site.btaWB Lowers Economic Growth Forecast for Bulgarian Economy, Raises It for Global Economy in 2024

The World Bank Tuesday lowered the economic growth forecast for the Bulgarian economy while raising it for the global economy in 2024.

The WB says in its Global Economic Prospects that despite an improvement in near-term prospects, the global outlook remains subdued by historical standards. In 2024-25, growth is set to underperform its 2010s average in nearly 60% of economies, comprising over 80% of the global population. Downside risks predominate, including geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, higher-for-longer interest rates, and climate-related disasters, the analysis says.

The WB analysts point out that global cooperation is needed to safeguard trade, support green and digital transitions, deliver debt relief, and improve food security. They also point out that public investment can boost productivity and catalyze private investment, promoting long-run growth, and say that comprehensive fiscal reforms are essential to address ongoing fiscal challenges in small states, including those arising from heightened exposure to external shocks. 

Bulgaria's real gross domestic product (GDP), based on market prices, grew by 1.8% in 2023, according to World Bank estimates. The analysts expect growth to pick up pace this year and next, but slower than forecasted earlier.

Bulgaria's economy is forecast to grow by 2.1% on an annual basis in 2024, by 3.1% in 2025 and by 2.7% in 2026.

The GDP growth forecast for this year is adjusted by 0.3 percentage points downward for 2024 and by 0.2 percentage points for 2025 (compared to projections in January).

The region of Central Europe, where Bulgaria belongs in the WB Global Economic prospects, is registering weak economic growth due to stagnation in Poland and the effect of the slowdown in the eurozone economy on Central European countries.