site.btaGradual Increase of Excise Duties on Tobacco Products to Bring Additional BGN 1.4 Bln in State Budget by 2027 - Economist

A gradual increase of excise duties on tobacco products in three equal steps, which means a 13 to 14% rise in the price of cigarettes per year, will lead to an additional BGN 1.4 billion in Bulgaria's state budget in the next three years, economist Dr Dimitar Sabev from the Economic Research Institute with the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS) said at a BTA-hosted news conference here Thursday. The news conference was held a week before No Smoking Day, November 21.

The easiest means to raise additional funds and fill at least part of the budget hole is to raise excise duties on tobacco products, Sabev argued. He noted that a high deficit is looming in next year's budget.

The economist presented the results of a study conducted in January-October 2024 by a research team under his supervision. The study was carried out in partnership with the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, on behalf of the Smoke-Free Coalition.

The findings of the study have been shared in recent days with representatives of all parliamentary groups, said Pavel Antonov of BlueLink - Civil Action Network and chairman of the Board of Directors of the Smoke-Free Bulgaria association. "We rely on their common sense. As far as we have seen, the caretaker Minister of Finance has included raising excise duties in the plan he proposed a week ago. This proposal deserves to be supported," Antonov said.

The percentage of smokers in Bulgaria is extremely high, noted Sabev. Bulgaria is the EU Member State with the highest number of smokers and ranks among the top ten countries in the world for that number. Only a few Pacific countries smoke more than Bulgarians. Bulgaria is also the country with the highest death rate caused by tobacco products. The World Health Organisation estimates that there are about 320 deaths per 100,000 people in Bulgaria, with 20,000 Bulgarians dying prematurely because of smoking (including passive smoking). Bulgaria is followed by Serbia with 300 people per 100,000 dying from smoking annually, Sabev specified.

Reducing smoking in Bulgaria would lead to 36,000 fewer deaths; about 150,000 people would quit if the price increased, Sabev added.

The price of cigarettes should also be taken into account, he went on to say, adding that Bulgaria has the lowest price in the EU. In his words, that price is so low that if someone buys the legally allowed four packs of cigarettes in Bulgaria and decides to sell them in France, he will earn EUR 295. Things are connected: low prices, high smoking rates, high mortality, he argued.

Excise duties on tobacco products in Bulgaria are low. Bulgaria has a so-called excise duty calendar in place and it is written down how excise duties will rise until 2026. "Our simulations have shown that smoking in Bulgaria as a percentage of the population will continue to increase if the current model of cigarette taxation is maintained. From the current 39.5%, it will reach 40.2% by the end of 2027," the expert noted.

Dr Gergana Geshanova of the Smoke-Free Coalition, Bulgaria is the leading country in terms of smoking among young people, particularly girls aged 15 to 16. Around every school there are young people who smoke, she noted. She shared stories of students who say they smoke with their teachers and have no problem buying cigarettes.

Every third Thursday in November is marked by the world community as No Smoking Day, Geshanova said. She urged people to go smoke-free for a day on November 21 and do something interesting and good with the money they save.