site.btaPolitical Scientists Cite Fatigue, Vagueness about Possible Coalitions and Putting off Important Problems as Reasons for Listless Campaign

Political Scientists Cite Fatigue, Vagueness about Possible Coalitions and Putting off Important Problems as Reasons for Listless Campaign

Sofia, October 2 (BTA) - The election campaign was a listless
one, political scientists told BTA, citing several reasons.
According to Dimiter Ganev of BBSS Gallup, this is due to
fatigue as Bulgaria has constantly been in an election campaign
for more than a year now while the main political formations are
pleased with the results of the social surveys. Daniel Smilov
of the Centre for Liberal Strategies thinks that the reasons for
this are putting off the solution of important state problems
for after the elections and the situation of the possible
post-election coalitions which will be determined ad hoc
according to the results. In turn, Antonii Gulubov calls the
campaign "listless and with a guilty conscience", stating that
politicians have nothing to say to the voters.

In fact, Bulgaria has been in a permanent election campaign
since February last year and there is no way this cannot have an
impact, Ganev said. In addition, now all of the more serious
contenders are satisfied with the results they see in the
surveys - GERB is the winner, the Bulgarian Socialist Party
(BSP) cannot lead in the elections in any way, the Movement for
Rights and Freedoms (MRF) is stable, and the smaller ones like
the Reformist Bloc, Bulgaria without Censorship and the
Patriotic Front are slightly over the 4 per cent barriers. None
of them is ready to make sharp moves because they could lose
what they have already gained, he noted.

According to Ganev's observations, the campaign has not made an
essential impact on voters. Judging by the latest surveys, what
happened in the last month was that the Patriotic Front has
gained a firm foothold and Ataka has increased its chances
slightly by approaching the 4 per cent barrier.

Ganev thinks none of the parties has succeeded in popularizing
its platform seriously or its vision of governance, although all
of the more serious contenders have declared them. Nor is there
distinctive talk against opponents, with a few exceptions. No
one dares to resort to confrontation because of the uncertainty
about that what the configuration after October 5 will be and
the mystery as to who will have to rub shoulders with whom is
toning down sharp political collisions, he explained.

In Ganev's opinion, it is highly improbable that there might be
a grand surprise at the end of the campaign, although such a
possibility should not be written off. None of the large parties
will go after a last-minute scandal because this is a risky
undertaking, from which they could benefit but also lose a lot.
He forecast that the chances of a stable government and a
majority after the elections depend on how many parties will win
seats in Parliament.

Smilov sees the reasons for the listless campaign in two
directions. The first one is that the important issues facing
the country were left to be resolved after the vote. The
campaigns of the main contenders hardly mention clear-cut
commitments what will be done with Corpbank and the banking
sphere in general, or the energy industry sector, he cited as
examples.

In addition, in Smilov's opinion, the bulk of the parties (with
the exception of the Reformist Bloc) have left the door open for
the opportunity to form a coalition with every one of the other
political forces. This leads to the conclusion that there will
be a situational, ad hoc coalition after the elections,
depending on the results of the vote, he said.

All this vagueness and variability of the political process
makes the campaign meaningless to a certain extent - why should
you invest a lot of funds and effort to popularize your platform
when it is clear that the most varied coalitions might be made
after the elections and, consequently, a totally different
mixture of policies might emerge, Smilov commented.

According to Gulubov, the campaign is listless and with a guilty
conscience because it is obvious that this model of a party
system is completely drained and the politicians do not have
anything to say to the voters. The horizon which is mentioned is
extremely low and Bulgarians need some perspective, he thinks.
The time proved too long for meaningless statements and that is
precisely why there has been radicalization in the last days of
the campaign, he pointed out.

The political scientist is of the opinion that the campaign has
had a rather negative influence on the voters since it has made
those who were uncertain whether to go and cast their vote give
up the idea. There were some optimistic expectations for a
higher turnout in the beginning of the summer, but it is quite
probable that they will not come true, Gulubov forecast. When
there is no higher turnout, when the same level of voters is
preserved, there are no grounds to expect a marked change in the
political configuration, he said.