site.btaMedia Review: January 17

The media carry comments and analyses of the election of the Rosen Zhelyazkov cabinet by a vote of 125-114, with no abstentions, on Thursday. The government coalition made up of GERB-UDF, BSP - United Left, and There Is Such a People (TISP) was voted in office by all MPs of the three groups and of Democracy, Rights and Freedoms (DRF).

POLITICS

Mediapool.bg sums up the new situation as follows: After the seventh parliamentary elections in four years, and nine months since the last regular government, Bulgaria once again has a regular cabinet. It meets the main public expectations without making any more ambitious commitments. Such commitments might emerge when its programme is presented in 30 days, after all efforts in the past two months were focused on negotiating a majority. GERB-UDF's coalition agreement with BSP and TISP is based on the proposals of Democratic Bulgaria, with which GERB started negotiations only to discontinue them. Afterwards, all commitments to exclude from power the leader of MRF - New Beginning, Delyan Peevski, have been removed the agreement, while other commitments remain, such as the mechanism for appointing members to the regulatory bodies.

The Capital weekly looks at the links that hold together the new cabinet. While the regular cabinet is good for Bulgaria's bid to join the Eurozone, the reforms of key institutions and regulatory bodies remain uncertain. The partnership of the three political entities has effectively ensured GERB's return to power, and in the manner Borisov most desired - not through experts as ministers, but through prominent party figures who participated in all three of his previous governments. Most importantly, GERB's leading role, which had been a political taboo in recent years, gets recognized through this cabinet. GERB will have control over 11 ministries, most of them key ones: finance, energy, defence, justice, education, the interior, foreign affairs, agriculture, and e-governance. As to the Movement for Rights and Freedoms close to Ahmed Dogan (the DRF group in Parliament), it negotiated its way into the coalition agreement through an annex, which at least on paper guarantees that the Movement will have a say on nominees for deputy ministers, regional governors and their deputies, as well as on nominees for the regulatory bodies elected by Parliament.

***

Interviewed by bTV on Friday, former prime minister Nikolay Denkov from Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) said he had no doubt that there would be enormous pressure on the ministers. The question is whether they will manage to follow their priorities and implement policies, or will be a facade behind which funds are distributed. On the one hand, this government is necessary, but on the other, it is very risky for the country, for some of the parties in it, and for some of the ministers. "As Borisov himself has said, there is a graveyard of parties around GERB, so those who joined the coalition risk becoming part of that graveyard," Denkov said. CC-DB will vote in favour on priorities including the eurozone, higher incomes and reducing inequality. When a two-thirds majority is required, CC-DB will be open to participating in discussions if invited.

In an interview with the Bulgarian National Radio (BNR), Bozhidar Bozhanov MP of CC-DB said he was concerned that the government majority would lack unity, for instance, on Bulgaria's entry in the eurozone - in principle, both TISP and BSP are in favour, but have some reservations for the time being. Commenting on Boyko Borissov's statement that the door to CC-DB is wide open, Bozhanov said CC-DB voted against the cabinet and is clearly in opposition, but will be constructive. Asked about the open door, MP Nadezhda Yordanova told the Bulgarian National Television (BNT) that CC-DB does not support the government because it does not answer many important issues, such as ending the grip of corruption on Bulgarian institutions.

Former interior minister Rumyana Bachvarova, a former ambassador to Israel, commented on bTV that almost all the ministers are quite experienced - most of them were MPs and have dealt with numerous crises. In her view, the Interior Ministry should focus on identifying global security threats.

***

On BNT, journalist Emilia Milcheva said GERB is put to the test because this is the party's first government which is not led by Borissov. Political analyst Stoycho Stoychev talked about the two smaller members of the government coalition. From the perspective of comparative political science, the small parties in such a coalition always bear the negatives because a small party gains from being in opposition and criticizing the government. Still, every party's raison d'etre is to participate in governance and to shape some policies. In this case, TISP and BSP joined the coalition because the disadvantages of early elections would outweigh the benefits.

