site.btaTurkish Analyst Ferhat Yildirim Comments on Turkiye-Bulgaria Energy and Economic Relations, Turkish Local Elections

The past year 2023 highlighted the role of Turkiye as a country that can play an important role in the diversification of energy supplies to Europe, said in a BTA interview Turkish analyst and communications and media expert Ferhat Yildirim.

Yildirim recalled that at the beginning of 2023, Bulgaria and Turkiye signed an agreement to ensure the transmission of 1.5 billion cubic metres natural gas per year.
This agreement continues as it has a term of 13 years. Energy and energy cooperation will continue to be an important trend in Turkiye's economy in 2024 internationally in cooperation with European countries in the region such as Bulgaria and Greece, said Yildirim. 

"I think that the visit of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Athens at the end of 2023 and the talks with Greek politicians will also have an effect on the development of energy cooperation in the Turkiye-Bulgaria-Greece triad," he said.

Yildirim added that due to their geographical location, Turkiye, Bulgaria and Greece have more advantages compared to European countries for common projects using alternative energy sources such as solar and wind energy, which would become more tangible in the coming years. 

When asked how he would comment on the information of the Turkish media that last year about 1,500,000 Bulgarians visited the border city of Edirne specifically for the market, Yildirim said that the coming of Bulgarians to Edirne to shop "is important for the development of local trade, service , transport". The analyst pointed out that Greeks also often visit the market in Edirne.

Yildirim noted that this type of trade has no added value for the country's economy and cannot solely help achieve  balanced success in trade and economic relations between the two countries, which is necessary in order for the region to develop successfully.

"Turkiye is among the five largest trading partners of Bulgaria. Turkish investments in Bulgaria amount to USD 2.5 billion, about 1,500 Turkish companies are registered in the country. But looking from the other side, the number of Bulgarian companies in Turkiye is significantly below these figures. I believe that there is a need for a balance in the commercial and economic relations with our neighbors Bulgaria and Greece, only in this way can success be achieved for the respective country and for the development of the region as a whole", said the expert.

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Regarding the local elections in Turkiye, which will be held on March 31, Yildirim indicated that he expects their results to reflect both on the country's domestic and foreign policy.

He noted that at the moment, the attention of the Turkish voters is mainly occupied with the provision of livelihood.

The analyst noted that this status quo changed in the previous local elections in 2019, when  the ruling Justice and Development Party lost the largest metropolises of Istanbul and Ankara, as well as other strategic municipalities, a fact that many analysts see as a decline in the party's influence.

"To prevent such comments, the government is throwing all its forces to get back Ankara and Istanbul. For this purpose, the government has united all the tools at its disposal. The opposition, for its part, aims at all costs to keep the metropolises Ankara and Istanbul, but there is no unity in the opposition parties, as was in the parliamentary and presidential elections in 2023. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to announce the  Justice and Development Party candidates for the local elections this Sunday, January 7," Yildirim said.

According to him, it is not possible to predict which party or coalition is more likely to win, because of the strong polarization between the government and opposition parties, a lack of objective opinion polls, data or research.

"I think that although the upcoming elections are local, they will also have an impact on foreign policy. In other words, if a situation occurs where the government is not a winner at the local level, it may create problems for the implementation of long-term contracts and projects or withdraw investments, which will be a loss for our country," the analyst said, adding , that a possible positive result for the opposition could lead to early general elections.

Yildirim predicted that domestically, the government can be expected to announce a general amnesty.

"It was like this before the Justice and Development came to power and it continues like this, it is a practice specific to the Turks, which is not applied in other countries. Traditionally, the government is expected to release additional economic incentives, to introduce some reliefs. Of course, after the elections, the picture changes, the "belt tightening" policy continues. After all, the victory or loss of a party or coalition in the local vote does not mean the end of the world. It remains to be seen which of the two scenarios will come true," Yildirim told BTA.