site.btaUPDATED Alpha Research: Incumbents Are Facing Pivotal Point in Terms of Public Support 

Two months after the election of the new Bulgarian government and just before its first serious test with the adoption of the State Budget Act, the government is facing crucial days in terms of the direction that public support will take and, respectively, of credibility of the new power holders, analysts at Alpha Research commented after a nationally representative survey.

It is part of the regular monitoring by Alpha Research, conducted between February 6 and 14 among 1,060 adult citizens of Bulgaria, through a direct standardized interview with tablets. The study is published on the agency's website and was implemented with own funds.

According to almost all the main indicators that the sociological agency has been monitoring for more than 20 years, people's opinions are highly polarized. Analysts note three main points on which the political resources of the government are based: the predominance of a positive attitude towards the government which has not been measured since 2009; expectations for the implementation of key reforms for the country; maintaining the electoral positions of Continue the Change (CC) since the November elections at a growing distance from opposition parties and smaller coalition partners.

At the same time, a number of the new government's key commitments are being strongly challenged, and there is a risk of unfavourable developments in its public support, sociologists note. Domestically, the steps taken so far to implement the new governance approach are viewed with scepticism not only by the general public, but even by coalition partners.

With differences arising along the "president-prime minister" axis on a number of sensitive public issues, the sympathies, including those of CC supporters, are on the side of President Rumen Radev and not Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, which carries the risk of erosion of the executive branch in future conflicts. In terms of foreign policy, the lack of clear leadership positions and the contradictory statements of the President and ministers regarding Bulgaria's involvement as an active NATO member in the Russia-Ukraine crisis make public opinion hesitant and coalition supporters share diametrically opposed views. These divisions, along with a new approach to negotiations with North Macedonia that has not been sufficiently substantiated, are turning the foreign policy issue into a "hot potato", analysts say, citing key findings from the data analysis.

Assessment of the Activities of Cabinet, President, Parliament

One of the important political resources of the current government is the trust in Kiril Petkov’s cabinet, which started with 35 per cent approval against 23 per cent negative assessments and is the first government since GERB’s first cabinet in 2009 to enjoy a positive initial rating. Prime Minister Kiril Petkov also began his term with a dominant approval of 39 per cent against 21 per cent disapproval, which is, again, unseen credibility since Boyko Borissov’s in 2009.

However, two months after the formation of the ruling majority, the first significant differences in the attitude of the supporters of the coalition parties towards the government have been observed. The highest support is expressed by CC voters: 66 per cent and they are practically the only ones who have no criticism of the Cabinet. The approval drops to 50 per cent among BSP supporters, and among There Is Such a People (TISP) and Democratic Bulgaria (DB) supporters, it ranges between 33 and 36 per cent. The results also show that the most voters interested in politics, who are informed not only by television but also by radio, print and online media, are even more critical with 29 per cent trust and 32 per cent distrust of the Cabinet.

The key to the polarization of opinions at this early stage is the skepticism towards the actual implementation of the announced new model of governance, sociologists note. Alpha Research asked the same questions as when Borissov took office in 2009. One is whether or not the government is composed mainly of competent people and professionals. 65 per cent of respondents considered the ministers from Borissov's first cabinet to be professionals, and now 39 per cent share this opinion regarding Petkov’s. The other question is whether the government is ending the practice of benefiting people and circles close to it. Some 51 per cent were optimistic on this issue in 2009, and now their share is 34 per cent. When asked whether the government will work better next year, 57 per cent of respondents gave a credit of about their confidence in the government’s ability to optimize its work, 57 per cent of respondents gave an affirmative answer in 2009, and 42 per cent did so in the latest survey.

While supporting the government, the electorate of coalition partners BSP, TISP and DB are overwhelmingly critical of each of these three aspects of governance, sociologists say. Alpha Research's 20-year database of public opinion polls shows that in terms of public trust the current government’s approval rating is closest to the launch of the tripartite coalition in 2005, both in values ​​of trust and distrust, and in the amalgam of expectations: on the one hand, the success of the government’s term in office, and on the other - serious skepticism about the gathering of such diverse political entities into a ruling coalition.

After two failed parliaments, the current 47th National Assembly begins its term with identical approval as all others since 2009, sociologists say. Some 18 per cent evaluate its activity positively against 29 per cent negative opinions. The majority of 53 per cent still have no specific impressions. This allows, with sufficient will and competence, to use the opportunities to reach political consensus through legitimate parliamentary mechanisms, rather than through procedural tricks of which people strongly disapprove, analysts say.

