site.btaMedia Review: October 29

OVERVIEW OF OCTOBER 27 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

All media report on the results of the results of the snap parliamentary elections that took place on October 27.

Trud frontpages an analysis of several political analysts based on the election results of the October 27 elections. According to them, a government of national consensus is the only viable option. Petko Petkov, CEO of Gallup, states that GERB-UDF should take the political responsibility of forming a regular government with Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB). Political psychologist Antoaneta Hristova says that a government will not be formed before January 2025 due to significant disagreements between GERB-UDF and CC-DB. In her opinion, their coalition will be possible only after the Supreme Judicial Council elects Borislav Sarafov as regular Prosecutor General. Political scientist Tatyana Burudzhieva argues that a regular government is viable with the first mandate, which is expected to be given to GERB-UDF, as they are the largest party in the new Parliament.

24 Chasa writes that GERB leader Boyko Borissov has presented his terms to CC-DB. He considers himself an acceptable option for prime minister and does not concur with CC-DB’s idea for a prime minister equally distant from all political forces. Borissov states that in an uncertain geopolitical situation, with BGN 18 billion budget deficit and tense relations with North Macedonia, the country needs experienced politician, instead of one that “does not have the courage to make decisions”.

Trud writes that according to an observer of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), scepticism towards the election credibility is evident due to the numerous failures of machine voting devices. The leader of the PACE delegation in Bulgaria, Alfred Heer, recommended changes to the electoral law, adding that the democracy in Bulgaria is clearly in crisis, with traditional parties being eroded and populist movements on the rise. Heer says that the caretaker governments have discredited the natural link between election cycles and forming regular governments and that the October 27 elections did not provide an outing from the political impasse yet.

24 Chasa writes that a triple coalition is necessary for a stable government, but that there are rumours of CC-DB already planning to “exhaust” GERB-UDF with new elections.

Telegraph notes that the two biggest entities in Parliament, GERB-UDF and CC-DB would need 15 more MP to have a majority of 121, if they chose to coalesce. Political expert Lyubomir Stefanov told the daily that while there are many scenarios that would form a government, all of them involve GERB-UDF and CC-DB. He noted that potential partners of such a coalition could be BSP - United Left, There Is Such a People (TISP) and the Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) Party, but definitely not the far-right party Vazrazhdane. He added that hidden support could also come from the two political entities that formed after the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) split – the MRF - New Beginning Coalition and the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms Coalition (ARF).

Trud has an interview with political analyst Stoycho Stoychev, according to whom the chances of a regular government in the new Parliament are higher due to the fact that the large number of parties diminishes the influence of each and every one of them individually. This reality, combined with the election fatigue of seven consequent parliamentary elections would, in Stoychev’s opinion, compel the political forces to reach long-term compromise. He also says that the eventual prime minister might be a professor, general or medic, as such professional profiles are largely acceptable for the Bulgarian voters.

24 Chasa publishes an interview with sociologist Evelyna Slavkova, who says that the public will know whether the politicians “have learned their lesson” according to the amount of time it would take them to choose National Assembly Chair. She adds that the political uncertainty was not resolved by the October 27 elections and that the Bulgarian public is not obliged to assist the political forces if they are not willing to reach an agreement among themselves. Asked on the possible configurations for a regular government, Slavkova commented that a coalition between GERB-UDF and CC-DB would need either BSP – United Left or There Is Such a People (TISP) as a third partner. She adds that the MRF - New Beginning would also express willingness to support a government. She draws parallel with the model implemented in the second government of Boyko Borissov (in power between 2014 and 2017), where a two-party coalition had conjunctural support for different issues among other parliamentary forces, saying that such a scenario in the current National Assembly is viable. 

Trud cites France-Presse, Associated Press, Aljazeera, Reuters and Hurriyet, all of whom state that GERB-UDF’s electoral victory does not guarantee a stable regular government, as it does not have enough parliamentary seats and would have to parlay with other political forces.

