site.bta GERB Presidential Candidate Keeps Lead over Socialist-backed Rival in AMC Poll

GERB Presidential Candidate Keeps Lead over Socialist-backed Rival in AMC Poll

Sofia, October 24 (BTA) - A poll conducted by the Analyses and Marketing Centre (AMC) found that just over 21 per cent of all interviewed respondents would back the presidential candidate of the ruling GERB party, Tsetska Tsacheva, at the November 6 election while 14.8 per cent would vote for Roumen Radev, supported by the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP).

The poll, conducted among 1,009 people between October 15 and 22, also found that 32 per cent of those likely to vote would back Tsacheva with 22 per cent opting for Radev.

Krassimir Karakachanov (United Patriots) will be backed by 6.4 per cent of all voters and by 9.1 per cent of those likely to vote, Ivailo Kalfin (ABV) will be backed by 4.9 per cent of all voters and by 6.3 per cent of those likely to vote, Traicho Traikov (Reformist Bloc) will be backed by 4.5 per cent of all voters and by 5.6 per cent of those likely to vote, Veselin Mareshki (independent) will be backed by 4.2 per cent of all voters and by 5.3 per cent of those likely to vote, Tatyana Doncheva (Movement 21 - National Movement for Surge and Stability) will be backed by 3.3 per cent of all voters and by 4.5 per cent of those likely to vote, and Plamen Oresharski (nominating committee) will be backed by 1.2 per cent of all voters and 2.8 per cent of those likely to vote.

The none-of-the-above box will be ticked by 6.9 per cent of all polled respondents and by 5.7 per cent of those likely to vote.

The leading three positions are beyond contention now and any shake-up there would be very difficult to achieve, AMC's Yulii Pavlov said.

In a run-off, the margin between Tsacheva and Radev would be cut substantially. Just over 27 per cent of all respondents would back Tsacheva in a run-off with 25.9 per cent supporting Radev. Among those likely to vote, 43 per cent would support Tsacheva and 41 per cent would back Radev. Ten per cent of respondents are undecided.

The outcome from a run-off is unclear and will depend on several factors, including endorsements from candidates that have not made the cut, Pavlov said. Tsacheva and Radev are polling close in a potential run-off because with the exception of Traikov's supporters, the rest of the voters supporting a candidate that has not advanced to the second round would do one of two things - half of them would not vote with two-thirds of the other half likely to back Radev and one third likely to support Tsacheva, Pavlov said.

The poll found that 55.2 per cent of respondents believe the next president should be a man and 22 per cent believe it should be a woman. Just over 45 per cent of respondents favor a president with Euro-Atlantic orientation while 22.9 per cent favor pro-Russian orientation. A career politician is the preferred presidential choice of 52.3 per cent of respondents while 32.7 per cent would like to see a political new-comer elected.

The pollsters expect 3.4-3.5 million Bulgarians to go to the polls with turnout unlikely to drop below 3.2 million or to exceed 3.8 million. Just over 74 per cent of respondents said they were aware that voting is mandatory but only 57 per cent knew what were the consequences for non-voters.

Fifty-seven per cent of respondents said they will definitely vote in the referendum that will be held simultaneously with the presidential vote with 25.5 per cent still undecided and 13.7 per cent saying they will not vote.

Just over 57 per cent of respondents support electing MPs through a majority-rule system with absolute majority in two rounds of voting; 43.8 per cent support introducing mandatory voting in elections and referendums; and 62.5 per cent support providing political parties and coalitions an annual subsidy where they get 1.0 lev per garnered vote.

Fifty-two per cent of respondents replied with "mostly yes" when asked if Bulgaria should support extending the economic sanctions against Russia over its annexation of Crimea and the events in Eastern Ukraine with 16.9 per cent replying "mostly no."