site.btaUBB Forecasts Economic Growth of 1.9% in 2023, 2.3% in 2024

United Bulgarian Bank (UBB) analysts put Bulgaria's third-quarter economic growth at 1.7% on an annual basis in real terms, the bank said.

UBB's Chief Economist Emil Kalchev commented that growth was expected to be lower than in the first and second quarters due to a downward trend in the euro area. Bulgaria's largest trading partner, Germany, fell into a technical recession, which led to a slight slowdown in economic activity during the third quarter in Bulgaria.

Kalchev expects the slower growth trend to continue in the fourth quarter. Expectations are that economic growth in 2023 will be 1.9%. In its September forecast, UBB projected GDP growth of 1.8% in 2023.

The bank expects Bulgaria's economic prospects to continue to depend on trends in the euro area, as well as to be influenced by country-specific factors. UBB expects GDP growth to accelerate to 2.3%, with the average inflation rate falling to 5%.