Interviewed by bTV on Thursday evening, social analyst Dimitar Ganev from Research Center Trend said a government coalition of four members - as was the initial idea - would have been a better option. Still, a regular government is backed by a majority in Parliament and has a set timeline for action, which makes it better than any caretaker one. The immediate issues facing the Zhelyazkov cabinet are the drafting of the 2025 budget, entry in the eurozone, and the war in Ukraine.

Also on Thursday evening, political analyst Parvan Simeonov told BNT that the cabinet will be publicly acceptable but not popular; its top priority will be budget-related issues. President Rumen Radev will cut it some slack before starting to criticize it.

JUSTICE

On Wednesday, Parliament amended the Judicial System Act to terminate the procedure for the election of a prosecutor general where the acting holder of the post, Borislav Sarafov, was the only candidate. On Nova TV, Andrey Yankulov from the Anti-Corruption Fund and lawyer Dimitar Markovski discussed a possible referral of the revisions to the Constitutional Court. Yankulov said that according to constitutional law experts, there are legal grounds for the Constitutional Court to rule on the revisions to the Judiciary Act, but he personally cannot see who would refer the matter to the Court in the current situation. Also, he cannot see how 160 MPs out of 240 will reach agreement on the election of the SJC parliamentary quota in the near future. In contrast, Markovski opined that both Sarafov and the Supreme Administrative Court, which also needs a new president, could refer the matter to the Constitutional Court.

***

Interviewed by mediapool.bg, Ivan Bregov, Chief Expert at the Institute for Market Economics, says Delyan Peevski has no opponents in the judiciary where he is all-powerful: "Peevski has partners in the judicial system, but they are minority stakeholders. This has become a model that cannot be dismantled by normal democratic means." After Parliament managed to halt the election of Sarafov as prosecutor general, the next step is to elect a new Supreme Judicial Council (SJC), which will vote in the top prosecutor. The big question is whether CC-DB will be bold and proactive enough - if this coalition will become the cooperative opposition that continues the judicial reform and ensures the election of competent members to the new SJC, says Bregov.

***

A story in the Capital weekly looks at six ministers in Zhelyazkov's cabinet who have been charged, or have seen charges against them dropped, or have been acquitted, or have been remanded and then the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg has ruled against Bulgaria. The article looks at the personal stories of Rosen Zhelyazkov, Daniel Mitov, Grozdan Karadzhov, Manol Genov, Miroslav Borshosh and Borislav Gutsanov, saying that "they are instructive (…) for anyone aspiring to a political career". In this context, Finance Minister Temenuzhka Petkova needs to be particularly cautious as she might find herself under investigation at some point after a probe was launched about two years ago into the construction of the TurkStream gas pipeline, Capital says.

ECONOMY

The cover story in the Capital weekly, which comes out on Fridays, is about the Bulgarians' alcohol consumption, although the magazine cover features GERB leader Boyko Borissov and Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov. A story headlined "Between Habit and the New Wave" says that while alcohol consumption is declining in the West, especially among young people, the trend is still in its infancy in Bulgaria. The alcohol market in the country is growing slowly but steadily each year, reaching 80 million litres and BGN 2 billion in 2023. Nearly two in three Bulgarians drink alcoholic beverages daily. In Western Europe and the US, the sober curious lifestyle is becoming increasingly popular among young people, thanks in part to the influence of social media. However, trends usually arrive in Bulgaria with a delay, and this is no exception. Bulgarians continue to drink as before, if not more, with sales of hard liquor showing consistent growth in volume in the past 10 years, according to market data. The official annual consumption of hard liquor stands at 80 million litres, and homemade alcohol is estimated at 40 million litres. Per capita consumption by Bulgarians aged over 15 is a whopping 21.8 l, compared with 9 or 10 litres in Western Europe and around 13 litres in Lithuania and Latvia.

