site.btaWhat Follows from Ocalan's Call on PKK to Disarm and Disband

The call by the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, for the group - which is designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the EU, and the US - to disband and reconcile with the Turkish state has captivated the attention in Turkiye and beyond.

Tens of thousands have died in the armed struggle against the Turkish state that the PKK has been waging since 1984.

Ocalan's Thursday call on PKK came was his first appearance before the Turkish public since 1999, when he was sentenced to life imprisonment on the island of İmralı in the Sea of Marmara.

The question now is what comes next. Will the PKK heed Ocalan’s call to disarm, and how will the process unfold?

According to journalist Ahmet Ozcan of the Turkish TV channel TGRT, the PKK must first publicly declare its stance on the call made by its founder and historical leader. Ozcan predicts a three-to-four-month process ahead, with a “roadmap” containing several critical points.

"After the statement that the terrorist PKK will make in response to Abdullah Ocalan's call, the Congress of the so-called Union of Kurdish Communities must be convened. The decision of the Congress will determine whether the PKK will fully disband or not. If so, how will this happen, to whom and when will the weapons be handed over? This must be clearly and precisely announced. However, the process will likely take about 3-4 months and will be closely monitored," said Ozcan.

What can be expected if the organization ignores Ocalan's call?

"If the call is not met with a positive response, it will become clear that Ocalan no longer holds authority over the organization he founded. Another aspect of the issue is what the pro-Kurdish DEM party, which has aligned itself with Ocalan, will do if the terrorist organization does not heed his call," the Turkish journalist noted, adding that as far as Ankara is concerned, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s stance has been more than clear.

Erdogan recently said that PKK "either lay down their arms, or they will be buried with them".

Samil Tayyar, an analyst close to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and a former AKP MP, stated that "the dissolution of Qandil (the PKK's main base in the Qandil Mountains of northern Iraq) alone will not be enough to meet the expectations for the process."

"If the PKK dissolves itself and lays down its arms unconditionally, this would truly be a historic decision - it would shift political paradigms and be a victory for all of Turkey. However, the issue is not limited to eliminating Qandil. It would be useful to inform the public whether there is an additional protocol to Öcalan's call, and whether agreements on general amnesty, constitutional changes, and other matters are on the agenda," Tayyar emphasized.

According to the same analyst, the most critical stage of the process is "the presence of PKK/YPG in its new headquarters in northeastern Syria."

"The process initiated by Ocalan’s call for the PKK to disband must not result in a "state gift" legitimizing the PKK’s presence in Syria," he told the Turkish newspaper Yeni Cag.

Ankara considers the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) - a US ally in Syria - to be the Syrian branch of the PKK and, therefore, part of the same terrorist organization.