site.btaNSI President Does Not Rule Out Inflation Rise in Bulgaria Due to Increase in Bread and Electricity Prices

Noting that the National Statistical Institute (NSI) does not make forecasts, NSI President Assoc. Prof. Atanas Atanasov expressed in an interview for BTA his expectation for inflation growth in Bulgaria due to the increase in bread and electricity prices.

"In the first days of the year we see that bakers and restaurateurs are already raising prices in connection with the increase in VAT for the products they produce, we could also expect an increase in inflation in the country. Moreover, bread and derived products are very heavy in the consumer basket. The change in the price of electricity will certainly have an impact on increasing inflation," Atanasov said.

There will be four new goods and services in the inflation basket the prices of which will be monitored by the NSI in 2025, and eight others will drop out. Among those dropped are a PCR test for COVID-19. Instead, they have been replaced by a combination test - a rapid antigen test for COVID-19 and a test to detect influenza A+B. New items are a tumble dryer and a school lunch coupon.

The NSI President said that the classification used in the calculation of inflation in the European Union, COICOP, is changing from 2026 and will better reflect modern consumption patterns, including new categories of goods and services. Thus, statistical data will become more relevant and applicable for economic analyses as well as for informing the public and decision-making at the policy level, Atanasov said.

Bulgaria's accession to Schengen is likely to cause minor difficulties for national statistics in some surveys, such as international tourism. "The NSI conducts one survey where at border crossings people are questioned about the purpose of their trip, which now cannot be done at the Kulata border crossing. At the other border crossings the surveys can be done because at Vidin and Ruse there are crossing fees, people stop and answer questions for us, but at Kulata crossing is free" the NSI President explained. He said, however, that Bulgaria borrows from the experience of the Schengen area countries to collect such data also through information on the movement of mobile phones, allowed by changes in a relevant EU regulation that allows access to so-called private data holders, including data from mobile operators. Bulgaria has a cooperation agreement with Greece and can use the data of overnight tourists in reporting the trips of Bulgarian citizens in Greece, Atanasov said.

In 2025, the NSI will pay more attention to immigration data - in particular under the EU Directive on the conditions of entry and residence of third-country nationals for the purposes of highly qualified employment. The NSI is launching new observations on household consumption and finances, on fast-growing enterprises according to the number of employees, on gender equality in governance and more, the NSI President said. The new Classification of Economic Activities is also effective from January 1, 2025. A new regionalization of the country is also expected to be proposed soon, which will be subject to public consultation, Atanasov added.