site.btaDepopulation Threatens Not Only Bulgaria's Population but Its Socio-Economic Development, Expert Warns

In a BTA interview, Assoc. Prof. Nikolay Tsekov of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS) warned that depopulation is a huge threat not only to the development of demography in Bulgaria, but also to the socio-economic development of many regions in the country. Assoc. Prof. Tsekov is a specialist in regional demography, population and settlement geography, and labour economics at the BAS Institute for Population and Human Studies. According to him, the negative depopulation process in Bulgaria is related to the forced collectivisation carried out by the communist regime in the 1950s and 1960s.

The specialist said that he collected data from censuses taken in 2001 and 2021. After an analysis, he found the startling fact that the area of the so-called demographic deserts in 2001 accounted for just under 25.1% of Bulgaria's territory, while in 2021 the area of these territories sharply increased to almost 40% of the country's territory. In Tsekov’s words, these data show that Bulgaria has sparsely populated territories the size of countries such as the Netherlands, Switzerland or Denmark.

Tsekov's study aims to show the population ageing’s indirect damage to Bulgaria and its agriculture.

In the 1950s and the 1960s, the land of some 2 million Bulgarians of rural areas was forcibly confiscated by the communist regime, causing them to emigrate to the cities. By 1965/1966, between 80,000 and 100,000 people annually moved from what are now demographic deserts to Bulgaria's cities where they found a more tolerable life in the concrete ghettos of socialism, preferring them to the rural unemployment caused by lack of land, Tsekov recalled.

"Collectivisation broke the umbilical cord between the owner and the land," he stressed.

In 2001, there were only 173 municipalities showing signs of depopulation. Their number increased by 44 in just 20 years.

Today, hundreds of thousands of acres of Europe's most fertile soil type - Thracian Chernozem, which has huge potential for growing vegetables and all kinds of crops, have been destroyed.

Tsekov also explained that today hundreds of thousands of acres of the most fertile land in Europe - Thracian black soil, which has a huge potential for vegetables and all kinds of crops that can be grown.

In his words, the inhabitants of demographic deserts are nearly 3% of Bulgaria’s population, while 20 years ago they totalled 1.8%. The average population density in the demographic deserts in 2001 was five people per square kilometre, and now it is 4.3 people/sq km. "This indicates that the demographic deserts are expanding, but the population there is also declining," the specialist explained.

"No one in Bulgaria has ever studied what specific impact the reduction of the entire population has on the territorial depopulation of small, local communities; on the disintegration of the rural settlement network; on the biological extinction of entire areas in Bulgaria where there is no replacement migration to replace the people in these areas. A characteristic of almost all demographic deserts is that they have an over-ageing population - more than 25% of the population is aged 65 and over, and in many villages not a single person has been born for nearly 30 years now" Tsekov said.

According to the expert, in order to bring young people back to the villages, first many things need to be transformed in the policies of Bulgaria and the European Union, and the most important task is to restore the third- and fourth-class road networks. "One way to do this is through a sustainable electricity supply and a permanent water supply with no shortages" he pointed out. In some parts of Bulgaria such a recovery is not possible as the so-called "terminal depopulation" has occurred. "Nearly 1,000 villages have populations of less than 50 people and there is no way for people from the cities to return to these places," Tsekov added.

Furthermore, а European Foundation of Human Rights research shows that Bulgaria has the highest proportion of unemployed, out-of-school young people aged between 15 and 29. The number is around 200,000. Bulgaria is an absolute record-holder in Europe in this negative trend, with more than 105,000 to 110,000 of these 200,000 people being of Roma origin.

Tsekov said that there are abandoned fertile lands in the depopulated areas that are beginning to reforest themselves. Soil erosion is increasing there because there is no cultivation, the land is becoming less fertile. Forest fires are increasing sharply, water resources are being wasted, and there is great damage to tourism. Bulgaria is thus deprived of income from rural and mountain tourism, which could be much greater if there were decent road and household infrastructure, electricity networks and a constant water supply in those places.

"Severely affected are the entire western border, all municipalities along the border with Serbia, the Central Fore-Balkan and especially the Region of Gabrovo and the southern part of [the Region of] Veliko Tarnovo, the Region of Lovech, [the] Strandzha-Sakar [massif]; the Region of Yambol the southern part of the Region of Burgas. Near Sofia [severely affected] are mainly the border regions - Pernik, Kyustendil'', Tsekov further said.

He explained that for the creation of so-called model villages, detailed information must first be gathered. Specialists should do an on-site visit. They should talk to the locals to find out what is typical in terms of lifestyle and culture for these areas, what is interesting and specific to them. This should happen in all areas at risk of becoming demographic deserts. However, there is no one to carry this out, he stressed.

"We need a significant change in the attitude towards these problems - to trigger public attention, discussions, meetings of experts and ways for them to tour the areas in question. There is a possibility that some of them may not be as bad as we imagine," Tsekov said.

"To attract investors, Bulgaria must first show that it is stable. A country that is constantly torn by political crises and does not have a stable government, cannot attract investors," he warned.