site.btaMedia Review: November 3

SUNDAY RUNOFFS

An analysis in Sega.bg argues that Sofia and Varna are the stake which will determine whether Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria or GERB will emerge as the winner in the local elections. 
Many processes in the country after the elections depend on this result. 

As a sum total by municipalities GERB have won the elections. According to data of political analyst Antoniy Todorov in the first round of voting GERB have 65 mayors, and CC-DB – 1 (Hitrino). There will be runoffs in 200 municipalities, but CC-DB have their candidates in few of them. However, if the coalition takes the capital Sofia and some of the other big cities, it will be good for their image and will mean that a considerable number of voters have backed it. 

The cities which will determine the match are Sofia, Plovdiv and Varna. The analysis mentions that the odds for the CC-DB to win Plovdiv are hypothetical given the lead of GERB’s candidate Kostadin Dimitrov over his opponent of CC-DB Ivailo Staribratov. What’s more, one of the contenders in the elections, Slavcho Atanassov, has backed Dimitrov.  In Varna GERB’s candidate Ivan Portnih has a mere 5% lead over Blagomir Kotsev of CC-DB. CC-DB don’t have any other opportunities for an image breakthrough. GERB have won Burgas and Stara Zagora, in Ruse GERB are competing against the Bulgarian Socialist Pary and in Pleven they don’t have a candidate in the runoffs. In Shumen and Dobrich their candidates were defeated already in the first round of voting, which was a failure overall for CC-DB. 

It is interesting that BSP also stand a chance in the majority of regional capitals compared with 2019. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms have won in 37 municipalities compared with 34 four years ago. For now, Vazrazhdane have only one mayor.

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Interviewed by Trud News election expert Mihail Konstantinov says that while World War Three is approaching the ruling coalition will remain intact. He argues that the political parties won’t give the governance to President Rumen Radev for three months. Konstantinov says that the ruling coalition exists due to external factors and they will keep it in place for as long as necessary. He cites as an example the situation in Turkiye which is on its way to leave NATO and attack Israel. While informal, Turkiye’s position is the opposite of that of NATO. 
 
Konstantinov says that after the first round of voting in the local elections there are no surprises. He is adamant that invalid ballots are not more than in 2015 and 2019 and they are mainly due to the voting preferences. 

Invalid ballots are many only in the elections for municipal councillors, at 15.5%, because people mark a preference on the ballot without marking a party. Invalid ballots for mayors are 8%. However, combined invalid ballots for the three kinds of mayors are 3.5%, as much as the International Electoral Standards (IDEA).  Of the eight types of elections in Bulgaria, only at one invalid ballots exceed the standard. Konstantinov says that everything else will be lies and functional incompetence. He urges for scrapping of the voting preferences, with which politicians speculate and which produce invalid ballots. 

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Speaking on the morning show of Nova TV, former president Rosen Plevneliev (2012-2017) said that if GERB topples the government, they will make a huge historical and strategic mistake, as they will make way for President Rumen Radev. Cooperation between GERB leader Boyko Borissov and Radev will be disastrous for Borissov.  
He stressed that the times are of strong geopolitical winds and a changing world order. 
 
According to him, 2026 is important because the battle for Bulgaria's future is to be fought, when the term of the current head of state ends. Plevneliev speculated that he will probably implement his own project with the ambition to become prime minister. 
  
"Everything at the moment leads in this direction. That is when his presidential term ends. Radev attacks every political party that could become strong so that he can keep the parties divided. So that in 2026, with his ambition, he can already be prime minister, plus mayor of Sofia, who comes from the Russophile circles in Bulgaria," Plevneliev said.
 
Of the Sunday runoffs in Sofia, Plevneliev said that on Sunday, the choice is between the Silicon Valley and the Maritsa Mines. 

CABINET RESHUFFLE

TrudNews writes that the ruling coalition will have to be shored up after the elections with a reshuffle of ministers in the rotating government in order to reduce the tensions between GERB-UDF and CC-DB, MPs from the ruling majority unofficially commented in response to GERB leader Boyko Borissov. Borissov said that after the vote he will gather the party to decide how and whether to continue in the coalition government. 

