site.btaMedia Review: December 5

CRISIS IN PARLIAMENT

The political crisis seems far from a resolution. On Thursday, MPs will resume the first session of the 51st National Assembly in their tenth attempt to elect a chair. On Wednesday there were four candidates: Atanas Atanasov of Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria, Petar Petrov of Vazrazhdane, Natalia Kiselova of BSP- United-Left and Silvi Kirilov of There Is Such a People.               

24 Chasa writes that Continue the Change co-leader Kiril Petkov has confirmed that there is a deal with the BSP for the election of Natalia Kiselova as speaker of parliament. The Socialists will announce on Thursday that they support a sanitary cordon around Delyan Peevski and the CC will vote for Kiselova in the ballot. They would also vote in favour of their current favourite Silvi Kirilov of There Is Such a People.

"The BSP are an acceptable partner if they sign the declaration," said Kiril Petkov on Bulgarian National Television. On Tursday is the 10th attempt to elect a chair of the National Assembly.

On Wednesday, sources from both parties confirmed for "24 Chasa” that the BSP and Continue the Change have reached an agreement, according to which the MPs from the party of Kiril Petkov and Assen Vassilev will support the nomination of Natalia Kiselova. The offer came from the BSP, and was presented by Borislav Gutsanov and Atanas Zafirov. They proposed to publicly announce that they are joining the demanded sanitary cordon against Delyan Peevski. This happened after the ninth failed attempt to elect chair of Parliament.

***

The head of the National Assembly should be elected by a simple majority after a ballot, where only one candidate can be voted for, said former Central Election Commission member Mihail Konstantinov on Nova TV of the impasse in the legislature. MPs should change the procedural rules and will immediately elect a chairman. Parties want to push until March because elections are hard to do in January, Konstantinov said of why no parliament speaker has been elected so far.

Journalist Veselin Stoynev said that the problem is that even before the election of the speaker of the parliament CC-DB have put a demand for a sanitary cordon around Delyan Peevski. He said that for people outside Sofia it is not possible that everything in the state is run by Peevski. 
Konstantinov said that the rights of MPs and entire groups cannot be limited as this is a gross violation of the constitution. He recalled that a decision by the Constitutional Court on whether the president's right to appoint a caretaker government will be restored is expected soon. He speculated that there could be behind the scenes talks if the list of possible prime ministers remains because most probably Rumen Radev would not elect Dimitar Glavchev for a third term as caretaker prime minister.

***

This composition of Parliament does not suit GERB and MRF-New Beginning. They cannot form a government either together or with their “crutches”, PR expert Vessislava Tancheva said in a Bulgarian National Radio interview.

This theatre is not an end in itself. It is quite obviously being played so that it can bring the next early parliamentary elections closer by postponing in time any legislation so that Borislav Sarafov will be elected as Prosecutor General in mid-January.

With Delyan Peevski, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms has added another 100, 000-150, 000-200, 000 votes. She also said that an attempt to split Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria may turn out successful.

INTERVIEW

24 Chasa interviews Kaloyan Pargov, head of the Strategic Institute for National Policies and Ideas and contender for the post of leader of the Bulgarian Socialist Party.

Asked how BSP's embrace with GERB will affect support for Natalia Kiselova for Parliament chair, Pargov says: “I do not believe that the sense of self-preservation of the current leadership (of BSP) has gone up like smoke through the chimney. I have not heard anyone talking about a coalition with GERB. There is a lot of speculation and rumours. But I will recall that in difficult situations BSP has participated in historic compromises. And with ideological opponents at that. Because in order for the National Assembly work, this compromise was made not by BSP, but by GERB, supporting Kiselova."

Pargov argues that the changes to the Constitution have led to current political chaos. The condition to limit President Radev's powers, is at the heart of the current parliamentary crisis. Pargov expresses hope that the Constitutional Court will find the strength to reverse the constitutional changes. It is obvious that the role of an Upper House of Parliament is currently played in part by the by the President with his veto and partly by the Constitutional Court if it is petitioned.

He puts forward the idea for more constitutional changes such as preserving the nature of the parliamentary republic and introducing an Upper House of Parliament not with more MPs, but at the expense of the current 240. In that way there will be control. Because now the president tries to control the legislature with his veto, which is then overridden by the majority. And the Constitutional Court, if it has grounds to intervene in a case. But there are a number of other laws, acts and decisions of parliament that are not sanctioned and controlled.

2025 DRAFT BUDGET

The Finance Ministry has set out five measures that will bring in additional revenues of BGN 12 billion in next year's budget. The bill will be submitted to parliament next week, Finance Minister Lyudmila Petkova said on Wednesday.

