site.btaMedia Review: June 11

Commentaries and opinions on Sunday's national and European elections abound in the news media after the constituency election commissions processed all of the tally sheets of the voting places. Seven parties crossed the 4% threshold in the snap parliamentary election: GERB-UDF won 24.7%, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) 17.07%, Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) 14.33%, Vazrazhdane 13.78%, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) 7.06%, There Is Such a People (TISP) 5.96% and Velichie (Grandeur) 4.65%.

In the European elections, GERB is in first place with 23.54%, followed by MRF 14.66%, CC-DB 14.44%, Vazrazhdane 13.98%, BSP 7.01% and TISP 6.04%. Velichie (4.07%) is below the 5.88% threshold.

Trud calls the estimated 33% voter turnout a "new anti-record," comparing it to 40.69% in the snap elections in 2023. A total of 1,880,322 people voted for the parties which entered Parliament. Out of 2.2 million voters on Sunday, 63,911 opted for "None of the Above". The turnout in the European election stood at 32.8%, the second lowest after 2019 when 32.64% cast their votes.

NEW CABINET: SCENARIOS

An article in Trud headlined "The Big Question: Cabinet or New Elections?" says analysts see the low voter turnout as a huge problem. The daily quotes analyst Hristo Panchugov as saying there are no impossible coalitions, but coalitions made up of unlikely partners are unstable. He stressed there is a huge risk that people's mistrust could skyrocket to levels that no democratic system can survive for a long time. If the main players talk with voters openly and honestly and have a credible plan for governance, small marginal players like Velichie stand no chance. On the contrary, a series of elections based on the current strategy give a great chance to increasingly exotic players to win political representation.

Another analyst, Tatyana Burudzhieva, sees a government of experts backed by BSP and TISP as an option. The question is if CC and DB are as united as they claim or if Democratic Bulgaria could join GERB.

Rumyana Kolarova opines that voters in Bulgaria proved to be smarter than those in Europe by choosing not to vote rather than backing radical right-wing parties. The low turnout, however, helped parties like Velichie win seats in Parliament.

While GERB is waiting for leader Boyko Borissov to say if he will head a cabinet, political analysts are unanimous that a government must be formed. According to Burudzhieva, GERB will sustain an electoral damage if a government is not formed. Stoycho Stoychev believes an expert should head the government.

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In a Trud interview, the young analyst Atanas Radev says the 7-8% drop in turnout from the previous elections will repeatedly raise the question of Parliament's legitimacy along the lines that MPs elected by 30% of voters represent the whole nation. The old mainstream parties failed to attract votes outside their core electorate, and given the low turnout, there is no way only two parties can run the country. The analyst suggests that the big parties should form a broad-based coalition around specific priorities and programmes, not an expert cabinet but a large coalition with specific tasks and political responsibilities.

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24 Chasa has an opinion piece by Tihomir Bezlov from the Center for the Study of Democracy, who offers four scenarios: a 40-45% chance of new elections and three options for a cabinet of experts. The most likely scenarios for an expert cabinet are: GERB-UDF, MRF and TISP (a 25-30% chance); GERB-UDF, MRF, BSP and TISP (15-20%); or the four last-mentioned and another party or part of it (5%). Given that there were three political players in the race for second place and the parliamentary groups are seven instead of six as in the previous parliament, at least three parliamentary forces are needed for a government. Even before the elections, analysts said the most realistic scenario would be a government formed by GERB, MRF and TISP. The problem is that no one knows if TISP will join such a coalition. The only certain thing is that TISP wants "an expert government". In this case, however, it is unknown how long TISP would back such a government. In the last three years, the party precipitated snap elections three times after it backed out of forming a government twice and toppled the Kiril Petkov cabinet in 2022. BSP leader Korneliya Ninova's statement that new elections must be avoided on the grounds of voter fatigue suggests that BSP could back an expert government. The difference between the first two scenarios is that a three-party coalition would conduct a more conservative fiscal policy and a pro-Western foreign policy, while BSP's participation could lead to all problems of a left-wing economic policy - large budget deficits caused by pay and pension rises and an increase in the external debt and inflation, as well as to a softer pro-Western policy.

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Interviewed by the Bulgarian National Radio (BNR) - Radio Sofia, analyst Slavi Vasilev said that the refusal of 70% of voters to go to the polls is a sign of an absolute refusal to accept the political status quo. It is clear that GERB's Boyko Borissov and Delyan Peevski [one of the two MRF leaders] will run the country. "Bulgaria lacks leaders. I have criticized Borissov but he has epitomized political leadership for years. (…) The only person who can upstage Borissov with a flourish is [President Rumen] Radev, but he still has duties, he is a man of duty. He really made a misstep when he named Kiril Petkov and Assen Vassilev [now Continue the Change co-leaders] as ministers of a caretaker cabinet in 2021," said the analyst.

