site.btaBudget Surplus Close to BGN 1 Bln Reported at End-February, BGN 400 Mln Surplus Forecast for Q1

The budget balance under the consolidated fiscal program (CFP) is expected to be a surplus of BGN 0.4 billion (0.2% of estimated GDP) at the end of March, the Ministry of Finance said.

The Finance Ministry also notes that at the end of March, the Electricity System Security Fund (ESSF) paid in full all obligations to electricity producers in fulfillment of the Energy Act.

Revenues, benefits and donations under the CFP as of March are expected to be in the amount of BGN 15.8 billion and increase by BGN 1.1 billion (7.5%) compared to those reported for the first quarter of 2023. Compared with the same period of the previous year, tax revenues increased in nominal terms by BGN 0.3 billion.

Income from social security contributions increased by about BGN 0.5 billion, revenues from direct taxes - by about BGN 0.2 billion, and indirect taxes were close to those reported for the first quarter of 2023. 

Receipts from aid and donations (mainly grants under EU programmes and funds) increased by around BGN 0.9 billion, while non-tax revenues were lower than reported for the same period of the previous year, due to a decrease in receipts from the sale of allowances for greenhouse gas emissions under the ESSF budget.

Expenditures under the CFP (including Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget) as of March amounted to BGN 15.4 billion, which is 18.9 of the annual estimates. In the individual cost indicators, there is an increase in social costs, as a result of the higher pensions paid, after the increase that came into force in July 2023, as well as in higher personnel costs, after the increase in the remuneration of the teaching staff and in some other administrations with the 2023 State Budget Act passed in mid-2023.

The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, paid as of March 31 from the central budget, amounted to BGN 0.3 billion, which is in compliance with the currently effective legislation in the field of the EU's own resources.

The Ministry of Finance also reported that the balance under the CFP on a cash basis at the end of February was positive in the amount of BGN 994.4 million (0.5%  of estimated GDP). Incomes, benefits and donations under the CFP as of February increased by 5.4% compared to the same period in 2023.

Revenues, benefits and donations under the CFP as of February were in the amount of BGN 9,963.3 million or 13.2%  of the annual estimates. Revenues increased by BGN 512.0 million (5.4% ) compared to those reported as of February 2023. This growth is mainly due to tax revenues, which increased nominally compared to the same period in 2023 by  BGN 462.0 million (6.1% ), while non-tax revenues grew by BGN 72.3 million (4.8% ). Receipts in aid and donations (mainly grants under EU programs and funds) were  lower by BGN 22.3 million, the Ministry of Finance reported.

Tax revenues (including revenues from social security contributions) amounted to BGN 8,011.6 million, which represents 13.8 % of those estimated for the year and form 80.4% of the total revenues under the CFP for the period. Non-tax revenues amounted to BGN 1,585.7 million, 15.5% of annual estimates. Incomes from aid and donations amounted to BGN 366.0 million.

Expenditures under the CFP (including Bulgaria's in the EU budget) as of February amounted to BGN 8,969.0 million, which is 11.0%  of the annual estimates. 
The size of the fiscal reserve as of February 29 wa BGN 12.9 billion, of which BGN 10.9 billion were deposits of the fiscal reserve in the BNB and banks and BGN 2.0 billion were receivables from the funds of the European Union for certified expenses , advances and others.