site.btaMedia Review: September 27

The start of the election campaign dominates Friday’s news media.

POLITICS

24 Chasa’s front-page story presents the results of a Trend opinion poll commissioned by the daily and showing that two-thirds of Bulgarians want parties to make the necessary compromises for a regular government to be formed; 19% believe that if the compromises have to be too big, new snap elections are the better option. This is the first poll after significant changes in the structures of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) over the past months. According to the results, seven formations will make it into the 51st National Assembly: GERB-UDF (24.8%), Vazrazhdane (15.6%), Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (15.1%), the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms Coalition of MRF Honorary Chairman Ahmed Dogan (8.5%), BSP – United Left Coalition (6.9%), There Is Such a People (6.9%), and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms - New Beginning Coalition of Delyan Peevski (5.8%). The Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) Party and Grandeur (Velichie) are very close to the 4% entry threshold, so they stand a chance.

In an interview for 24 Chasa, sociologist Dimitar Ganev of the Trend polling agency says that a regular government will require a four-party coalition, most probably between GERB-UDF, Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB), the BSP, and There Is Such a People (TISP). Still, whether these formations will succeed in forming a coalition depends a lot on the election campaign, during which GERB-UDF and CC-DB could blow up all potential cooperation bridges between them. Ganev notes that the survey’s results do not indicate a significant effect of the changes in the MRF and the BSP on the voters. There is neither a drop nor enthusiasim among voters over the Left wing’s unification. As for which of the fractions of the MRF will get more votes, it is hard for sociologists to predict because of the specifics of the MRF’s supporters.

Capital Weekly writes that Dogan’s franction - Alliance for Rights and Freedoms – relies mostly on influential figures among the Turkish community in mixed regions of Bulgaria, while Peevki’s MRF -  New Beginning relies on an army of mayors, business circles, and brokers of Roma votes. As for the other formations running in the snap elections, the weekly writes that those parties’ problems are evident from the lists of their MP candidates. GERB is trying to use their local influencial figures as well as the resource the public authority gives mayors and municipal councilors – a tactic that indicates some level of insecurity, perhaps because big local players in some regions have switched from GERB to Peevski’s New Beginning. CC-DB is so focused on internal problems that the three-party coalition’s list of candidates is all about which party will get how many MPs in the next Parliament, so that should the coalition fall apart, there would be enough members to form two separate parliamentary groups. In the BSP, the processes look linked to Peevski, because the party’s list contains figures linked to Peevski over the years, for example Kiril Dobrev. In the case of TISP and Vazrazhdane, there are no cardinal changes, which is understandable given how both formations get the support of voters unhappy with the traditional formations.

Mediapool.bg writes that former leader of Bulgaria without Censorship and former MEP Nikolay Barekov has again turned to politics. He will be the top-of-the-list candidate of the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms in Vratsa (Northeastern Bulgaria), Mediapool learned from its sources. Indirect confirmation of the news came from Barekov himself through his post on Facebook. He tagged himself, expressing emotion that he "feels pumped in Vratsa, Vratsa Region." Initially, the candidate list in Vratsa was headed by Alizan Yahova, but on Thursday it became clear that she had given up the post.

Trud’s front-page article is dedicated to the start of the election campaign on Friday and what sociologists say could be expected based on the latest opinion polls by Trend and Alpha Research. There is a clear trend at the start of the campaign: GERB-UDF is the top political force, and with a significant head start. The expected low voter turnout and the falling apart of formations will probably result in seven main players in the next Parliament plus two possible small parties: MECh and Velichie. The main difference between Trend’s and Alpha Research’s polls is that Alpha Research places CC-DB ahead of Vazrazhdane (14.4% and 14.2% of the votes, respectively), and the MRF - New Beginning Coalition ahead of TISP (6.1% and 5.4%, respectively). Evelina Slavkova of Trend commented for the daily that GERB’s big head start is the result not of some strong, huge mobilization of that formation but of the disruptions in the other parties. However, this election campaign, unlike previous ones, is expected to have a big impact on the voters’ decision, she added. Political expert Tatyana Bouroudzhieva commented that the election campaign will be very difficult for the parties. According to her, it is ever more important what mistakes they wil make and whether some of the small formations will manage to be aggressively interesting in order to make it into the 51st National Assembly.

Telegraf presents the results of the latest opinion polls, putting an emphasis on the voter turnout. According to Alpha Research’s poll, some 30-31% of Bulgarians eligible to vote are ready to vote in the snap parliamentary elections on October 27. Trend places the voter turnout at 38%.

Duma quotes constitutional law expert Assoc. Prof. Nataliya Kisselova, who is one of BSP’s candidates for member of Parliament, as saying on Bulgarian National Television that “most citizens are quite angry at these fruitless parliaments.” "The hundred solutions proposed by the BSP - United Left coalition can be a basis for negotiations with other parliamentary groups to form a government," she said, given as an example the matters of nuclear energy as well as whether fertile agricultural land can be used for renewable energy sources.

