site.btaEC Raises Forecast for 2024 Bulgarian GDP Growth to 1.9%, Expects Lower Inflation

The European Commission presented Thursday its winter economic forecast, in which it estimated the growth of the Bulgarian economy in 2023 at 2%. This coincides with the EC assessment presented last autumn.

Economic activity in Bulgaria has faced a number of challenges, the European Commission pointed out, including weaker demand on foreign markets for Bulgarian goods, higher interest rates in the Eurozone and continued pressure due to high prices.

Bulgaria's real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase by 1.9% in 2024. This represents an increase over the European Commission's fall forecast for Bulgarian GDP growth of 1.8% this year. For comparison, in January, the Bulgarian National Bank predicted a GDP growth of 2.5%, based on data as of January 11, 2024. The Ministry of Finance's forecast for the adoption of the budget assumed a GDP growth of 3.2%.

For 2025, the EC predicted that the Bulgarian economy will grow by 2.5%, which largely coincides with its autumn forecast.

Domestic consumption is expected to be a major factor in Bulgaria's economic growth.

The European Commission predicted that inflation in Bulgaria, measured against the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HIPC), will decrease significantly to 3.4% in 2024. In its autumn forecast, the EC predicted that the annual increase in prices in this country would reach 4% hundred this year.

The forecast for annual inflation in Bulgaria for 2025 is for a growth of 2.9%, and it does not change compared to its report from the autumn.