreciated by 58.39% in the day-ahead segment.