"It all depends on the results on Sunday, but the reshuffle of the government will have an impact on eliminating the antagonism accumulated from the election campaign," MPs from the CC-DB told Trud News. Political analysts argued that it is much more likely that after the runoffs the majority in parliament will undergo changes or at least be formalized with a coalition agreement.
 
"If we end up clashing head-on on our top priorities, we go to elections. It is in the interest of the country to have a regular government. Whether certain changes are necessary, including in the composition of the government, including in its actions in the future, we will discuss this after the elections in a calm environment," said Democratic Bulgaria co-leader Atanas Atanassov, implying that it is more likely that the CC-DB will accept proposals to replace some ministers. 
 
"Trud news" has learned that GERB insist on an urgent replacement of Agriculture Minister Kiril Vatev, Regional Development MInister Andrey Tsekov, Health Minister Hristo Hinkov, Economy Minister Bogdan Bogdanov, as well as E-government Minister Alexander Yolovski. More than a month ago, Borissov accused Sports Minister Dimitar Ilieva that no one knows him and nothing is done for sports.  
  
According to political scientist prof. Rumiana Kolarova, if CC-DB and GERB act rationally, there should not be any reformatting in the coalition after the local elections.
 

MORATORIUM ON NEW HOSPITALS

Capital writes about plans of the Health Ministry to impose a moratorium on new medical services, departments and hospitals until the healthcare map is updated. 
 
Вulgaria has 319 hospitals with a total of 52, 462 beds. In addition, it pays for hospital services to 376 health establishments. Since 2019, the government has authorized the opening of six new hospitals, аnd health ministers have approved new medical services in 130 existing hospitals including opening subsidiaries in new locations. During those four years there are hospitals which have closed and hospital admissions are well over 2.2 million. Half of the budget of the National Health Insurance Fund is spent on hospital services. This year’s budget is around BGN 3.5 billion. Meanwhile, compared with 2018 the population has decreased by more than 9%, or 600,000. 

The reason for the many hospitals is clear. Each year there are elections and mayoral candidates don’t want to pledge that they will close the local hospital because it provides poor services, doesn’t have enough medical staff, or the facilities are outdated. The Health Ministry manages 64 hospitals and not a single one is closed despite the poor financial results, the attitude towards patients or the quality of the services, because these hospitals are designated as strategic. 

The amendments to the Medical Establishments were published for public consultation last week. 

In addition to the moratorium, the Ministry offers solutions to other problems in the sector, which are polarizing. It proposes that the Minister can dismiss more easily state hospital managers, restructuring of the medical supervision and reinstatement of the accreditations for medical establishments which want to train medical students and residents. These are half measures which don’t solve the problem with the selection of hospitals according to clear criteria, neither the problem with the bad management of the state-run hospitals. 

The moratorium will be in place until May 2024, when the updated national health map should be approved by the government, with data about the necessary doctors, hospitals and hospital beds needed by regions. 
 
Petya Georgieva of the Institute for Market Economics says: "Even If no new hospitals are opened, the existing ones are too many, and a large part don’t offer quality services. We have too many medical establishments without any results for the health of the nation. The non-closure of hospitals is an old problem, because the politicians don’t want to enter into conflicts with the local communities." 
According to her, the bill should contain more drastic changes such as the consolidation of medical establishments. 
 
The author concludes that in the next months the health sector will discuss the bill which is the first more comprehensive one, tabled by the ministry and will try to sift through the attempts to centralize the administration of medical establishments and the benefits of more powers for the Health Minister. 
 
JUDICIARY

24 Chasa has interviewed Preslava Petkova, the new chair of the Chamber of Investigators. Of the proposed changes to the Constitution, Petkova says that in 1991 the Grand National Assembly voted to make investigators part of the judiciary. Petkova says that a conference on September 19 discussed the proposed changes to Constitution with representatives of the branch organizations of judges, prosecutors and investigators, the Bulgarian Institute for Legal Initiative, the Union of Bulgarian Jurists and of the academic community.

She said that both the academic community and jurists criticized sharply the proposed changes because of concerns that behind are political ambitions to separate the prosecution from the judiciary. 
 
Investigators are made part of the judiciary to ensure their independence. It will be a mistake for the Supreme Judicial Council to be split into two: for judges and magistrates. She says that a proposal for appointing six of the members of the future prosecutors’ council by the National Assembly has been criticized by the Venice Commission.