In a separate article, Ralica Scorcheva-Slavova, General Manager of Maxxium Bulgaria and President of spiritsBulgaria, cites research by spiritsBulgaria which found that Bulgarians enjoy a variety of alcoholic beverages: wine 77%, beer 75% and spirits 70%. Among spirits consumers, whiskey is the top choice (68%), followed by rakia (60%) and vodka (48%). Younger people prefer vodka, with two out of three naming it as their first choice. However, when choosing a single category, rakia (31%) and whiskey (27%) come first. Unlike some Western markets, where women's alcohol consumption is rising, the share of women drinking spirits in Bulgaria decreased from 61% in 2021 to 57% in 2023. Women also show less preference for rakia and whiskey and favour gin and liqueurs instead. Wine consumption among women in Bulgaria rose from 77% in 2021 to 82% in 2023, and beer consumption is also on the rise. Scorcheva also said Bulgarians drink everywhere: mostly at home and when visiting, followed by restaurants, nightclubs and bars, and even in daytime bars and outdoors, e.g. in the park. Ivana Radomirova, Executive Director of the Union of Brewers in Bulgaria, told Capital that alcohol-free beer consumption is increasing in Bulgaria: it accounted for 6.5 million litres in 2023 out of 5.1 million hectolitres total beer consumption.

***

Trud reports that according to a draft government decree, the Employment Agency is to start a register of Bulgarians aged between 16 and 65 who are not in employment, education or training. Official statistics put the number of economically inactive Bulgarians in the 15-64 age group at 468,400. Another story in Trud cites former caretaker finance minister Lyudmila Petkova as saying that 604 people under 26 years old earn monthly salaries over BGN 9,000, with many working in IT. However, there is a significant wage disparity among young workers - nearly half of employed people under 26 earn less than BGN 780 per month, which helps explain why many young Bulgarians seek job opportunities abroad.

FOREIGN POLICY

24 Chasa reports that former prime minister Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha (2001-2005) was awarded Romania's highest honour, the Grand Cross of the Star of Romania, by President Klaus Iohannis. The award was presented by Ambassador Brandusa Predescu at the Romanian Embassy in Sofia on Thursday. According to the Romanian Ambassador, the honour recognizes Saxe-Coburg-Gotha's exceptional contribution to strengthening Bulgarian-Romanian relations, particularly in 2001 when he worked with his Romanian counterpart Adrian Nastase to establish intensive cooperation between Sofia and Bucharest.

EUROZONE

The Capital weekly has an analysis by Kalin Anev Janse, CFO and Member of the Management Board of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Addressing the Banks and Business annual meeting on December 18, 2024, he talked of three mega-trends influencing Europe's medium- and long-term growth: geopolitical fragmentation, climate change and demographics. In his view, partly due to the election of a new US President and partly due to global trade disputes, Europe will be more strongly affected than any other region. Janse explained why Bulgaria should adopt the euro in the current context of strong uncertainty: The euro serves as both an asset and a safeguard against adverse headwinds. It is the second-largest reserve currency after the US dollar, accounting for 20% of official global forex reserves in 2023, compared to the dollar's approximately 60%. A growing number of reserve managers are turning to the euro, which is the preferred currency for financing sustainable development. In 2024, countries like Indonesia, Chile and Mexico chose the euro as the currency for issuing sustainable development bonds.

AIR FORCE

24 Chasa has a story about the Georgi Benkovski Bulgarian Air Force Academy, where an inspection found abuse of office by the Rector, General Julian Radoyski; airplanes that exist on paper only to secure a licence; lack of an airfield; failure to meet flight requirements; and instructors who are not authorized to teach. The inspection by the Defence Ministry's Inspectorate was the first since the school was re-established as an independent institution in 2020 and was prompted by a cadet's complaint that Gen. Radoyski had acted as an instructor on a Zlin aircraft without the necessary licence.