site.btaMediana Poll: GERB, Socialists Retain Potential Voters, Divided by 5 Per Cent Ratings Gap

Mediana Poll: GERB, Socialists Retain Potential Voters, Divided by  5 Per Cent Ratings Gap

Sofia, June 17 (BTA) - The two main political formations in
Bulgaria - GERB and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) - do not
 have a significant increase or drop in the number of potential
voters but just a slight rise in the last three months, and the
ratings gap between them is approximately 5 per cent. These are
the results of a nationally representative survey conducted by
the Mediana polling agency among 1,004 Bulgarians between June
12 and 15.

The data show that if the general elections were held today,
GERB would get 23.3 per cent of the votes, BSP-Left Bulgaria
18.7 per cent, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms 8.9 per
cent, the Patriotic Front 5 per cent, Ataka 4.3 per cent, the
Reformist Bloc 4 per cent,  and ABV 2.8 per cent.

Sixty-five per cent of the respondents said they would vote in
the local elections this October.

The average grade given to the Government of Prime Minister
Boyko Borissov increased from 3.32 in March to 3.42 (out of
6.00) in April-June. The attitude towards the Cabinet continues
to be strongly sceptical, Mediana said. Half of the voters are
rather disappointed in it, compared to 25 per cent who think the
 Government inspires trust.

According to 22 per cent of the respondents, the possible
reforms in the systems of justice, pensions, healthcare and
energy will lead to positive changes for the people. Nearly 60
per cent think that the reforms will be either to citizens'
detriment or will simply lead to no changes, the polling agency
noted.

Asked to choose between two statements about Bulgaria's foreign
policy, 34 per cent of respondents selected the statement that
the Government protects the national interests, and 66 per cent
the statement that the Cabinet serves foreign economic and
political interests.

The opinion poll's results do not confirm the expectations that
a possible referendum on election rules would increase voter
turnout significantly: 24 per cent of respondents have not heard
 about the idea for a referendum, and of the remaining
respondents 43 per cent understand what the referendum will be
about, 30 per cent understand to a certain extent, and 27 per
cent do not understand at all.
 
Asked whether they want a referendum to be held together with
the local elections, 41 per cent were in favour, 13 per cent
were against and 46 per cent expressed indifference. Forty-five
per cent said they would vote in a referendum, 33 per cent
expressed uncertainty and 22 per cent replied firmly that they
would not vote.

At present, nearly half of the voters are indifferent to a
referendum and, logically, the stated wish to vote in a
referendum is considerably lower than in the local elections,
Mediana commented. According to the sociologists, it is rather
the local elections that will increase the voter turnout for the
 referendum, and not the other way around.

The data show that 64 per cent are in favour of MPs' elections
in accordance with the majority rule, 4 per cent are against and
 the rest do not have an opinion on the matter.

Forty-five per cent are in favour of the introduction of
compulsory voting, 33 per cent are against and 22 per cent do
not have an opinion. Forty-three per cent are in favour of
distance voting on the Internet and 26 per cent are against.

If a referendum on election rules is held, the results will
probably be very contradictory, the polling agency forecast. The
 most probable results are: "yes" to the majoritarian election
of a part of the MPs, "no" to compulsory voting, and lack of a
categorical answer to electronic distance voting. The
referendum's topics at this point are outside of the attention
and interest of a large part of the voters and, thus, people are
 very far from the possibility to make an informed choice,
Mediana said.