site.btaDefence Intelligence Agency Sees Shifting Global Order, Disrespect for International Law as Persistent Trend

“There is a persistent trend towards a shift of global order, disrespect for international law, and preference to use military force as a mechanism for attaining political objectives,” Bulgaria’s Defence Intelligence Service (DIS) says in its 2023 annual report.

“In 2023, the global security environment was characterized by a high intensity of crisis processes, deepening confrontation of global forces and rivalry among regional entities,” the report points out. “These destabilizing factors arose mainly as a result of the actions of Russia and of other authoritarian states. As a result of Moscow’s aspiration to seek a cooperation alternative after the isolation imposed on it by the West [because of the invasion in Ukraine], new supra-regional politico-economic blocs are taking shape, and security and defence policy-related communities will probably emerge in future, too,” the DIS notes.

“The Kremlin’s purpose to re-establish its influence in the post-Soviet space and the resort to military force to this end have substantially heightened the level of conventional and asymmetrical threats in the security environment and provide sustained prerequisites to militarize international relations,” the document says further.

“In 2023, a DIS officer was nominated and approved to occupy the position of Director of the Intelligence Directorate at the European Union Military Staff (April 2024). For the first time, Bulgaria will be represented at the top position in the Union’s intelligence establishment.”

The EU Whoiswho names this Director as Danail Baev.

Ukraine

“At the regional level, two principal tendencies characterized Russia’s war against Ukraine: an augmentation of the Kremlin’s territorial claims and its aspiration to gradually escalate the military conflict. Kyiv failed in its efforts to implement an effective counteroffensive. Prerequisites emerged for waging war of entrenched positions and for a possible future ‘freeze’ of the conflict. The chances of reaching lasting peace by diplomatic means receded,” the DIS comments.

According to the report, “Moscow’s escalating nuclear rhetoric, along with its operations for discrediting the arms control regime, increase the risks of a nuclear conflict and/or a ‘manmade’ accident involving nuclear facilities.” “The food supply manipulation and the energy blackmail of Russia’s state leadership artificially generate problems and tensions of socio-political and financial-economic nature in countries of Europe, Asia and Africa, and there are no clear mechanisms for addressing these problems and tensions,” the document points out.

“In a regional context, the high-intensity hostilities substantially enhance the danger of misjudging the situation, of incidents between Russian military assets and military assets of countries in the region and an ensuing risk of escalation. Russia deliberately restricted the freedom of navigation and the air traffic in and above the Black Sea. Under the pretext of conducting military exercises, it declared danger zones for a prolonged period of time, including in the exclusive economic zones of Bulgaria and other Black Sea countries. The maritime space remains at risk of mines,” the report says further.

Western Balkans

“Despite the serious efforts and commitments of the international community, tensions in the Western Balkans remain high. Attempts to achieve domestic-policy goals by use of military force and/or redrawing borders nominally in accordance with international law cannot be ruled out,” the DIS notes. “This is indicated by the growing military potential of particular countries. The lack of progress in the dialogue and relations between Serbia and Kosovo and the Bosnian Serbs’ destructive separatist actions remain key destabilizing factors. The international initiatives combining incentives with pressure manage to maintain the relative stability despite certain sporadic incidents while, at the same time, the prerequisites for tensions are retained,” the report observes.

“The powerholders in the Republic of North Macedonia failed to push through the necessary constitutional amendments, and the parliamentary and presidential elections exacerbated the anti-Bulgarian rhetoric,” the DIS writes.

“Migration flows toward Europe, including through Bulgaria’s territory, are a persistent problem affecting adversely the security environment. The migration pressure on Europe is increasing annually along the Balkan and Mediterranean routes.”

The Defence Intelligence Service also sees expanded possibilities to exploit migration processes in hybrid operations targeted against the EU. “It should be borne in mind that migration flows are used as a staple cover for the infiltration of members and followers of terrorist groups and for the setting up of sleeper cells. This spells a persistently high risk of penetration of radicalized and terrorist elements in Europe,” the DIS report points out.

In 2024, the Service continues to prioritize mainly monitoring the security environment for the purpose of early detection of and warning about national and collective security risks and threats.