site.btaMedia Review: November 1

WEIGHT IN VOTES FOR A PARLIAMENTARY SEAT

In an analysis, 24 Chasa quotes election expert Mihail Konstantinov as saying that the price for a seat in the 51st National Assembly is 9,332 votes, On October 27, 2,570,629 Bulgarians went to the polls and the turnout reached 38.94%, up from 34.41% on June 9, when 7,834 votes were enough to secure a seat.

By comparison, between 1990 and 1994, a parliamentary candidate needed between 22, 966 and 19, 507 votes to enter Parliament.

The Central Election Commission officially announced that Sunday's valid ballots totaled 2,436,456. Parties needed to collect 97,458.24 valid votes to cross the 4% threshold. There were 82,619 votes “none of the above” against over 62,000 in the previous election.

***

Speaking on the morning programme of bTV, former finance minister Simeon Djankov (2009-2013) said he expected a minority government of GERB, but after the US elections "Harris is an easier option for us, Europe is not so important to her, she does not focus on foreign policy", he said, adding: “Personally I expect President Donald Trump to win.”

Djankov commented on the political situation in the US before the presidential elections. He recalled that in the previous presidential elections, pollsters gave lower results for Trump, but he still won. A Trump victory would affect Europe in two ways, Djankov argued. First, countries would have to spend more money on weapons, and make larger contributions to NATO. Second, he has a vision for a peaceful world at peace, meaning an end to all wars. He even leaked a conversation with Israeli officials where he instructed them to stop the war with Palestine before he became president, otherwise he had a plan on how to do it. According to Djankov, Trump had a plan on how to stop the conflict in Ukraine as well - by stopping the billions of dollars in military aid.

DOUBTS OVER ELECTION FAIRNESSS, CALLS FOR ANNULMENT

Political tension in Bulgaria has escalated after President Rumen Radev made a statement on Thursday that the election results raise questions about the fairness of the vote and that he expects answers from the authorities. 

Media expert Georgi Lozanov and political analyst Kristian Shkvarek commented on the issue on the morning programme of Nova TV.

Shkvarek said: “It seems that the campaign is not over. Some parties cannot get out of the election campaign rhetoric. I don't see any difference with that time, two years ago, when There is Such a People Nation were on the cusp of entering parliament until the last minute, but their final vote was down to 3.86% - 0.13% short of the barrier. There wasn’t a controversy at the time, and I think there should have been, he said.

There will be no annulment of the elections. It is clear that the president is referring to Delyan Peevski. This is at the heart of the controversy. In a similar vein, the authorities and the Interior Ministry will not admit that the elections were not fair. If they admit that they were not fair, it will mean that they part of this. And if they did not participate, then they are not at fault. Therefore, the president's statement is more of a civil appeal, said media expert Georgi Lozanov.

***

Sega.bg carries an analysis by Diyan Bozhidarov who says that the bought vote has become a convenient alibi for the failure of Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB). CC-DB has been the subject of many analyses, its problems have been discussed, but the most important thing is missed – that it is a formation that has nearly lost its meaning. The "urban right", overlapping with the CC-DB, for 15 years has made sense of its existence in opposition to Boyko Borisov, for 10 years - to Peevski. For the people outside its hard core, the meaning was just that - of an alternative.

Bozhidarov argues: “These elections were not the most corrupt. We have seen far worse. The vote in the Roma ghettos, which is always an indicator, was not strong. There were polling stations with less than 10% turnout in Sofia’s Fakulteta and Plovdiv’s Stolipinovo. Moreover, although the overall turnout exceeded that in June turnout, 39% is not much. If the bought vote had been large, it would have had a higher weight and the MRF-New Beginnings would not have been a fourth force.

"Part of the result of GERB and most of that of MRF-New Beginning represents a bought and controlled vote", said former prime-minister Nikolay Denkov of CC-DB on Thursday, which makes sense, as until recently the formation claimed they were an alternative to GERB in Bulgaria, today there are no such claims. But there is also a double standard in this case. Are the many preferences in the Shumen region for CC-DB’ candidate Aylin Pehlivanova, daughter of the mayor of Hitrino, received in their entirety from Hitrino, not a controlled vote by the same measure? And does Denkov himself traditionally top the CC-DB list can in Shumen because of the love of the people of the region for him? Or does he also rely on the miraculous Hitrino? The answers are obvious.

