site.btaGallup International: Three Parties Sure to Win Seats in Next Parliament, Three Others Likely to Make it

ESD 18:21:30 22-09-2014
DD1821ES.106
106 POLITICS - ELECTIONS - VOTER ATTITUDES

Gallup International: Three Parties Sure to Win
Seats in Next Parliament, Three Others
Likely to Make it


Sofia, September 22 (BTA) - GERB, the Bulgarian Socialist Party
(BSP) and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) are certain
to enter the next Parliament, while Bulgaria without Censorship
(BwC), the Reformist Bloc (RB) and the Patriotic Front (PF) are
most likely to win seats, according to Gallup International.
ABV and the Ataka party stand a smaller chance of crossing the 4
per cent threshold for distribution of the 240 seats.

GERB would win 35.9 per cent of the vote, the BSP 18.3 per cent,
the MRF 14.2 per cent, BwC 5.8 per cent, the RB 5.6 per cent,
the PF 4.9 per cent, ABV 3.6 per cent, and Ataka 3.4 per cent.

This is the picture of voter attitudes according to the regular
Political and Economic Index of Gallup International, which
conducted door-to-door face-to-face interviews in 1,010
households between September 12 and 18. The survey is
independent of outside financing and is part of the agency's
programme of monthly surveys carried out for over two decades,
Gallup International said in its press release.

While GERB could rely on some marginal votes, this would be more
difficult for the BSP. The MRF can also expect a better showing
on Election Day due to the specifics of the vote for it abroad.
BwC and the RB are running neck and neck, the PF is gradually
gaining support, and Ataka and ABV are getting more or less the
same support.

The findings reflect voter attitudes as of mid-September among
people who can be expected to vote with a great deal of
certainty. This is not a forecast for the October 5
parliamentary election results and changes are possible by the
end of the campaign, the sociological agency said.

Pessimism for the direction of the country's development remains
high, though it has not peaked, at 70 per cent. Respondents are
predominantly pessimistic about the outcome of the elections:
54 per cent say they will not change anything, 26 per cent
expect things to get better, and 7 per cent expect things to get
worse.

For the first time since 1996-1997, most Bulgarians, 61 per
cent, share the view that the country is in a financial
catastrophe. This is the predominant view among BSP supporters
as well. This perception transcends the Corpbank case and is a
sign that mass attitudes will be quite volatile unless the bank
system is radically rehabilitated.

Understandably, the ministers of the caretaker cabinet are not
easily recognizable yet. The approval rating of Prime Minister
Georgi Bliznashki is 18 per cent. As a rule, disapproval
outweighs approval for the political figures, while public
figures which are not directly involved in the day-to-day
political process tend to have the highest approval ratings.

The caretaker cabinet's approval and disapproval ratings are
close to those of Plamen Oresharski's cabinet in its last month:
the satisfaction/dissatisfaction ratio is 15 per cent to 70 per
cent. Most respondents deem the Bliznashki cabinet dependent on
GERB. The same applies to President Rosen Plevneliev, with 54
per cent of respondents seeing a dependence in his actions. GERB
supporters hold the opposite view.

The majority of respondents share the view that the caretaker
cabinet should hold Oresharski's cabinet to account. Here the
BSP's supporters are an exception.

The mass expectations are that GERB will win the elections.
However, there has been a distinct sentiment (also noted in the
last few months) among 59 per cent of respondents that it would
not be good for Bulgaria to have Boyko Borissov as prime
minister. The opposite view is held by 24 per cent of
respondents. Unlike in 2009, GERB's leader is now known as
government leader and nearly 3.5 million voters do not view
favourably his performance in this capacity in 2009-2013.

Coalition government is favoured by 56 per cent of respondents,
while 12 per cent are in favour of a single-party government.
The preference for a coalition government is predominant among
GERB supporters as well.

As is usual in early autumn, society is showing scepticism about
politicians, as well as anxiety. There is an expectation for
agreement in the political elite and stability of the country.
LN/DD

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