Trud cites the analysis of MEP Alexander Yordanov (UDF/European People's Party), who calls on the other parties to support GERB-UDF’s efforts in forming a government. Trud also publishes the opinion of Krystian Szkwarek, who expresses scepticism that a possible reconciliation between GERB-UDF and CC-DB is achievable.

Another political expert, Daniel Stefanov, said in an interview for Telegraph that having a relatively fragmented parliament with eight parties in it, as is the current one, means that forming a majority could be a challenge. That is especially true for tasks such as nominating members of the Supreme Judicial Council, which require a supermajority of 160 MPs out of the total of 240. Stefanov warns that if this Parliament fails to form a government, the next snap elections may see an even more fragmented Parliament, with some parties having too extreme views making it impossible to reach consensus with their relatively moderate counterparts.

Duma's front page reports on BSP - United Left having improved on its results from the previous elections on June 9, 2024, both percentagewise and it terms of total number of votes cast for them. On Sunday, 184,403 people or 7.57% of all votes cast went to BSP compared to 151,560 people or 7.06% back in June. Another article in the daily alleges that both GERB and MRF - New Beginning have paid off members of pensioners clubs as part of a vote buying scheme.

Another article in the newspaper by former Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) MP Aleksandar Simov notes that despite the socialists' slight improvement, they hardly have a reason to celebrate, as the BSP has been "freefalling" at least since the 2017 elections, when it won 955,490 votes. That number was cut in half to 480,146 in 2021 and continued to decline steadily over the next three years. Simov called this a political catastrophe and criticized former BSP leader Korneliya Ninova, Georgi Svilenski and Ivan Chenchev for trying to take the party for themselves.

On the bTV morning talk show CC-DB former MP Kremena Kuneva said that the October 27 elections were among the most flawed. She added that none of the key vote buyers were detained. GERB-UDF former MP Radomir Cholakov, who was also a guest of the show, responded that the elections were fair and that it is dangerous to speak of unfair and flawed elections, since there were no alerts of significant irregularities.

bTV also featured a conversation with political commentators Valeria Veleva and Georgi Lozanov. Veleva stated that Borissov cannot compromise anymore, lest he loses his own party. In Lozanov’s opinion, the only viable option would be a GERB-UDF minority government. 

In the Bulgarian National Television morning talk show, political commentators Svetoslav Malinov, Georgi Harizanov and Slavi Vasilev reached a consensus that a triple coalition is achievable in the current political constellation of the National Assembly. In Malinov’s opinion, the parties should adopt dialogic tone in order to achieve accord. Harizanov and Vasilev said that the political situation in the new Parliament is confusing.

In an interview for Nova TV, the leader of MECh Radostin Vasilev said that a potential coalition between his party, CC-DB, Vazrazhdane and TISP would be the "the Bulgarian citizens' desirable concept". These four entities would be able to form a majority with a combined count of 122 MPs. Vasilev added: "[MRF - New Beginning leader Delyan] Peevski, [GERB leader Boyko] Borissov and [ARF leader Ahmed] Dogan must be kept out of power in Bulgaria. The math shows that a possible alliance against them would have a majority of 122 MPs. If we keep waiting, there will be fewer." He stated that parties with more than 300,000 votes such as GERB-UDF, CC-DB and Vazrazhdane should state their intentions and criticized them for staying silent.

The Bulgarian National Radio has an interview with journalist Kristiyan Yulzari, who said that voters, who chose “None of the above” (Do not support anyone) do so in order to avoid supporting current strong parties in their respective region. In his opinion, these voters should not be underestimated, as around 82,000 people have chosen that option.

An in-depth article in mediapool.bg looks at the results of the parliamentary snap elections that will form the 51st National Assembly. The author makes comparisons to the 43rd National Assembly, which was formed in 2014. Some similarities between the two parliaments are: eight parties crossed the 4% threshold necessary to enter parliament; GERB was the first political force with a convincing lead over the second (even though their popularity has shrunk by about 7 percentage points since 2014); the smallest parties have barely crossed the 4% threshold.

