site.btaMedia Review: December 28

THE HOME SCENE

Political scientist Lyubomir Stefanov says in an interview for Telegraph that 2023 saw a number of positive developments: the overhaul of the Constitution, progress towards Schengen entry, preparation for joining the eurozone, getting inflation under control, returning the President to his decorative role, concentration of power in the National Assembly, and a normal government (even though backed by a not quite normal coalition). "President Radev has fused with his institution and assumes himself as a defender of the people," Stefanov comments. "Radev has undisguised political ambitions to be a factor of political life at an everyday level. As President, he is not able to do so and he seizes every opportunity to pose as a father of the nation, concerned about the interests of Bulgarians whom he until recently divided by word or deed," the interviewee argues. He does not expect the European elections to be held simultaneously with early parliamentary elections unless this is brought about by exceptional circumstances.

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Political scientist Georgi Kiryakov says in an interview for www.mediapool.bg that the existence of a regular cabinet is good, but its format is not good, based as it is on flimsy and shaking verbal, unofficial and unwritten arrangements. A 'gentleman's agreement' means nothing in politics, Kiryakov notes. According to the interviewee, Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) Floor Leader Delyan Peevski is part of governance and will continue to play exactly this role because GERB and Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) have let him to do so. "He was enabled to do it, and he is maximizing this possibility," the expert comments. "He has already got so deep into governance and in the distribution of power resources that his elimination from this configuration cannot be justified any longer," illogical as it is. Kiryakov attributes this behaviour of Peevski to "a purely ad hoc purpose of serving solely and exclusively the interests of the MRF and the clique within that party."

The worst loser from this situation is Bulgarian society because the powerholders subject it to an exceedingly weak or practically missing communication strategy. In the political scientist's opinion, a large part of the scandals both inside and out Parliament is due to the reluctance of  GERB and the MRF to vacate part of this turf [the distribution of substantial power and governance resources, including the regulators] so that it could be occupied by CC-DB. These scandals are not only between the political partners in the majority but also with the opposition, the interviewee says.

"If there is a substantial shift in voter dispositions indicating to GERB and the MRF a majority other than the present one, they will precipitate early elections," the expert warns.  

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS

Trud reports that opposition parties are contemplating to approach the Constitutional Court with separate petitions challenging the amendments to the Constitution adopted on December 20. Separate cases will thus be instituted, which can hardly be lumped together because they concern different provisions: the judiciary, the President, and Bulgarian citizenship. Experts recall that there is no limit to the number of petitions and no time limit for their submission. President Radev, too, is planning to attack the revisions. The daily quotes Assoc. Prof. Natalia Kiselova as saying that even though part of the amendments are debatable, they do not merit to be declared unconstitutional.

In a comment for Trud, veteran TV journalist Ivan Garelov argues that the amendments introduce "full parliamentary dictatorship, something like a Jacobin convention. It will probably rule by decree." The author notes that the judiciary, too, will be under Parliament's control. "Why didn't they simply provide in the Constitution that the President is elected by Parliament?" Garelov asks, speculating that the reason may be the lack of votes for a Grand National Assembly. "Thus, we are turning from a parliamentary republic into a dictatorship without parliament. It become superfluous, just as parties and elections. Because we will be governed by a single self-reproducing party."

CONSTITUTIONAL COURT

Trud writes that GERB-UDF Floor Leader Desislava Atanasova and CC-DB Co-floor Leader Atanas Atanasov are expected to be nominated for Constitutional Court judges to fill up the parliamentary quota. In early November 2024, President Rumen Radev will have to replace two of the four judges in his quota. Mariana Karagyozova and Filip Dimitrov, appointed by Radev's predecessor Rosen Plevneliev, will have to vacate office as their term expires.

SOCIAL POLICY

24 Chasa leads on an interview with Labour and Social Policy Minister Ivanka Shalapatova. In the item, which continues on two full inside page, the interviewee says that four specialized medical and social care homes for children are to be closed down by the end of 2024 and nearly 200 children will be placed, to the extent possible, in family care. The interviewee argues that family allowances for children should target beneficiaries' needs. "We aspire to improve the effectiveness, adequacy and appropriateness of financial support, but also to combine it with 'soft measures': individual assistance, which consists in social work rather than in money or supplies," the Minister points out, admitting that social work, in terms of counselling, therapy and advocacy, is at a very low level. "Our reform is to achieve holistic support: financial and material assistance, social services, soft measures, humane treatment, and gauging the effect of the investments in this effort and controlling the costs," she notes. "The only way to make a change benefiting people is to create a professional, motivated, well-paid but also highly productive professional community of social workers," Shalapatova told the daily, specifying that this will take at best between three and five years. She recalls that the 2024 budget provides for social workers' pay rise, and her Ministry will also invest substantially in their training. The interviewee aspires to devise an up-to-date comprehensive plan for humane deinstitutionalization of the residents of homes for adults with mental retardation and with mental disorders. She describes as "appalling" the existing "near-torture practices" in such institutions. The most important prerequisite to address the issue, however, is lacking: Bulgarian society does not accept people with mental problems but, worse yet, is afraid of them and wants to drive them away, the Minister says. Replying to a question, she explains that an integrated working group of her Ministry and the Health Ministry is updating the methodology for evaluation of working capacity and disability so as to shift the focus from a person's disability to their potential. The idea is to introduce, by the end of 2024, a comprehensive concept for a revision of the model and introduction of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF), with the relevant legislative amendments and professionalization of health and education system personnel. This will be followed immediately by an adaptation of all forms of support for disabled people's mobility and employment. Next year over 3,000 people will receive high-tech assistive devices. The Social Policy Ministry is working on an active living policy for seniors, promoting training and employment of retirees who are able and willing to work, which adds to their income, makes them feel useful, and mitigates the huge shortage of workforce.

