site.bta GERB, BSP Score Almost Equal Voter Support - Centre for Analysis and Marketing

GERB, BSP Score Almost Equal Voter Support - Centre for Analysis and Marketing

Sofia, February 9 (BTA) - GERB and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) scored almost equal support in the declared voting attitudes ahead of the March 26 parliamentary elections, Yulii Pavlov, Director of the Centre for Analysis and Marketing, told a BTA-hosted news conference Thursday. The Centre conducted a nationally representative survey among 1,012 people on February 3-7.

The survey found GERB's support at 21.4 per cent of all voters and 29.2 per cent of the likely voters. Support for the BSP came from 19.6 per cent of all voters and 28.1 per cent of the likely voters.

The Movement for Rights and Freedoms won support from 6.5 per cent of all voters and 9.6 per cent of the likely voters, followed by the United Patriots with 5.9 per cent of all voters and 7.5 per cent of the likely voters; and Vesselin Mareshki's Volya party with support from 4.5 per cent of all voters and 5.2 per cent of the likely voters.

Below the 4 per cent barrier to Parliament, the Reformist Bloc would win 2.7 per cent of all votes and 3.7 per cent of the likely votes; a formation around the Democrats for Strong Bulgaria/New Republic would get 1.2 per cent of all votes and 1.6 per cent of the likely votes; the Bulgarian Democratic Centre would win 1.2 per cent of all votes and 1.5 per cent of the likely votes; Yes Bulgaria would get 1.1 per cent of all votes and 1.5 per cent of the likely votes; ABV 0.8 per cent of all votes and 0.9 per cent of the likely votes; DOST 0.7 per cent of all votes and 0.8 per cent of the likely votes; and Movement 21 around 0.6 per cent.

Yulii Pavlov commented that GERB and the BSP got statistically equal support. It is better voter mobilization that will propel the winner forward. The importance of who will finish first and who will be the runner-up is overrated, said Pavlov. What matters is who will find allies to form a government. He doubts that even a two-party government coalition will be feasible.

The Reformist Bloc, Radan Kanev's New Republic and Hristo Ivanov's Yes Bulgaria rely on the same voters. However, the Reformist Bloc is backed by the largest proportion of supporters of the old right wing, said Pavlov, adding that the Democrats for Strong Bulgaria and Yes Bulgaria stand a negligible chance of success each on their own. In contrast to the previous parliament, he does not expect eight parties and coalition to win seats now.

Asked about the kind of government they prefer, 23.5 per cent of respondents opted for GERB and other right-wing parties, 16.8 per cent for the BSP and other parties, 9.7 per cent for GERB and the United Patriots, and 9.1 per cent for the BSP and the United Patriots. No single configuration draws strong support, said Pavlov, predicting difficult negotiations, a government not liked by the majority of Bulgarians, and very probably a minority cabinet.

Pavlov also said that if elections were held now, between 3.7 million and 4 million Bulgarians would go to the polls.

President Rumen Radev tops the politicians' approval rating with 64.9 per cent, followed by Prime Minister Ognyan Gerdjikov with 49.5 per cent, Vice President Iliana Iotova with 40.7 per cent, Sofia Mayor Yordanka Fandakova with 39.8 per cent, and GERB leader and former prime minister Boyko Borissov with 35.4 per cent.

The caretaker cabinet scored an approval rating of 59 per cent as against 23 per cent disapproval, which is a very promising start.

The main problems identified in the survey are low incomes (66.3 per cent) and unemployment (44.4 per cent), followed by health care, high-level corruption and crime.