site.bta No Risk of Electricity Shortage but Price Is Another Matter – Energy Minister

To date, there is no danger of electricity shortage, but what the price of electricity will be is a separate issue, caretaker Energy Minister Vladimir Malinov said on Thursday during a hearing in the National Assembly on the expected increase in the price of electricity on the regulated market. In his words, the state energy sector is currently operating at full capacity.

Malinov added that on November 28, he received a letter from the National Electricity Company (NEK) in its capacity as a public supplier, informing him of the expected drastic overrun in the quantities of electricity requested by end suppliers for the regulated market by the end of the price period ending July 1, 2025.

"This represents a significant increase compared to the forecasts and the price decision of the Energy and Water Regulatory Commission," Malinov said. He added that the letter states that from July 1, 2024, the required quantities of electricity for end suppliers significantly exceed those set in the price decision of the Energy and Water Regulatory Commission.

For the period from July to November alone, the quantities of electricity requested by end suppliers exceeded by more than 500,000 MWh the quantities set in the regulator's decision, the Energy Minister said.

Given the increased consumption of electricity by household consumers in the winter months, the expectations of both the NEK and the Ministry of Energy are that the consumption will be significantly higher than the price decision. Forecasts indicate that these quantities could reach up to 1 million MWh. However, the Minister assured that household electricity needs will be covered.

In order to provide these larger quantities, NEK is purchasing more electricity from the Maritsa East 2 thermal power plant (TPP) compared to the amount set by the EWRC. This is done in order to compensate for the requests made by end suppliers and to ensure the security of the electricity transmission system. NEK points out that this may lead to an earlier depletion of the TPP's quota for the regulated market.

On December 9, the Ministry of Energy received a report from Maritsa East 2 noting the significantly higher amount of electricity purchased by NEK compared to the one estimated in the price decision of the EWRC. However, the TPP can provide an additional 800,000 MWh of electricity for the winter period.

The risk of an electricity price increase for household consumers stems from the difference between the estimated price for the regulatory period that started on July 1, 2024, and the current price on the energy exchange. The estimated price set by the EWRC is BGN 173,09 per MWh, while as of December 11, the average price for the period was BGN 249,18 per MWh, Malinov specified. He recalled that the price for purchase of electricity produced by Maritsa East 2 is BGN 270 per MWh, while the price for the regulated market is BGN 127 per MWh.

Only the EWRC can determine the size of the possible increase in the price of electricity, but Minister Malinov believes that appropriate mechanisms will be found to limit the increase to minimum values.