Bulgarian National Television’s morning show focused on the start of the election campaign and people’s expectations. Sociologists Genoveva Petrova of Alpha Research and Parvan Simeonov of Gallup commented on the latest opinion polls’ results, and political experts Teodora Yovcheva, Ivaylo Iliev, and Maraya Tsvetkova commented on the potential regular government. According to Petrova, for the first time the majority of people are pessimistic about the formation of a regular government after these elections. "This is a hitherto unobserved degree of people's concern about how things are going in politics. Even in their daily lives they feel the problems that are created by the lack of normally functioning institutions. In a possible new election, we cannot be sure what kind of reaction people can expect if things continue like this," she commented. Simeonov said that the expected activity is not high, and he expressed the hope of an eventful election campaign. Yovcheva said that a large share of those planning to vote want a regular government even if big compromises must be made, which was not the case back in 2021, which shows the current situation is critical. Iliev said that with an expected voter turnout of some 2 million people, a potential future government would have a very weak social basis. “We are going to the elections without knowing the answer to the main question: why were these elections necessary in the first place?” he noted. Tsvetkova said that parties’ lack of action has led to the worsening of processes which began with the last regular government’s fall. 

On bTV’s morning show, sociologist Pavel Valchev of Alpha Research commented that Bulgarian voters are tired of the frequent elections. They are demotivated, and certain tension can be felt, he added. Over 60% of the polling agency’s respondents describe the political situation as “extremely worrisome; institutions are not acting, and there is destabilization.” People hope for development, because that affects their daily life at a basic level. Asked if they expect a regular government will successfully be formed, 40.6% gave an affirmative answer, as opposed to 53.8%. 

On Nova TV’s morning show, Continue the Change co-leader Assen Vassilev said that his formation will not support a government under the first cabinet-forming mandate. “We need a cabinet with a clear programme and people who can implement it. We have given a simple description of a prime minister-designate that is not restrictive: someone with authority, an economist or a lawyer who can deliver the programme we uphold. All political parties should be looking for a person. We have no one in mind that we can pull out of our back pocket,” he said. “The people in Dogan’s coalition reared Peevski. How can we trust them when they say there are not against corruption? I do not know whether they are a potential partner,” Vassilev also said. Vazrazhdane leader Kostadin Kostadinov said that if his party comes second in the elections and receives a government-forming mandate, Vazrazhdane will be the one setting the conditions for the talks with the other parties. "We are open to talks on priorities that we consider important. One of them is the renegotiation of the terms of the Recovery and Resilience Plan, as well as key elements of Bulgaria's membership in the European Union", Kostadinov said. Peevski will not be invited to the talks, Kostadinov specified.

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Telegraf has an interview with historian Vesselin Metodiev, who comments on Wednesday’s EU decision that Albania be decoupled from North Macedonia on its accession path. In Metodiev’s words, the news that Albania is starting accession negotiations in October and North Macedonia is not, has caused terrible horror in Skopje. 

On Bulgarian National Radio, BTA correspondent in Skopje Marinela Velichkova commented that she expects a clear position from the Albanian parties in the country so that it would become clearer what comes next. "What happened yesterday [Thursday] was in the shadow of [Hungarian Prime Minister] Viktor Orban's visit. Even in the overview news, the fact that Orban landed in Ohrid was the leading topic against the background of this important information for the Republic of North Macedonia. The behaviour was mixed and in some ways a bit strange. Today [Friday], Viktor Orban will probably be the lead story again. When and how the Republic of North Macedonia will realise the gravity of this decision remains to be seen, it seems to me," Velichkova said. She also commented on the French proposal - the negotiating framework which was voted by all EU Member States and envisages EU accession negotiations to start with North Macedonia once it inscribes Bulgarians living there in its Constitution. In her words, somehow the fact that all 27 Member States accepted this negotiating framework remained under the radar; Bulgaria was in the role of the next threat and the French proposal was presented as an attempt to Bulgarianise North Macedonia. According to many analysts, this "patriotic rhetoric" was one of the reasons VMRO-DPMNE won the elections in North Macedonia, Velichkova noted. In almost 100 days of rule, apart from the so-called French+ proposal, no clear plan for the future European integration of North Macedonia, which this government claims is a priority, was ever heard, she added. She said there was little specificity on the EU and European integration. "We are in a strange situation," the journalist commented.Asked when North Macedonia can expect to join the EU, the BTA correspondent said that the situation has not changed. “It is as if different languages are being spoken,” she specified. People in North Macedonia lack a completely clear picture of what is possible and what is not when it comes to EU accession, she added.

