site.btaBulgarian Academy of Sciences' Emil Gachev: Increasing Flood Risks Amid Climate Change

The risk of extreme rainfall and flooding will continue in the future, said here Tuesday Professor Emil Gachev from the Institute for Climate, Atmosphere, and Water Research at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. He was speaking during an online event titled "The Storms of Tomorrow: What is the Connection Between Floods and Climate Change?". Gachev is a member of the team behind the Climateka platform, which organized the event.

Gachev noted that the pattern of increasingly intense rainfall, which can cause flooding, usually begins in late August or early September and continues until November. "Flooding happens when water levels rise significantly above normal, submerging areas that are typically dry," he explained.

The Southern Black Sea region is highly susceptible to flooding due to intense rainfall, as highlighted by the recent Tsarevo disaster, where rainfall reached 250-300 litres per square meter over 10 hours. This intense rainfall is influenced by abnormally warm Mediterranean Sea waters, cooling land temperatures, poor riverbed maintenance, and deforestation in upper catchment areas. These conditions contribute to material damage, infrastructure destruction, and human casualties.

Floods, while somewhat predictable in terms of location probability, remain unpredictable in the long term, unlike other natural disasters like earthquakes. They account for over 90% of natural disasters globally in some years, causing significant damage and loss of life. To mitigate their impact, Gachev recommends enhanced early warning systems, regular emergency drills, and improved public awareness.

Bulgaria, located in a region experiencing rising temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events, is witnessing an increase in flood severity. Between 2010 and 2020, 3,533 floods were recorded, making them the second most common natural disaster after fires. Floods are complex phenomena influenced by multiple factors, underscoring the need for comprehensive preventive measures.

Valentin Simeonov from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, and a contributor to Climateka, discussed the widespread occurrence of floods worldwide this year, citing the recent flood in Dubai as evidence that no region is immune. He also addressed the ongoing rise in global temperatures, particularly the unusual warmth of the eastern Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. This increased warmth causes extreme evaporation, which significantly disrupts the Earth's water and atmospheric cycles, leading to more frequent and severe weather events.

During the event, specialists also addressed the critical function of forests in water retention, which plays a key role in flood prevention.