According to the data, President Rumen Radev begins his second term with 51 per cent approval and 23 per cent disapproval. He retains his position as the top-ranked institution, drawing support from three main groups: CC with 78 per cent, BSP with 91 per cent, the TISP with 67 per cent. The level of approval for the head of State among the electorate of the ruling parties far exceeds the support for their own government. The only exception is the supporters of DB, among whom the trust in both the government and the President is equal and, as a rule, weaker at 36 and 38 per cent, respectively. This situation is undoubtedly profitable for the President, but for the government it is a double-edged sword because it does not guarantee stable enough support in a situation of conflicting choices, analysts say. At the moment, although disagreements over North Macedonia, changes in Bulgargaz, ways to combat corruption, etc. are quite sparingly expressed publicly, President Radev's theses resonate three times as loud with the support of 34 per cent of respondents, while only 12 per cent would side with Prime Minister Petkov in the event of differences between him and Radev, according to Alpha Research. Some 26 per cent, mostly supporters of the parliamentary opposition, do not share the views of either.

Among the coalition partners, Radev's views are shared by 71 per cent of BSP supporters, 44 per cent of TISP’s, and 38 per cent of CC voters, only 26 per cent of whom share Kiril Petkov’s opinions. Only DB has stronger trust in Petkov’s words and actions than in Radev's: 33 per cent versus 17 per cent, respectively.

According to the Alpha Research analysts, it is too early to say how the president-government relationship will develop in the coming months. However, the fact that in controversial cases the prime minister cannot convincingly defend his position even among supporters of his own party and coalition partners makes the experts identify relations with the president as a risk factor to government stability.

Assessment of the Activity of the Judiciary

Two months after the formation of the current cabinet, Bulgarians' approval of the judiciary remains critically low, and reforms in this area are among the leading expectations of voters. Some 13 per cent have a positive attitude towards the work of the court against 38 per cent with negative assessments. One in two adult citizens shares a neutral opinion, mainly due to poor information about the work of the courts.

Eight per cent have confidence in Prosecutor General Ivan Geshev. Since the middle of 2020, over 50 per cent of adult Bulgarians have consistently expressed a negative attitude towards his activities: 57 per cent in the current survey. The attitude of 36 per cent of Bulgarians is neutral.

Trust in Political Leaders and Parties

Three months after the last parliamentary elections, electoral attitudes remain unchanged, with weak but indicative dynamics in some parties.

CC retains its first place, with 24.4 per cent, with a clear lead on its main opponent GERB - 18.1 per cent, whose support is suffering from four points of erosion. The two opposing processes that have developed in the BSP in recent months - challenging Korneliya Ninova’s leadership because of her policies and poor election results, and consolidation behind her personality because of the return of the Socialists to power, leaves the party in its starting position with no gains, but also without losses. Although she won the internal party battle, Ninova, at least for now, has failed to expand the social influence of the BSP, which remains 9.8 per cent.

The sociologists comment that after losing opportunities to form a government last year, the erosion of the electoral influence of TISP continues with only 6.6 per cent of Bulgarians ready to vote for them.

The support for DB remains unchanged compared to the last elections: 6.4 per cent. After being one of the main voter donors to CC three months ago, Democratic Bulgaria is now uniting its strongest supporters. On a number of issues such as this country's Euro-Atlantic orientation, dialogue with North Macedonia, the government's first actions, etc., DB supporters share very different views than other parties, and this entails higher requirements for DB leaders.

The Movement for Right and Freedoms receives its traditional support from 7.2 per cent of the voters living in Bulgaria.

The three months in Parliament and the sharp confrontational policy making of Vazrazhdane (Revival), especially with regard to green certificates, have allowed it to consolidate its position in the niche of radical formations. By the end of February, it had won 5.2 per cent of the vote, according to the survey.

Despite the fierce clash between the ruling party and the opposition in the first two months, the coalition's weaknesses have not led to an increase in support for the opposition. Concerns about the unleashing of many crises in various sectors, the reluctance to go to new elections and the lack of a convincing alternative, provide scope for action for the new government. However, whether it will structure its actions in the near future and how effectively it will advance the announced reforms will determine whether the government will consolidate and which way public support will sway, Alpha Research points out.