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Trud reports that the retirement age and the length of contributory service are increasing from January 1, 2024. The payment for a shortfall in contributory service is rising, too. An increasing number of people opt for early retirement despite the lower pension that this entails. The minimum monthly pension will reach BGN 580.57 on July 1, 2024, up from BGN 523.04 now, but the maximum pension will remain unchanged at BGN 3,400. As from that date, the survivor benefit will rise, too, from 26.5% to 30% of the deceased spouse's pension. The daily notes that after the retirement age reaches 65 for both men (in 2029) and women (in 2037), further increases are supposed to be in line with the increase of the average life expectancy. According to official statistics, however, the average life expectancy has been declining to a level of 20 years ago. This means that the period during which a pension is received is shrinking. Still, economists comment that the retirement age may be upped again because of the large deficit of the public social insurance deficit. The story continues on two full inside pages.

SOVIET ARMY MONUMENT

Art and film critic and translator Zhanina Dragostinova said in a Bulgarian National Radio interview that the Soviet Army monuments in Vienna and Berlin are very different from the situation in Sofia. "Such comparisons are political speculation," she argues.

On the same show, lawyer Bilyana Kotsakova argued that the Sofia City Administrative Court adduced "completely untenable arguments" in its judgment ordering a halt to the dismantling of the Soviet Army Monument in Sofia. She noted that the Court ignored the fact that the bronze figures that were removed had not been maintained and checked for 70 years. The judgment is being appealed by the Sofia City Regional Administration. "We can't expect a restoration [of the Monument]. It must go the museum, where the history should be told against the background of the true facts," Kotsakova said.

BULGARIAN CHRISTMAS

Interviewed on Bulgarian National Radio Thursday morning, lawyer Maria Sharkova, who specializes in medical law, said that the Bulgarian Christmas fund-raising campaign has been providing vital rudimentary equipment and medicines and medical services that the State, in the person of the National Health Insurance Fund and the Health Ministry, have been consistently unable to provide. Sharkova described this as "an absurd construct" and an "impotence of institutions". "The presidential institution annually places parents in a humiliating situation to apply for funds," she comments. "At this stage, people who count on support from the Bulgarian Christmas have no alternative because other people in charge are not exercising their powers," Sharkova said, arguing that donations making up for long existing deficits in the health system is an "extremely sad" fact.

INTERNATIONAL SCENE

Former deputy foreign minister Lyubomir Kyuchukov says in a two-page interview for Trud that the outgoing year has proved right the thesis that the war between Russia and NATO in Ukraine cannot be won because it cannot be lost. Both belligerents have huge military and technological resources, including nuclear, whose use (or at least a threat to use) can always be resorted to in case of a risk of defeat. Both Russia and the US concur on an effort to prevent the war from escalating into a direct conflict between them and to avert the risk of a nuclear incident, the expert says. He expects a possible freeze of the conflict in 2024 - a development which seems acceptable to both Russia and the US. A further escalation, however, by no means should be ruled out. "Neither the military nor the political option guarantee Ukraine deoccupation of its territories, but the difference in the cost is enormous," Kyuchukov points out. Regarding the war between Israel and Hamas, the interviewee argues that, as the key player in the Middle East conflict, the US has so far achieved a sufficiently high level of addressing its two top priorities: ensuring political support for Israel and minimizing the risk of its own involvement in the conflict. In the person of Netanyahu the US has to deal with an uncooperative ally while incurring part of the criticism on account of the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and the large number of civilian casualties. The war in Ukraine has catalyzed processes and has made urgent the solution to long shelved issues in the EU. Under the circumstances, the EU simply cannot cope with Ukraine's accession. The EU must first reform itself in practically all spheres before enlarging, the diplomat argues. All these intricate questions raise a lot of concerns in European societies and intensify Euro-sceptic and populist moods. They will have a serious impact on the forthcoming European Parliament elections. "Bulgaria is practically absent from this debate. Regrettably, it is getting ever more unnoticeable on the international map," Kyuchukov argues. "We are present and support decisions in the EU and NATO but do not participate and argue for positions. The problem is not with Bulgarian diplomacy but with the lack of a foreign policy, because diplomacy is an instrument of policy."