***

TrudNews.bg quotes former constitutional judge Plamen Kirov: “The situation does not imply anything dramatic in terms of action, but the President has the opportunity to address other state bodies - in fact he appealed to the Council of Ministers to do something related to the detection of possible crimes and violations in the course of the electoral process, which could influence the final election result. Not every voting irregularity has potential to change the election results. Sometimes multiple factors, including legislative ones, can influence the democratic character of an election. It seems that a more sober assessment of problems related to the election process is needed, clear of political statements, in order to avoid a situation in which unknown PACE officials make recommendations for changes in the Bulgarian election system.”

The president can convene a Consultative Council for National Security where can get intelligence data and if there are serious violations that affect the overall electoral process, the results of the vote can be challenged before the Constitutional Court.

RISKS OF LACK OF REGULAR GOVERNMENT

Will politics eat the economy without a government and will risks to key sectors multiply, asks an analysis in Capital Weekly.

The tasks that need to be addressed have been the same for more than a decade and the cost of delaying them is getting higher for everyone. Apart from an increased presence of anti-democratic forces in parliament, frequent elections have become a convenient tool for postponement, but without accountability for caretaker cabinets. This political stagnation, however, carries increasing risks, including for the economy, which is still catching up.

GDP per capita in purchasing power standards is growing every year, reaching 64% of the EU average in 2023, but is still the lowest in the bloc. This means the country needs a stable environment for doing business, with incentives to attract more investments.

The forecasts of the institutions that monitor Bulgaria are for a slightly higher economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024. But all this could change very quickly. And for the worse.

The first risk is related to public finances. In the last three years, there have been six caretaker governments and two short-lived regular cabinets. The consequences of all this have been populist increases in public expenditures and abandonment of any reforms to public systems.

So far, inflation has helped revenues to grow, but as it subsides, it will become increasingly difficult to find the money to finance the expectations of permanent increases to pensions, wages and all sorts of state giveaways to specific groups or sectors of the economy, and the debate on tax and/or social security increases will soon be on the table again.

And this is the second risk – for Bulgaria to lose the advantage of its relatively simplified and competitive tax and insurance system. "In addition, the official rates have to be seen in combination with the "hidden" tax of corruption. With frequently changing caretaker governments, it is obvious that even if there is a will for measures against corruption, they are less effective. And separately, and when there are temporary appointees in key positions, the temptation to capitalize on power increases.

Probably Brussels will not say it officially, but it will hardly open the door to the eurozone to a country that is in a political crisis and has no normal government to talk to. However, a new indefinite postponement of the country's membership in the monetary union could also cost it its credit rating. In their reports on Bulgaria, international agencies regularly note this scenario as one of the factors that could lead to a downgrade of their ratings for the country. And this, other things being equal, means a higher cost of financing for business and the state.

Without a growing economy, with unreformed and underfunded public systems and without a perspective on where Bulgaria is heading - to Europe or Eurasia, the country will start losing its workforce. Recently, the Council for Economic Analysis with the government estimated in a report that the negative effect of demography on GDP growth after 2009 is about 0.9 percentage points and with worsening trends it may increase.

The whole system of planning big infrastructure projects is blocked - because of the huge corruption and lack of capacity. But the situation around has changed dramatically: NATO wants south-north connectivity, Romania is building at a huge pace, Serbia too, trains have become a serious priority. Bulgaria is unable to complete a single corridor from Greece to Romania, unable to hold big procurement tenders, and what’s more - to supervise and complete them efficiently. This can only continue for a while by inertia.

At best, the result will be a terrible delay in every respect in connectivity and capacity drain. Bulgarian companies are already relocating to Romania. At worst, Bulgaria is threatened with long-term isolation in the new transport corridors and links.

Also, Bulgaria may lose its competitive advantage in the energy sector and thousands of workers in coal regions will be left without an alternative while new investors bypass the country.