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The media turn the spotlight on Velichie, viewed as a rival to Vazrazhdane, and the sparks flying between them. Mediapool.bg zeroes in on a briefing by Vazrazhdane leader Kostadin Kostadinov, who lashed out at Velichie: "This is an American project designed to stunt the growth of Vazrazhdane. Too bad for the people beguiled by it. We have had financial pyramids many times, but we will have a political pyramid for the first time." Kostadinov said now that Velichie is in the National Assembly, their masks will fall soon, by which he meant that they are in favour of NATO membership and that Bulgaria should support Ukraine, even if only with transport logistics and medical units. Vazrazhdane will continue fighting against Bulgaria's involvement in the Ukraine conflict. Given the state of parliamentary democracy, the party will have to resort to extraparliamentary means: "We will go out and lead the people. We will make a revolution," Kostadinov said. He ruled out joining thematic coalitions and outlined two scenarios: early elections in the autumn or an expert, programmatic government, which, however, "will be even more disgusting to the Bulgarians."

Kostadinov also said one of the biggest hoaxes of the election campaign was that a lieutenant colonel, Velichie leader Nikolay Markov, posed as a colonel. Interviewed on the Bulgarian National Television on Monday evening, Markov commented he was not bothered by anything coming from people with "a poor political culture, and indeed, poor general knowledge". He added that his last rank at the National Service for Protection was major general.

An article in Trud headlined "Lt. Col. Nikolay Markov: Enemies of Free Republic Will Address Us as 'Your Majesties'," (a pun on the party's name), outlines the party's short history. Registered on July 25, 2023, the YouTube party won 13 seats in Parliament, one of them on votes cast abroad. Analysts describe Velichie as the new GMO, whose success was overlooked by pollsters because its election campaign was conducted solely through internet platforms, the daily says. According to political experts, the party's profile is very similar to that of Vazrazhdane, but Velichie countered that "leaving the EU and NATO is not a priority for Bulgarians," which is the main difference with Kostadinov's party. Velichie has "From Ashes to the Sun" as its motto.

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On Nova TV, OFFNews editor Vladimir Yonchev said Hristo Ivanov's resignation as leader of Yes Bulgaria, part of Democratic Bulgaria, is a challenge to the party. Talking about GERB's and MRF's showing, he said they were the big winners - they were a covert coalition and now voters have given them a chance to become an overt coalition.

In contrast, analyst Vesselin Stoynev said on Nova TV that all players were losers compared to the snap elections in 2023: GERB lost 140,000 votes (21%) and CC-DB lost 50% of their supporters. Rumyana Kolarova argued that CC-DB showed a defeatist attitude mid-campaign by saying they would be in opposition, which meant they were in the race for the third place. The experts concurred that the most likely scenario is a minority government of GERB-UDF tacitly supported by MRF.

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24 Chasa says the parties' subsidies will decrease by BGN 3.9 million due to the low voter turnout (an estimate based on 97% of processed tally sheets). The government subsidy helps parties maintain their local chapters, organize political events and participate in elections. At present, the subsidy is BGN 8 per valid vote for parties which polled over 1% of the vote. The Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) party led by Radostin Vassilev polled 2.98% of the vote and will get a state subsidy. Blue Bulgaria (1.56%), Bulgarian Solidarity (1.47%) and Centre (1.19%) cleared the 1% threshold but will not get subsidies as they are coalitions, says Trud.

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Duma leads with the story that the Central Election Commission (CEC) will announce the elected MPs on Sunday. The daily quotes the CEC Spokesperson as saying that 148 voting machines, including 14 abroad, could not be used due to glitches.

EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

Trud carries an article from Politico, headlined "Who Won and Who Lost in the EU Election." Leading with "One thing is certain after Sunday's European Parliament election: Not everybody will be celebrating," the article goes on to look at the debacle of French President Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance party and at European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's showing, adding that "the possibility of defections means her victory [in the race for a second term] is not yet a done deal".

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Milen Keremedchiev, former deputy minister of foreign affairs and of economy, commented on BNR that the processes that surfaced at the European elections dated from a few years back but were arrogantly ignored by the powers that be in the EU institutions and by the Member States. The signals were very strong but Brussels shut its eyes to them. The security discourse includes anti-immigrant rhetoric - this will be one of the main topics for which support will be strongest. There may be calls for instituting a commissioner for defence and a single defence policy. Support for Ukraine is starting to erode, Keremedchiev said. As to the election of the new leadership of the European Commission, there will be a serious attack against Von der Leyen and tough negotiations. She has not cemented her position as under her leadership the EU has started to fall behind the other leading economies - the US and China. "Europe has a lot of catching up to do. Europe's policy has been to pay for its calm - to Turkey for border protection, to Egypt for migrant returns, to the US for defence, to Russia for energy. All this now needs to stop and Europe has to start defending itself, build a much more competitive economy and a much greater energy independence."

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Political analyst Slavi Vasilev told BNR - Radio Sofia the elections made it obvious that the Europeans refuse to accept the imposed liberal model which makes Europe open to immigrants and environmental concerns, while citizens are relegated to the background. That is why many people voted more conservatively, to defend Europe and its citizens' interest. Many people say that the national identity must not be lost in the community and want more sovereignty. "The Green Deal is viewed as economic suicide compared to the policies of great powers such as China and the United States," he said.