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In a comment titled "The Battle for the Suez Canal", Petar Kichashki writes in Trud that if bottlenecks like the Suez Canal are taken out of transport management, this will impede trade to such an extent that it will inevitably affect both pricing and commodity stocks worldwide. A way out of the situation, as usually, lies in the hands of the free world, the author points out. "To boost this tendency, however, the US will need to stick to its hard line in the region, which will have to guarantee, yet again, the safety of all stakeholders. No one else can restrain Iran except a massive presence of American warships," Kichashki points out.

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On Thursday's morning show of the Bulgarian National Television, former deputy foreign minister Milen Keremedchiev said that in recent years regional conflicts have been abruptly escalating into global ones and have been engaging the major global players. He cited as a typical example the war in Ukraine and the conflict between Hamas and Israel. "Such flashpoints can very quickly escalate into a far larger-scale conflict in which the superpowers would match their clout," Keremedchiev said. He expects such hotspot conflicts to persist next year.

EU COHESION POLICY

24 Chasa carries a two-page interview with European Committee of the Regions President Vasco Alves Cordeiro, who discusses the Committee's role in promoting stronger ties among the regions in the EU. Bulgaria is entitled to receive EUR 11 billion under the EU Cohesion Policy for the 2021-2027 period. A key part of this is European Territorial Cooperation, the interviewee specifies. Replying to a question, Cordeiro says that the European project cannot survive without a stronger cohesion policy, but it is just as clear that the policy in its present form is at risk. His Committee has presented a clear proposal for the policy's renovation so as to make it stronger and better prepared to cope with the new challenges and growing disparities. Cordeiro argues that the Recovery and Resilience Facility "remains territorially blind". Local and regional authorities are interested in NextGeneration EU, but 70% of them have not been involved by the national governments in its preparation and implementation: 

In another interview in 24 Chasa, Bulgarian MEP Andrey Novakov explains the essence of cohesion, the link between infrastructure and regional policy, and the strengths and weaknesses of Cohesion Policy.

In the same daily, Galina Simeonova, Director General for Operational Programme Environment at the Ministry of Environment and Water, says in an interview that the Programme is focused on air and water quality, waste, biodiversity, and climate risk and climate change. On a budget of BGN 600 million, over 800,000 households in 21 municipalities countrywide will be supported to switch from solid-fuel heaters to more eco-friendly options so as to reduce dust pollution. In the first quarter of 2024, some 165 municipalities will be able to get BGN 330 million funding to set up and expand their systems for separate collection of biodegradable waste

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

Economy Minister Bogdan Bogdanov told Nova TV on Thursday morning that the foreign direct investment in Bulgaria for the January-October 2023 period approximated BGN 7 billion, which was over 50% more than a year earlier. He also noted an intention to invest BGN 600 million in manufacture of electric car parts, expected to be implemented in 2024. The Minister said that another six priority projects have been approved over the last month, including four in North Bulgaria (Pleven, Razgrad, Shumen and Targovishte). He commented that some 100,000 third country nationals can be employed in Bulgaria, but because of a loophole in legislation 40-50% start work here and then go to work in another EU Member State. 

HOME-PURCHASE LOANS

A page-long signed item in 24 Chasa analyzes the situation with home-purchase loans in Bulgaria in 2023, noting that a record BGN 690 million were borrowed from banks in November alone. A staggering BGN 2.851 billion in bank loans were spent on real estate during the year. The credit boom is due to the low lending rates: an average 8.59% fir consumer loans and 2.59% for mortgages. Banks keep loan-financing up to 85% of home purchase costs in large cities and up to 75-80% in the smaller settlements. Real estate prices in Bulgaria are cooling down, but the country nevertheless remains among the top five European markets with the highest price rises, trailing only Croatia, Lithuania and Iceland. The third quarter of 2023 also saw a decline in the number of home transactions: 8.7%, year on year, in all six large cities. The fall was steeper for newly built residential units than for existing ones. Brokers expect next year the price increases (between 2 and 6%) to be limited to high-quality properties. Most bankers and brokers expect a rise in mortgage rates next year but this is not certain.

TOURISM

Telegraph quotes Institute for Analysis and Assessment in Tourism Director Rumen Draganov as saying that some 160,000 Bulgarians have taken two days off on December 28 and 29, bridging the five-day Christmas holiday with the two-day New Year holiday. Most Bulgarians are skiing in Pamporovo, Bansko and Borovets. A total of 280,000 will travel around the New Year, up from 130,000 during the Christmas season. Some 6,000 are opting for exotic destinations.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

In an analysis in www.dnevnik.bg, Zornitsa Hristova notes that artificial intelligence is a tool, non-living matter. It merely enhances and completes what he has been told to do. Imperfect as it is, the automatic performance of various activities is often preferred by businesses because it is pay-free. Many professions will not disappear, but the role of humans (initially) will be increasingly turning into "machine supervisors". So far humans have been shifting order-taking activities to machines. Now, however, they are shifting control-related activities. AI is even talked to be used even for order-giving activities, such as corporate governance. What if this model spills over into the public sphere? Human may shift to AI itself the training of AI because this is more efficient. The result will be unpredictable, and AI will be controlling ever more spheres of our life. "I'd very much like to be wrong and AI be just an amusing toy with which you can have a chat," the author writes. "I am afraid, however, that this toy is ticking on and we can't switch it off."