site.btaAfter Nearly Three Decades of Delay, First Turkmen Gas Flows to Turkiye

After almost three decades of negotiations and delays, the first Turkmen gas is expected to flow to Turkiye on March 1. The move will have limited market impact given the low initial volumes of the gas flow but represents a major symbolic move for both the country and Europe, experts say. 

The agreement signed between Turkiye and Turkmenistan to start supplying Turkmen gas to Turkiye is the first time a Central Asian country will supply gas directly to Turkiye, which is seeking to diversify its energy sources. The process of negotiating natural gas supplies from Turkmenistan began in 1997, Turkish state-run TRT Haber television said.

Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar described the agreement as a "historic step in energy cooperation between the two countries" and highlighted its importance for the security of natural gas supplies to Turkiye and the region. 

"With this agreement, which we have been working on for many years, we will make further progress in the strategic cooperation between the two countries, while strengthening the security of natural gas supplies to our country and region," Bayraktar said in a statement quoted by Reuters.

Turkiye currently relies on a combination of gas from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, which reaches it via pipelines, as well as LNG imports from various suppliers. Russia accounts for 42.27% of Ankara's total natural gas imports, amounting to 50.48 bcm, according to 2023 data from Turkiye’s Energy Market Regulatory Authority. At the same time, 896.3 mcm of gas was exported through Turkiye to European countries such as Bulgaria (42%), Greece (24%), Switzerland (23%) and Romania (11%), according to the same report. 

Turkmenistan ranks fourth in the world after Russia, Iran and Qatar in terms of the amount of natural gas reserves it holds, estimated at 13.9 trillion cubic metres. Its annual production, according to data from 2023 published by the Anadolu Agency, is of 80.6 bcm.  

Under the agreement between the two countries, 1.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Turkmenistan is expected to reach Turkiye by the end of the year, local media reported. These deliveries will be made through Iran as a transit country under a swap deal. 

The aim is to gradually increase the volume of gas supplies to 15 bcm and to provide Turkiye with 300 bcm of Turkmen gas over 20 years, Bayraktar was quoted as saying during his visit to Turkmenistan last year.

However, the transmission of larger volumes to Turkiye is hampered by the lack of necessary infrastructure, and the key to realizing this goal lies in the implementation of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project (from Turkmenistan to Europe via the seabed through the territory of Azerbaijan), experts explain. 

Ashgabat and Baku have long been considering the possibility of laying a gas pipeline with a capacity of 30 bcm along the Caspian Sea bed from the coast of Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan, where it could connect with the existing South Caucasus Gas Pipeline (Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum), feeding the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline and the Trans-Adriatic Gas Pipeline.

So far, however, the project's implementation has hit a wall, primarily due to the dispute over the rights to hydrocarbon deposits in the Caspian Sea, which has been fought for years between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, the Turkish newspaper “Takvim” noted. In addition to this obstacle, Luke Coffey of the US-based Hudson Institute mentions obstacles posed by countries such as Russia and Iran. 

"As neighbouring Caspian states, Iran and Russia have blocked the project for years. Their official reasons are environmental, including the potential impact on the increasingly fragile Caspian ecosystem. The real motive, however, is probably that neither country wants to compete with Turkmenistan's gas exports," Luke Coffey points out in an analysis published on the institute's website.

Making Turkmen gas supplies available to Turkiye, and from there to Europe, fits Ankara's desire to position itself as a major energy hub in the region. The gas deal with Turkmenistan, together with the construction of the infrastructure needed to transport Turkmen gas to Turkiye and then to world markets, will reinforce this objective.

"The more supply options there are, the better. Hubs need diversity of supply. Gas supplies from Turkmenistan, even in small quantities, will help make the idea of a hub a reality," Julian Bowden, senior visiting fellow at the Oxford Energy Institute, told Anatolian News Agency. 

"A small swap of 1-2 billion cubic metres a year through Iran would have little market impact for Turkiye or Europe, but its symbolic impact would be large," the expert concluded.