site.btaParallel Count after Bulgaria's Early Elections: Parliament Fragmented into Eight Parties, GERB Leads

Parallel Count after Bulgaria's Early Elections:
Parliament Fragmented into Eight Parties,
GERB Leads


Sofia, October 5 (BTA) - Full parallel counts of the ballots
cast at the October 5 early parliamentary elections in Bulgaria
send as many as eight parties and coalitions to the next
Parliament. GERB won the most votes, some 33 per cent, but still
far short of the 50 per cent plus 1 it needs to form a
government of its own. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) Left
Bulgaria coalition ranked a distant second, on some 15 per cent,
slumping to a historic low. Its votes are just 1 per cent ahead
of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), but the order
may be reversed after the ballots cast abroad are counted and
added to the total. The Reformist Bloc coalition came in fourth,
on 8-9 per cent, followed by the Patriotic Front coalition with
over 7 per cent and the Bulgaria without Censorship (BwC)
coalition on 6 per cent-plus. Most probably, the ABV coalition
and the Ataka Party will also clear the 4 per cent electoral
threshold.

With this correlation of forces, forming the country's next
government will prove extremely difficult, analysts and
politicians agree.

Following is the distribution of seats according to the parallel
count of the ballots:

Alpha Research (100 per cent of ballots counted):
GERB: 32.9 per cent, 85 seats;
BSP: 15.4 per cent, 40 seats;
MRF: 13.5 per cent, 35 seats;
Reformist Bloc: 9.0 per cent, 23 seats;
Patriotic Front: 7.5 per cent, 19 seats;
BwC: 6.1 per cent, 16 seats;
ABV: 4.4 per cent, 11 seats;
Ataka: 4.3 per cent, 11 seats.

Gallup International (100 per cent of ballots counted):
GERB: 33.5 per cent, 82-90 seats;
BSP: 15.1 per cent, 36-42 seats;
MRF: 14.5 per cent, 35-39 seats;
Reformist Bloc: 8.4 per cent, 20-24 seats;
Patriotic Front: 7.2 per cent, 17-21 seats;
BwC: 5.6 per cent, 12-16 seats;
Ataka: 4.7 per cent, 10-14 seats;
ABV: 4.2 per cent, 10-12 seats.

Institute for Social Studies and Marketing (100 per cent of
ballots counted):
GERB: 33 per cent;
BSP: 16.5 per cent;
MRF: 15.0 per cent;
Reformist Bloc: 9.2 per cent;
Patriotic Front: 7.6 per cent;
BwC: 5.6 per cent;
Ataka: 4.8 per cent;
ABV: 4.1 per cent.

Analysts comment that these elections stand out for the low
turnout: just over 41 per cent, according to unofficial figures,
and the strongly fragmented Parliament they will produce. This
will also be the first National Assembly with two nationalist
entities: the Patriotic Front and Ataka.

On Bulgarian National Television, bTV and Nova TV, sociologists
commented the exit polls:

Andrei Raichev (Gallup International): "GERB has three options
for a minority government: first, it can coalesce with the MRF;
second, it can coalesce with the Reformist Bloc and the
Patriotic Front; and third, it can set up a grand coalition with
BSP. We cannot afford to conduct yet another elections, the
moods of the people tell us so."

Zhivko Georgiev (Gallup International): "It is highly likely
that seven or eight parties and coalitions will enter
Parliament. If the eight entities leading in Gallup's exit polls
make it to the legislature, it will perhaps the most
representative parliament of the last decade, with 95 per cent
of Bulgarians being represented in it."

Mira Radeva (Institute for Social Studies and Marketing): "The
large mainstream parties, including GERB, have lost much
electoral support compared with early forecasts. We expected
that they would win 94 seats at the very least, but no one
imagined that their result would be poorer than 90 seats. The
margin between the BSP and the MRF is extremely narrow. A
dramatic change has occurred in Bulgarian politics: three of the
so-called patriotic forces together can get more parliamentary
seats than the BSP. This is the failure of the Left."

Kuncho Stoychev (Gallup International): "The MRF is very much
likely to emerge second after the ballots from the overseas
polling places are counted. Two coalitions are feasible: GERB
and the MRF or GERB and the BSP, but the latter is hardly
likely." PK/LN, LG