site.btaCentre for Analysis and Marketing: Six or Seven Parties to Make it to Next Parliament

Centre for Analysis and Marketing: Six or Seven Parties to Make it to Next Parliament


Sofia, October 2 (BTA) - Six or seven parties will be
represented in the National Assembly that Bulgaria will elect on
October 5, Yulii Pavlov of the Centre for Marketing and
Analysis forecast at a BTA-hosted news conference here on
Thursday. A seven-party parliament is slightly more probable, he
specified.

In a nationally representative survey, conducted among 1,010
respondents between September 25 and 30, the Centre found that
GERB would get 35.5 per cent of the votes of those who will
probably cast ballots, which translates into 97 MPs in a
six-party Parliament or 92 MPs in a seven-party legislature; BSP
Left Bulgaria 21 per cent (57 or 55 MPs, respectively), the
Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) 14 per cent (38 or 36
MPs), the Reformist Bloc 7.2 per cent (19 or 18 MPs), the
Patriotic Front 5.4 per cent (15 or 14 MPs), Bulgaria without
Censorship 5.1 per cent (14 or 13 MPs), Ataka 4.5 per cent (12
MPs), and ABV 2.9 per cent.

Pavlov commented that, surprisingly, Ataka gets a realistic
chance of making it to Parliament, even though its 4.5 per cent
voter support does not guarantee crossing the 4 per cent
electoral threshold. He noted that Ataka's trend is upward.

The Centre for Marketing and Analysis expects GERB to poll 33-37
per cent on October 5, BSP Left Bulgaria 19-23 per cent, the
MRF 13-16 per cent, the Reformist Bloc 6.3-7.8 per cent, the
Patriotic Front 5-6.5 per cent, Bulgaria without Censorship
5-5.6 per cent, Ataka 3.5-5 per cent, and ABV 2.2-3.8 per cent.

A total of 51.5 per cent of those polled said they will
certainly vote on October 5 and have made their choice, 17.4 per
cent will vote but are hesitant, 12 per cent are undecided, and
17.4 per cent will definitely not vote.

Those who rather plan to avail themselves of the right to
express a preference are 28.6 per cent, 29.3 per cent said
"rather not", and 21.7 per cent have not yet made up their mind.

As many as 77.8 per cent of respondents said they would not sell
their vote, and 6.9 per cent would agree to do so for at least
500 leva, 0.8 per cent for not less than 200 leva, 2 per cent
for not less than 100 leva, and 2.2 per cent for not less than
50 leva.

Asked, if it was up to them, who should be prime minister after
the elections, 17.5 per cent answered Boyko Borissov, 2.2 per
cent Sergei Stanishev, 2.1 per cent Mihail Mikov, 1.8 per cent
Kristalina Georgieva, 1.8 per cent Georgi Purvanov, 1.7 per cent
Meglena Kuneva, 1.6 per cent Nikolai Barekov, 1.5 per cent
Valeri Simeonov, 1.4 per cent Volen Siderov, and 53 per cent did
not answer.