There are however some important differences. Today, the MRF is split in two, the MRF - New Beginning and the ARF, but the two warring MRF factions have greater overall support compared to the 2014 results. There is also a 9th party in 2024, Velichie [Grandeur], which got 3.999% of the vote. Since Velichie needs only 20 or 30 votes more to enter Parliament, this sets the stage for judicial sagas that have not been seen in Bulgaria to this day, Mediapool notes.

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In an interview for Nova TV's morning talk show, Kristiyan Yulzari of factcheck.bg discussed the significance of the ballot option "None of the above" [I do not support anyone]. The expert said: "There is a controversy on social media. The topic of discussion is whether this vote has weight and whether it is meaningful. [...] In Bulgaria we have several types of elections - parliamentary and majority elections for local authorities, mayors and for the president, which is also a majority vote. People who vote with 'None of the above' are included in the turnout measurement. That is, everyone who voted, including those with invalid ballots, are added together and divided by the number of voters on the voter roll to get the turnout."

VOTE BUYING

In an op-ed published on Duma's front page, Valentin Georgiev criticizes caretaker Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev for failing to take sufficient measures to tackle the illegal practice of vote buying. According to Georgiev, while arrests are made, they are mostly put on as a show. The investigation does not aim high enough, and no political entity is ever revealed to actually be behind the trade with votes. The article declares that the mafia in Bulgaria has won and now runs the country.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Bulgarian journalist Kostadin Filipov writes a political analysis for Trud in the aftermath of North Macedonia’s PM Hristijan Mickoski’s meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Filipov states that Mickoski’s preference to Borissov as an possible Bulgarian PM stems from the odd notion that since VMRO-DPMNE and GERB are in the European People’s Party, tensions between Sofia and Skopje would be lowered.

ENERGY

Trud writes that Bulgaria is among the EU member states with cheapest household electricity prices. The only member state with cheaper prices is Hungary. The article states that Bulgaria remains the only EU member, who has not liberalized the electricity market.

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Duma writes that electricity imports have gone up by 37% between January and September 2024. The article states that Bulgaria has imported electricity mostly from Romania and Greece. At the same time, the Bulgarian electricity export has gone down by 12%, with Greece being the main importer of Bulgarian electricity, followed by Romania. Electricity production between January and September 2024 is down by 7.9%, compared to the same period in 2023.

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Valentin Kunev, manager of the Balkan and Black Sea Petroleum Association, told Telegraph that fuel prices have been dropping over the past month and will likely continue to decrease against the backdrop of the tensions in the Middle East with expectations that Israel would take retaliatory actions against Iran. While Iran controls up to 4% of the global supplies of oil, other suppliers such as the US, Brazil, Canada and Libya remain stable, Kunev said.

REAL ESTATE

Trud has several articles on the real estate market in Bulgaria. According to them, the interest in apartments in downtown Sofia is rising and buyers are generally more interested in apartments than in houses.

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Duma writes that the real estate market is already expecting Bulgaria’s accession to the euro area. The article cites Alexander Bochev, chair of the Bulgarian National Real Estate Association, who states that currently the market is confused due to the uncertainty of whether or not the country will adopt the euro currency.

HEALTHCARE

Telegraph's front page quotes data from the National Statistical Institute, according to which the number of employees who took at least a two-day sick leave in the first half of 2024 has increased by nearly 100,000 year-on-year, from 561,515 to 653,597. The article suggests that the main reason for that is amended legislation, which in 2023 obligated the employer to cover the first three days of sick leave. In 2024, that period changed to two days, while the third one now gets covered by the National Social Security Institute (NSSI). Consequently, the NSSI covered some BGN 352 million between January and June 2023, compared to BGN 465 million for the same period of 2024. The two most common reasons for getting a sick leave in Bulgaria are viral infections and upper respiratory tract infections.

CULTURE

24 Chasa features an article about 14-year-old Martin Panayotov, who is already programming videogames. Panayotov ranked second on the International Kids Coding Competitions.