site.btaSlight Increase in Expected Voter Turnout in Bulgaria at Election Campaign's End - Survey

There is a slight increase in the expected voter turnout towards the end of the campaign for the June 9 early general elections and the regular European Parliament elections elections, shows a survey conducted by Alpha Research shows. A total of 42% of eligible voters, or about 2.7 million people, said they were ready to cast their ballot for the Bulgarian National Assembly. As at the beginning of the campaign, interest in the European Parliament elections remains lower, although mobilisation is growing, reaching 39.5% or approximately 2.4 million people, the poll also shows.

This survey was self-financed and carried out June 1-4, 2024 by Alpha Research. The study was conducted among 1,000 adult Bulgarians across the country. A stratified two-stage sample with a quota by the main socio-demographic characteristics was used. The information was collected through direct standardized tablet interview at the homes of the respondents.

The majority of those who determined to vote (72%), mostly loyal supporters of the parties represented in the 49th National Assembly, had already made their decision before the official start of the eection campaign. Another 16%, where supporters of new formations dominate, have made their choice in the last month.  

The pollsters point out that GERB-UDF retained their leading position with 25.1%, without any significant dynamics in the campaign and finished with a significant lead of about 10 percentage points over their direct opponents. Their role as the winner of the vote is beyond doubt, but their task of forming a majority around themselves remains difficult, Alpha Research added.

Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB), who were part of the government until recently, are suffering a serious erosion. They enter the final week of the campaign with 15.4%, but are losing two percentage points compared to a month earlier and are virtually even with Vazrazhdane and Movement for Rights and Freedoms, which are mobilising supporters.

According to the poll, Vazrazhdane, with 15.2% support, is among the few parties to show growth during the campaign. It managed to pull votes from a diverse range of opponents: Bulgarian Solidarity, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), There is Such a People (TISP), some of the smaller nationalist formations, but in turn was also "attacked" by newly emerging parties in this niche.

The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), which has 14.8% support, ends the campaign with a high degree of mobilisation, which in the event of a drop in voter turnout could give it more weight. So far, there is no evidence that the MRF has fulfilled its ambition of broadening its social base, and it remains concentrated in the groups of society that traditionally support it.

Alpha Research says that the BSP is among those who have suffered from the electoral dispersion in the Left. A week before the vote, 8.1% of those determined to vote stood behind the Socialists. The likelihood is high that it will once again be the only formation from this spectrum to enter Parliament.

TISP has been mobilising support throughout the campaign and can currently count on 6.2%. As usual, they are backed by anti-establishment voters willing to express a sort of a punitive vote.

A week before election day, one of the new entrants in the race, Blue Bulgaria, was closest to the 4% threshold for entering Parliament with 3.3%.

The coalition, an extension of the local Blue Sofia, is emerging as an alternative for disillusioned Right-wing voters. Former supporters of both GERB and CC-DB are turning to it, mostly from the capital.

Alpha Research says that the current survey confirms the trend observed at the beginning of the election campaign that the vote in the capital, where the erosion in support for the leading parties is most noticeable, could play a key role for the final results.

Another new and inspired by the local elections in Sofia coalition, Bulgarian Solidarity, also embarked on a significant bid in the current campaign. For the time being, however, it has not managed to overcome the competition of the many Left-wing formations  and ends the campaign with a similar result to its starting one - 2.4%.

After the wobbly electoral margins that were observed at the beginning of the campaign, the lack of a conformist vote, the one that follows the winners, is becoming increasingly clear. It is the first time in the three-year cycle of snap elections that there has been such a high proportion of support for the so-called "small parties". A week before the vote, 9.5% of those determined to go to the polls plan to cast their vote for roughly 20 other formations, some of which have the possibility of winning around 1 percent, pollsters add.

Voting attitudes for the European Parliament largely replicate those for the National Parliament. Alpha Research stresses that they have the same hierarchy and positions, as well as a similar level of party support.

The parties that will find a seat in the European Parliament  are GERB-UDF with 25%, CC-DB - 15.9%, Vazrazhdane - 15.7%, MRF - 14.1% and BSP with 7.9%. There is some ambiguity with TISP (5.9%), but it is likely that Slavi Trifonov's party will also pass the higher threshold of 5.88% of all votes for entering the European Parliament, according to the survey.

According to the pollsters, three main intrigues emerge: the arrangement between second and fourth place; the size of the punitive vote concentrated in the new small anti-establishment parties, which is a potential signal to the political elite; the emergence of a seventh party in parliament and its influence on a future governing configuration.

In the elections for the National Assembly in Bulgaria, 32 political formations will run for 240 seats, consisting of 20 parties, one independent candidate and 11 coalitions. In the European Parliament elections, the 17 seats will be contested by 31 political formations from Bulgaria, consisting of 20 parties, one independent candidate and 10 coalitions. The two-in-one vote will take place on 9 June.