site.btaSecond Round between Tsacheva and Radev Most Likely to Decide Presidential Elections - Gallup

Second Round between Tsacheva and Radev Most Likely to Decide Presidential Elections - Gallup

Sofia, November 4 (BTA) - In all likelihood, the presidential elections will be decided in a second round, most probably between GERB candidate Tsetska Tsacheva and Socialist-backed Rumen Radev, Gallup International Balkan found in a nationally representative survey, conducted among 820 persons between October 24 and 31.

Of those who can be expected to cast ballots, at this point 27.2 per cent would vote for Tsacheva, 23.1 per cent for Radev, 11.5 per cent for Krassimir Karakachanov, 7.6 per cent for Vesselin Mareshki, 7.3 per cent for Plamen Oresharski, 5.1 per cent for Traicho Traikov, 4.9 per cent for Ivailo Kalfin, 2.7 per cent for Tatyana Doncheva, and 5.7 per cent for None Of The Above.

The ranking may shift because of the narrow margins between some candidates. The situation is exceedingly volatile, the sociologists specified.

On the basis of the declared readiness to go to the polls, voter turnout can be expected at some 55 per cent. This, however, may change, considering that voting is compulsory.

At this point, Radev leads in the run-off on 53 per cent, compared to 47 per cent for Tsacheva. If Tsacheva and Karakachanov reach the second round, Karakachanov is likely to win on 51 per cent, while Tsacheva would garner 49 per cent. This, however, are just hypothetical options which cannot possibly take account of the psychological situation after the first round, the appeals of various party leaders, the behaviour of the various electorates, and the influence of the None Of The Above option, which will be available in the second round as well, Gallup notes, specifying that the data cannot serve as a forecast.

A total of 45 per cent of eligible voters have declared that they will participate in the national referendum, but turnout in referendums so far has been below the declared level.

In late October and early November, 82 per cent of those expected to vote in the referendum declared that they will answer "yes" to the question "Do you favour electing National Representatives by an absolute majority in a two-round majoritarian system?", 15 per cent would answer "no", and 3 per cent would not answer at all. The question "Do you favour introducing compulsory voting in elections and referendums?" would get 58 per cent "yes" answers, 37 per cent "no" answers, and 5 per cent blank answers. The last question, "Do you favour setting the annual state subsidy granted for financing political parties and coalitions at 1 lev per valid vote received at the last parliamentary elections?", would receive 87 per cent answers in the positive, 11 per cent answers in the negative, and 2 per cent would ignore this question.