site.btaUPDATED Alpha Research: 60% of Bulgarians See No Alternative to Bulgaria's EU Membership

According to data from a nationally representative survey by Alpha Research polling agency, some 60% of Bulgarians state strong support for Bulgaria's EU membership. 

The poll, conducted among 1,000 adult Bulgarians between March 1 and 7, when the future of the government was still unclear, investigated public attitudes towards major policies of the European Union, voting intentions for the European Parliament and potential electoral attitudes.

Alpha Research says that due to Bulgaria's failure to come closer in terms of living standards and equality before the law to the core EU countries, as well as due to the series of crises in Europe in the last decade, scepticism towards the way the Union is governed and its specific policies is growing at an accelerated pace.  12% of adult Bulgarians say they fully approve of the way the EU is run today, 42% only somewhat approve, and 39% are definitely dissatisfied.

The following trend is said to stand out as a common denominator: Bulgarians most strongly approve of those EU policies that give them a chance to benefit from the achievements and guarantees of the more developed European countries, while they express the most criticism towards those that are being implemented or are about to be implemented by Brussels at national level, Alpha Research points out.

Bulgarians were most positive about the possibility to turn to the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg in case of violation of their rights (84%). Following is satisfaction with the opportunities for labour migration, i.e. to work in EU member states (81%) and the envisaged establishment of a common European security system (68%).

The enlargement of the euro area and the Schengen area (53%) and the impact of the EU funds on Bulgaria's development (51%) are also assessed mostly positively, but they also have a higher share of negative opinions - around 30% each.

Contrasting are attitudes towards the effect of EU policies in three areas: the green transition - 34% positive vs. 42% negative, and for every one in four Bulgarians this pact remains completely incomprehensible; European aid to Ukraine (38% in favour vs. 45% not in favour); the policy on labour migration from non-EU countries to Bulgaria (34% in favour vs. 49% not in favour).

Bulgarians are the most negatively disposed to those proposals and policies that have found the strongest negative response in Europe: migration policy and in particular the policy for solidarity distribution of migrants is approved by only 19% with over three times more negative opinions; agricultural policy (also related to the uncertainties around the so-called green transition) - 26% approval with twice as much disapproval; increasing the powers of the European Commission at the expense of national governments - 77% disapproval.

Although Bulgarians personally see benefits for themselves and the country from European membership, for 17 years they have failed to convince themselves that their vote determines how the European Union will function and what kind of Europe we will live in. It is therefore not surprising that the voter turnout in European elections in Bulgaria is the lowest possible of any other election. The forthcoming vote is no exception, with no more than a third stating a firm willingness to go to the polls in June. If this trend continues, the number of voters could fall below 2 million, as it was only in the 2007 by-elections for MEPs, Alpha Research said.

Electoral attitudes among those who have firmly decided to vote in the European elections, according to the survey, are supporters of: GERB-UDF - 22.6%, Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) - 19.9%, Vazrazhdane - 13.2%, Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) - 8.9%, Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) - 8.4%, There Is Such a People (TISP) - 4.9%, and of the "undecided" - 16.3%. In a parliamentary election, the results would be 23.7% for GERB-UDF, 19.2% for CC-DB, 12.8% for Vazrazhdane, 9.6% for BSP, 9.7% for MRF, 5.1% for TISP, and the undecided would be 12.2%.

According to the agency, the most interesting is the answer to the question how contradictory attitudes towards EU policies and weak motivation to participate in the elections affect electoral preferences. The highest mobilisation is shown by the two extreme groups - the biggest euro-enthusiasts and the biggest eurosceptics.  As a result, the CC-DB increase their result from hypothetical national elections (to 19.9%) and shorten the distance with GERB to 2.7 points, which would get 22.6% of the vote. Vazrazhdane, like other European countries where Eurosceptic and anti-establishment parties perform slightly above their national potential, reaches 13.2%. Weaker motivation, distance and focus on local issues put GERB, BSP (8.9%) and MRF (8.4% - whose voters in Turkiye are not eligible to vote in the European elections) in slight decline.