site.btaVoter Support for Top Five Political Forces in Parliament Remains Virtually Unchanged - Poll

Support for the top five political parties in Parliament hasn't changed much recently, according to a national survey made public Wednesday by Market Links.

The survey was conducted from August 14 to 23, 2024, with 1,038 adults through in-person and online interviews. It was funded and carried out by bTV and Market Links.

The competition for second place is still as close as it was in May and June. It's unclear how the split in the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) will affect the results of the October 27 snap parliamentary elections. There are also doubts about whether There Is Such a People (TISP) and Velichie will make it into Parliament.

The survey shows that GERB-UDF remains in the lead, with support of 15.5% among all eligible voters and 21.9% among decided voters. MRF, a solid party during the poll, is backed by 8.1% of all eligible voters, or 15.4% of decided voters; Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) by 8% and 14.3%, respectively; Vazrazhdane by 7.8% and 11.5%; the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) by 4.8% and 6.2%; TISP by 3.6% and 3.2%; and Velichie by 1.3% and 2%.

About 4.5% of all eligible voters, or 6.7% of decided voters, will support other parties. 25.5% of all eligible voters, or 16.3% of decided voters, are undecided, and 16.7% will not vote.

The survey also shows that 4.3% of all eligible voters and 2.5% of decided voters would choose the "I do not support anyone" option.

Voter turnout is expected to be around 40%, similar to June's level. The key here will be the political forces’ messages during the campaign and the overall tone that the leading political entities, and GERB in particular, will set, the survey shows.

Some of the political parties’ voter bases have indicated a higher than average willingness to campaign for higher voter turnout. These include supporters of CC-DB, TISP, and Velichie.

In this election campaign, it will be important for parties not to take for granted their core support. Only two-thirds of those planning to vote have decided who to support. If turnout stays the same as in June, it means over 700,000 people haven't made up their minds yet.

Supporters of different parties vary in their loyalty. MRF and TISP supporters are very committed to voting for their party, while BSP, GERB-UDF, and CC-DB have about 65% of their supporters firmly backing them.

Market Links notes that Vazrazhdane usually manages to win over undecided voters just before election day, which helps them compensate for having fewer core supporters.

Bulgarian society is starting to see the political crisis as normal, according to the polling agency.

The first caretaker government led by Dimitar Glavchev ended with low approval, similar to Nikolay Denkov’s government in March. The 50th National Assembly had an approval of 6-8%, reflecting a deep crisis of trust in the Bulgarian Parliament.