On Bulgarian National Television’s morning show, journalist Milena Milotinova commented: "North Macedonia's entire behaviour has led to this [decoupling] decision, which was taken by the European Council in Brussels. All their actions so far and warnings from the European Commission have not been heard by Skopje. What the Commission is telling them has not been heard: respect your negotiating framework and make the constitutional changes to give rights to the Bulgarians in North Macedonia, respect your treaties. Proving this to Belgrade played a bad joke on the politicians in Skopje." Historian Prof. Hristo Matanov said that the Hungarian policy has provoked the EU. “The idea that North Macedonia has some lobby in the EU has crumbled. Because, had they had a lobby, what happened would not have occurred. Albania has made great progress in the last years. That country is progressing, they have met all of EU’s requirements. Bulgaria is not to blame for EU’s decision, which Skopje calls a French one, when it is in fact a European decision,” Matanov argued.

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On bTV’s morning show, Constitutional Court judge and former caretaker minister of justice Yanaki Stoilov commented that the 50th National Assembly’s work was like a divorce where one partner is trying to cause trouble for the other. "There is a legal requirement to periodically assess the impact of legislation. This is done pro forma or not at all. Unfortunately, in Parliament, it is often the case that an action is taken without being clear what was done before - what positive or negative results it has led to," he said. "A majority that was unwilling or unable to elect a regular government continued to act as an unofficial partnership until the very end. There you have a paradox that raises many questions," he also said.

ECONOMY

In an interview for Trud, Prof. Boyan Durankev, economist, comments on what changes in the tax legislation is necessary. According to him, at present the legislation is such that the most protected minority in Bulgaria is that of the super rich, who have too much money to count it. He recommends the introduction of moderate progressive taxation. "For example, by reducing the taxation of the minimum wage from 10% to 8%, but with a progressive scale for people with high incomes: 15% for those earning between BGN 5,000 and 20,000 a month (4.4% of the working population), 18% for those earning between BGN 20,000 and 50,000 (less than 1%) and 20% for those earning more than BGN 50,000. Accordingly, a progressive corporate tax. But there are other things to think about. For example, quite a few foreign companies are in Bulgaria precisely because of low taxes. We need to assess to what extent taxation should be increased so that they do not flee to another, 'more right" country,'” the economist tells the daily. He also comments on the potential impact of the US presidential elections on Bulgaria, saying that there already is such an impact. He thinks some of the election campaign programmes will end up borrowing from the US presidential candidates' programmes, for example proposals for government subsidies for first homes for young families with children, a return to public housing, and higher taxes for the super rich.

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Capital Weekly’s main topic is “The Longevity Code”. The attempts at solving the issue of ageing is attracting big investments and billionaires’ interest. Prolonging human life has become the next big thing after AI and the most attractive product to sale. According to Boryana Gerasimova, founder of  the Re:Gena company for genetic studies and consultations, the interest in the topic of longevity is rather part of a much-needed discussion on personalized medicine and its practical application. According to her, Bulgaria as the country with the lowest life expectancy has huge potential to improve this indicator should the State focus on preventive medicine, and the returns from that investment would be several-fold. In her words, more and more people in Bulgaria are willing to make long-term investments in their health, which leads to the emergence of products and services in this area, but these are at an early stage of development and need to be more cooperation with international partners and investment. Another longevity innovation in Bulgaria that builds on the information from our genes is being developed by a start-up company, EPIX.AI. It offers personalized solutions for measuring biological ageing and related diseases. The article ends with a quote from the Vox magazine that despite all the research around the globe, there is yet no news about how to achieve longevity. At present, one has three best – and rather boring - ways to do that: healthy diet, regular exercise, and good sleep. 

In a related story, Capital Weekly looks at the reasons for Bulgarians having the lowest life expectancy and the worst health in Europe. “The short answer is the unhealthy lifestyle: a polluted environment, sedentary life, poor diet, smoking and drinking, and irregular medical checkups,” the article reads.

Telegraf’s front-page story is about drunk driving in Bulgaria, with a positive downward trend being observed.

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Segabg.com cites National Statistical Institute data for the second quarter of 2024, according to which the housing prices continue to grow and, interestingly, there is a shift in the cities with the fastest rising prices. After years of the ranking being topped by Sofia, Varna, Burgas or Plovdiv, now Ruse (on the Danube) came first. It turns out that for a year, residential property in the country has appreciated by an average of 15%, and only in the second quarter of the year compared to the first - by 3.4%. Behind the average percentages, however, there are huge differences - in Sofia and Burgas for three months prices have increased by 2.9%, in Plovdiv by 5.3%, and in Ruse by 13.2%. There is another surprise: in the April-June period, in Stara Zagora prices decreased, albeit by 0.2% only, the article reads.