site.btaAlpha Research Poll: About 30% of Bulgarians Ready to Vote in October 27 Snap General Elections

Some 30-31% of Bulgarians eligible to vote have declared readiness to vote in the snap parliamentary elections on October 27, seven parties and coalitions have the potential to be part of the next Parliament, according to Alpha Research poll data released on Thursday. The poll found that 53.8% of Bulgarians do not expect the formation of a regular government after the coming October 27 elections.

Alpha Research conducted the poll with its own funds between September 18 and 24 among 1,000 adult Bulgarians countrywide, using two-stage stratified random sampling with a quota on the main socio-demographic characteristics. Data was collected through direct standardized tablet interview at the homes of the respondents.

Bulgarian voters enter the election campaign one-month period tired and demotivated by the futility of the June elections and the growing incapacity of party leaders to take responsibility and manage complex political situations, the agency said.

At the start of the election campaign data show GERB-UDF to receive the most support of 23.9%, followed by Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) with 14.4%, Vazrazhdane with 14.2%, the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms Coalition with 7.9%, the BSP - United Left Coalition with 6.3%, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms - New Beginning Coalition with 6.1% and the There Is Such a People (TISP) party with 5.4%. 

About 30-31% of Bulgarians eligible to vote declared readiness to vote in the snap elections in October, which is a drop of about 3% compared to the June elections - a logical trend given people's growing disillusionment with the parties and growing doubts that a government will be formed.

Right before the start of the election campaign, seven parties and coalitions appear to have the potential to enter Bulgaria's 51st National Assembly. One or two more political forces could accumulate a significant share of the vote, which will mainly be generated not by attracting new voters but from the fringes of the current "big" political forces, the agency said.

Just over 61% of respondents described the current situation as "extremely worrying, with destabilization and dysfunctional institutions." The opinion was dominant across all social and electoral groups, with only some residents of big cities and GERB supporters being slightly less critical.

Against this background, 53.8% of Bulgarians no longer expect a government to be formed after the October 27 elections. Alpha Research registered a sharp reversal in attitudes compared to the previous two elections, when the majority of people still expected the formation of a regular cabinet. Only the most ardent party supporters, who are also the most motivated to vote, believe that a government will be in place this time. The majority are of the opinion that no cabinet will be formed, and this attitude appears to be stronger as motivation to vote grows weaker. 

The campaign is at its very beginning, but given the persistence of such attitudes, there is very little likelihood that parties will attract votes from outside their hard cores and thereby boost turnout significantly, the agency noted.