site.btaExacta Survey: 78% of Bulgarians Approve of 2-in-1 Elections on June 9

The 2-in-1 formula of the June 9 national and European elections meets with approval from 78% of those interviewed in a survey by Exacta Research Group, whose findings were published on Monday.

The nationally representative survey was conducted between April 11 and 18 through face-to-face interviews among 1,020 Bulgarians aged 18 or over in 70 locations across the country. The survey was financed by Exacta as part of its research programme.

The Bulgarians' disappointment with the political events of the last few months determines the way they are viewing the current political situation. 91% of respondents said that most Bulgarians are "disgusted" by the recent political events.

Two in three respondents expect turnout to be lower than in the parliamentary elections in April 2023, when it was around 41%.

45% are convinced that GERB-UDF rather stands to gain from going to early parliamentary elections, while twice fewer do not share this view. 9% say Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) rather gains from going to early parliamentary elections, while 56% do not think so.

Within the CC-DB coalition, approval of DB increased while CC lost approval in almost the same proportion. Democratic Bulgaria expanded its influence among young voters and Sofia residents, Exacta noted.

As at April 18, 38% of Bulgarians believed that GERB-UDF and CC-DB would partner in some form after the June 9 elections, while 26% of respondents ruled out such a partnership and 37% said they did not know what to expect from the two coalitions.

Electoral attitudes ahead of the national parliamentary elections

Asked which political party/coalition they will vote for in the parliamentary elections, 25.9% of respondents who said they would vote opted for GERB-UDF, 16.4% said CC-DB, 14% Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), 13.8% Vazrazhdane, 9.6% Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), and 5.2% There Is Such a People (TISP), with 7.4% opting for "None of the Above".

Exacta said that the fight in the elections would be among the core electorates of the main parties. In this battle, GERB-UDF will enter with an indisputable lead that is difficult to overcome. The results of the parties in second to fourth place in the survey are not just close, but also fall within the statistical margin of error in such surveys, the analysts said. At least one new player stands a chance of crossing the 4% electoral threshold.

The respondents' answers point to a turnout in the 45% to 47% range, but given the low turnout of the last few years, forecasts had better be made at the very end of the campaign.

Bulgarians' attitudes on the eve of the European elections

30% of respondents said they voted regularly in European elections, 45% said sometimes and 25% said they had not voted in European elections so far. These findings are close to Central Election Commission data for the 2019 European elections when turnout was around 33%.

Educated, affluent young people and big city residents are more likely to say they vote regularly in European elections. The upcoming campaign may try to mobilize those who say they do not vote regularly, who are aged between 30 and 60 and are urban residents, Exacta said.

According to the survey, 67.5% of respondents support Bulgaria's EU membership, while one in three do not. Twenty years after Bulgaria's accession to NATO, 54% approve of its membership, while just over 40% disapprove of it.

Bulgaria's EU membership is supported by the majority of CC-DB, GERB-UDF and MRF supporters, as well as two in three of TISP supporters. Disapproval of the EU is higher among BSP and Vazrazhdane supporters.

As to NATO membership, it is mostly older and less educated people and residents of small settlements who express disapproval. A strong negative attitude towards NATO is registered among BSP and Vazrazhdane supporters. Among TISP supporters, disapproval of Bulgaria’s NATO membership slightly outweighs approval, Exacta Research Group said.