This would be an extraordinary setback for the country's development, as energy has been one of the most forward industries in recent years, attracting billions of dollars of investment. Coupled withs the billions from the national recovery plan and EU programmes, the lost benefits become really tangible.

ECONOMY

A check by TrudNews.bg shows that the minimum wage in Bulgaria will catch up with the lowest wage in Germany by EUR 6.6 from January 1, 2025.

In Bulgaria, the minimum wage is set to rise by BGN 144, to BGN 1,077, at the beginning of next year. This represents an increase of 73.6 euros. At the same time to EUR 12.82. This represents an increase of just 3.3%. However, the minimum gross wage in Germany is currently at EUR 2,054. With an increase of 3.3%, from the beginning of next year the lowest monthly wage in Germany will become EUR 2,121, or up by EUR 67.

Meanwhile, the prices of many staple foods in Bulgaria have caught up with and even surpassed prices in Germany. According to data of the Confederation for Independent Trade Unions in Bulgaria, released recently, cooking oil in Bulgaria costs on average EUR 2.08 per litre, while in Germany it is cheaper – EUR 1.59.

Cucumbers in Bulgaria are significantly more expensive than in Germany. Their average price in Bulgaria is EUR 2.52, compared with EUR 1.99 in Germany. Fresh milk, yoghurt and eggs in Bulgaria also cost more than in Germany.

A basket of 20 staple goods, which includes 19 foods and petrol, costs EUR 57.32 in Bulgaria and EUR 66.40 in Germany. It turns out that food prices in Germany are 15.8% higher than in Bulgaria. But the minimum wage in Germany is over 4 times higher than in Bulgaria.

FLOODS IN SPAIN

At least 158 people have died after the storms and floods in Spain, writes TrudNews.bg, quoting AFP.

Rescue services in the region of Valencia said 155 bodies had been recovered there by Thursday afternoon. Officials in Castilla-La Mancha and Andalusia announced a combined three deaths in their regions on Wednesday.

Dozens remain missing two days after the disaster, Territorial Policy Minister Angel Victor Torres told reporters, raising fears that the death toll could rise further.
Spanish authorities issued a new storm warning on Thursday for part of the Valencia region hit by severe flooding.

Rescuers continue to search for the missing amid flooded fields and abandoned cars.

Because of the huge death toll, flags were lowered at half-mast at government buildings and a minute of silence was observed across the country at the start of three days of national mourning after Spain's deadliest floods in decades.

"I express my condolences for the victims of the Storm Dana and the solidarity of the European Union with the population affected by this tragedy. Europe can help through the Civil Protection Mechanism and the European Solidarity Fund in view of the enormous material damages," Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said in Spanish on the X social network.

So far, there have been no reports of dead or distressed. The Bulgarian Consular Service is in constant contact with the Spanish authorities and the Civil Protection service. It has helped civil servants seconded for the elections on October 27 to return to Bulgaria.

Two Bulgarians are missing after the floods in Valencia, Dr Firas Alcharani said in an interview on Nova TV. Alcharani graduated in medicine in Bulgaria. He said that a Bulgarian truck driver and a woman named Elena Georgieva are missing after the disaster, but he did not give further details.

"I was on duty at the hospital that day. Alarms started going off, we got calls from the town hall and I was running one of the reception areas for the victims. It was a terrible thing, the authorities here were unprepared at all, despite information and warnings about what was expected as weather conditions. I even spoke to the mayor of Valencia. There was nothing - no dry clothes, no mattresses, blankets or hot food. In the end, the worst thing was that the electricity was cut off," Alcharani said.

A large number of the victims were from the Paiporta area. "The very structure of the bridges there was not very good. A lot of people were swept away in the vehicles because they were not warned and died in their cars," he said.

He said the horror that began on October 29 would continue for at least several weeks, even months. "There are many villages that currently have no electricity, water or internet. They can't clear the streets of cars yet," Alcharani said.

According to him, Spain did not take any measures. "Since October 23, the national weather service had warned of the storm, which is equivalent to a typhoon or hurricane," the doctor said.
So far the Bulgarian Foreign Ministry hasn’t reported that any Bulgarians are missing.