The government has identified a deficit of BGN 18 billion and the proposed measures are expected to bring in BGN 12 billion, so that the deficit will be within 3%, or BGN 6 billion, Petkova said. The measures for more revenues in the draft budget include a tax on excess profits of banks, a tax instead of concessions payments for subsurface resources, amnesty for unpaid taxes and for undeclared income, higher excise duties on cigarettes and alcohol and a return of the universal VAT rate of 20% with the exception of bread. Most money is expected from the tax amnesty - nearly BGN 5 billion. Increased excise duties are expected to bring in BGN 1 billion. Their increase means that alcohol and cigarettes will become more expensive next year. No increase in social security contributions will be proposed, because this measure was not backed in talks with employers and trade unions and parliamentary parties.

"The guiding principle for us is no increase in basic taxes and social security contributions, because they have a direct impact on inflation and economic development. That is why we propose measures that have the least negative effect." said the Finance Minister.

***

On bTV, economist Lyubomir Datsov said that already Bulgaria’s accession to the Eurozone may happen by chance and not through systemic effort. It is possible if European politicians turn a blind eye. To a greater extent, joining the eurozone is political process, but the refusal to make policy in Bulgaria raised the question of what it will do in the eurozone if it is unable to make use of its benefits. Datsov called the government’s proposal for a tax amnesty “a firework”.

Petar Ganev of the Institute said that from as set of measures that has been considered over the last few months, the government may have chosen the worst. The worst measure was to raise security contributions by 3% in order to raise salaries in the Interior Ministry. 

“I didn't hear from the Minister a single measure in relation to expenditures. No push for a revision  of salaries in the Ministries and Defence.” What is chosen are one-off measures - amnesties, taxing excessive-profits. We don't give amnesty to ordinary people who pay their taxes, but to those who have evaded them, he argued. “We are making a budget not for the normal people, but to give some the chance to launder their money, before the euro is introduced,” he said.

***

On Nova TV, Levon Hampartzoumian and Dobromir Ivanov rallied around the idea that it is wrong to plan a budget with a 3% deficit. The Finance Ministry is trying to satisfy calls for increased spending desires and at the same time meet the criteria for eurozone entry. Some of the most generous promises will simply not be fulfilled, said Hampartzoumian.

Hampartzoumian called the idea for a windfall tax “leftist and populist”. The tax amnesty will legalize grey incomes before joining the eurozone. “We know anyway that there is such money. It is a good measure if it is done every 15 years,” Hampartzoumian said.

***

Vassil Velev, Chairman of the Board of the Industrial Capital Association in Bulgaria, said on Bulgarian National Radio: “The bigger risk is to adopt a budget by a parliament that is preparing for the next elections, according to Vasil Velev. In his words, there is populism, bidding for people's love, attempts to buy votes wholesale. There is no political force that would defend principled positions and not go the way of populism, he noted.”     

"We are worried that expenditures have overtaken economic development. We are constantly patching the hole that is being created with some one-off measures that are running out. Once spending is increased, and absolutely inefficiently, it cannot be reduced, and it will be higher next year when there will be no such one-off measures to plug the hole. Then disaster is inevitable. We have expenditure increases in systems that are already overfunded," Velev explained.

He spoke ahead of a forum, organized by the Association on the relationship between education and the labour market. “The lack of educated and qualified workers entering the labour market, is among the top 3 problems outline by businesses in the last five plus years.” 

"Since 2018 there has been a 30% decrease in graduates from vocation schools without a parallel decrease in the numbers of those born 18 years ago. Secondary school leavers in general are down by 20% and primary school leavers are down by 15%." 

He said that data on the quality of education, as measured by PISA tests, is also worrying. Bulgaria shows two times more underperforming students than the OECD average and three times fewer overperforming students, said Velev, warning that these results are deteriorating over time. 

"Apart from the fact that a large number of children do not finish school, the structure of vocational education does not correspond to the needs of the labour market and its dynamics. There are more than necessary economic specialties, arts, tourism, services and less engineering, construction, transport, which is needed in the labor market". 

He said that all this applied to higher education, whose structure too did not meet the needs of the labour market.

"There are much more courses in economic, social, legal sciences and fewer in technical, natural and mathematical sciences." 

The Association is pushing for an increase in vocational courses.

"More than 40% of university graduates do not get jobs that require higher education at all. There is no selection with university admissions. For every high school graduate, there are two first year places in state-funded universities in addition to paid courses. The principle of money following the student results in irrational demand, low quality education and lack of competition.