site.btaUPDATED RES Power Generation to Exceed Bulgaria's Projected Gross Electricity Consumption by 50% by 2033

By 2033, power generation from renewable energy sources (RES) in Bulgaria is projected to exceed this country’s projected gross electricity consumption by 50%, according to a 2024-2033 grid development plan of the Electricity System Operator's (ESO), which will be discussed at a public consultation on Thursday at the Energy and Water Regulatory Commission. Bulgaria's draft strategy also envisages development of new nuclear capacities which is not included in ESO's plan, the operator said.

ESO has made a forecast for the development of gross electricity consumption in Bulgaria, which is in line with the forecasts of the European Commission until 2050, the Sustainable Energy Development Agency, the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, and the Finance Ministry (in terms of GDP). The forecast also takes into account ESO's experience in recent years showing that electricity consumption varies within a narrow margin, with the maximum projections of all years being far from its realization and projected trend. Based on this, two main scenarios of electricity consumption development have been adopted: a maximum one and a minimum one.

ESO adds the Sustainable Energy Development Strategy draft scenario to these. In line with the European decarbonization targets for 2050, the draft strategy foresees a steady increase in electricity consumption due to electrification in the heating, transport and industry sectors, including green hydrogen production. In 2033, gross electricity consumption is expected to reach 41 400 GWh.

The maximum scenario for gross electricity consumption matches the trend of the European Commission's reference scenario for final electricity consumption in the country for the period 2015 - 2025 and is similar to the Sustainable Energy Development Strategy draft scenario. It foresees a moderate increase in electricity consumption. In developing this scenario, a delay in the implementation of various innovative measures to increase energy efficiency has been assumed. By 2033, gross consumption is expected to reach 41 450 GWh.

The minimum scenario assumes that the level of electricity consumption is maintained over the whole period due to more intensive implementation of energy efficiency measures. In 2033, gross electricity consumption is expected to reach 37 950 GWh.