site.btaDivision between France's Nationalist Parties Won't Lead to Grand Coalition between Them in EP

The victory of the French National Rally and the good results of other nationalist parties across Europe change the context in the European Parliament without a doubt. They will now have more than a quarter of the seats in the European Parliament (EP), Ognyan Atanasov, deputy director of the Legal and Institutional Affairs Directorate at Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne University, told BTA in an interview.

"But firstly, they will not be able to form a majority, and secondly - the division between these parties will not, in my opinion, lead to a grand coalition of nationalist organisations," said Atanasov, who has a PhD in international law.

He gave the example of the French party's disassociation from Alternative for Germany and the fact that it wants a rapprochement with Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy, however, Italian Prime Minister and leader of this formation has not yet commented this question.

At the end of May, the French political force broke off relations with its problematic allies in Alternative for Germany, which was expelled from the Identity and Democracy group in the European Parliament - of which the French National Rally is a part - after a series of scandals with one of its leaders, Maximilian Krah.

Atanasov also commented on French President Emmanuel Macron's shocking move to schedule parliamentary elections for the end of June after the defeat of his Renaissance party in the European elections.

"The swiftness of Macron's decision and the fact that he joined the live broadcast yesterday [Sunday] just 30 minutes after the announcement of the results shows that this decision was actually well thought out", Atanasov said. According to him, "there is no political force more prepared than Renaissance for quick, early elections in France".

In his words, the majoritarian system of elections in France will make it likely that in the second round the clash in the different constituencies will be precisely between these two parties.

"From then on, there are two possibilities - either Renaissance will win and manage to realise an outright majority in parliament, something they don't have at the moment, or National Rally will continue to surprise and dominate. Then Macron will have to appoint a prime minister from the National Rally, but this will mean that they will rule together with Macron for three years until the next presidential elections, which will reduce their support - something they have as an opposition party at the moment", Atanasov said.

The Brothers of Italy and the National Rally have significant differences, for example on the war in Ukraine. Meloni is among the most ardent supporters of providing support to Ukraine against the Russian invasion, while National Rally is against sending weapons to help Kyiv.