site.btaMedia Review: June 10

ELECTION RESULTS

On Sunday, Bulgarians went to the polls to vote for a national and European parliament. With 64% of processed tally sheets, GERB leads with 23.65% of vote, followed by the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) with 15.89%. Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) remain third with 15.08% and Vazrazhdane are fourth with 14.33%. Fifth is the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) with 6.87%. There Is Such a People (TISP) won 6.31% of the vote, and Velichie [Grandeur] took 4.98%.

SURPRISE WIN

Surprisingly, Velichie [Grandeur] became the seventh party to make the 4% barrier to Parliament. The political party was registered on July 25, 2023 in Vetrino, Varna Region. The co-founder is Nikolay Markov. In the last local elections Velichie [Grandeur] won 6 seats on the municipal council of Vetrino.

"We are close to people who want to get the job done. We want to stop creating new laws and enforce the old ones. Bulgaria has perfect legislation on how to keep order in Bulgaria, but it is not observed. The National Assembly should exercise control over the executive," said Ivelin Mihaylov, the ideologue of the party. He and the party's official chairman Nikolay Markov, who was expelled from the National Service for Protection, were interviewed on Nova TV's morning programme. The party will participate in thematic coalitions, he explained. He was adamant that they would not support the formation of any government.

Here are some more takeaways. "We are focused on Bulgaria's economy, which needs to start producing. For example, we have a shortage of workers, but we cannot hire from abroad," Mihaylov said. "On Ukraine, we have differences with Vazrahdane. Kostadinov [Vazrazhdane’s leader] wants us to help Russia and we are for neutrality." “We are for staying in NATO and the EU categorically. We are not Euro-Atlantics. We are Bulgarians and for us now this is the best decision", Mihaylov further said. He said that they work well with GERB in the local government of Vetrino, but that the national policy of Boyko Borissov's party is disastrous. He denied Capital reports that he supports armed units under the guise of a sports club.

According to him, his dispute with the publisher of Capital, Ivo Prokopiev, was over his desire to install wind turbines in Vetrino - the municipality from which Velichie started. "We need to put the parliamentary republic back on the agenda and throw light on how governance decisions are made. With these votes Velichie [Grandeur] will not be a factor in forming a government," said Markov about the role of the party. As a state Bulgaria is bankrupt and has no possibility to fulfil its main function, Mihaylov added. According to Nikolay Markov, the data of the Finance Ministry were falsified.

Dobromir Zhivkov of Market Links said: "The profile of this party is very specific. Even if we assume that it has escaped us, this is due to the fact that this is a party that is strongly represented in North-Eastern Bulgaria. There is a strong influence mainly. With this result, Velichie goes from a regional to a national party.”

POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

TrudNews.bg writes that the elections for a national and European Parliament have been marked by the comeback of GERB, who were leading by more than 10% over the second political force, according to exit polls on Sunday. The MRF, Vazrazhdane and CC-DB were running neck-to-neck for the second place.

In the 50th National Assembly GERB and the MRF can have between 115 and 117 seats, thus giving political analysts grounds to predict a short horizon for a future cabinet. A government with a span of a few months or a year has been outlined by analysts as the most optimistic scenario at the end of the election day. Some have even been more extreme. They said it was unlikely that a government would be formed and the country would probably go to the polls again in the autumn.

“I don't see how a government will be formed. We can't do it only with the MRF. The CC-DB can only do it with Vazrazhdane and the BSP from what I understand, but they cannot do it with GERB and the MRF. Vazrazhdane say "it's either just us or nobody," so there is no math in this case," GERB leader Boyko Borissov said after the vote.

His statement showed that a minority government is unlikely to happen, as some political experts predicted. GERB insists on a partisan cabinet, in which all participants would be politically responsible. The party is against an expert government, as the responsibilities become unclear.

A second option for a cabinet, according to political analysts, is a three-party government, most likely of GERB, MRF and There Is Such a People (TISP). TISP, however, said it would only participate in an expert government.

The other possible partner is CC-DB, but the entire campaign of the coalition was against GERB and the MRF, election experts said. Moreover, the CC co-chairs were quick to announce that they would be in opposition. Observers speculated that the coalition between CC and Democratic Bulgaria (DB) may break up and that DB would support a government of GERB and the MRF.

At the end of election day voter turnout was at around 30%. More than 3% percent of voters chose “none of the above” option.

ANALYSES

In 24 Chasa, analyst Dimitar Ganev says that a red card has been shown to the entire political class because the turnout is the lowest since 1989. Bulgaria is holding the sixth general election in three years. There is no formation with the potential to be recognised as an alternative, but there is fatigue with polticians and voting, which has led to this low turnout. A National Assembly and possibly a government that will be formed will certainly have very weak legitimacy. The results of Velichie and Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) without any doubt signal a simmering huge protest vote. The CC-DB are back to support levels of around 360,000votes - the result of Democratic Bulgaria in the 2021 elections.

There are three scenarios for coalitions after the June 9 vote, according to Ganev. Under the first one the majority from the previous National Assembly - GERB, CC-DB and MRF will be reproduced, which will be a huge challenge. The second option envisages a coalition between GERB, MRF and a third party as two parties will certainly not be able to form a cabinet. Who would be the third? One possibility is CC-DB.  Ganev rules out Vazrazhdane and BSP too, because it has a complicated position on the conflict in Ukraine and this would be difficult to negotiate. In addition Kornelia Ninova wants a non-partisan expert cabinet, which doesn’t appeal to GERB and the MRF. Another possibility is There Is Such a People.

A government after a split of CC-DB is also an option that should not be ruled out, but it comes with risks. 

Both CC and DB understand perfectly well that joining the ruling coalition again would mean for them a very heavy electoral blow because their supporters hardly want their presence in such an alliance. So, according to Ganev, the political logic is to stay together in opposition.

The third option is a minority government, which seems unlikely, because Delyan Peevski and the MRF want to show, besides the fact that they have come out of isolation, that they can now be a legitimate partner and enter the government through the front door.

A minority cabinet of GERB alone would mean assuming all power. However, this would give GERB a disproportionate amount of representation in the executive branch, as it happened with PP. So a minority government is a very difficult scenario to implement, which is unlikely to gather support.

***

Interviewed by TrudNews.bg, political analyst Stoycho Stoychev dwells on the alternatives for forming a government. According to him, GERB will try to form a government, especially if their 10% lead remains. The question is what will be the formula? The options are not many, they are two or three. One option is to make a broader coalition as in 2014 with smaller parties, which will be backed by the Movement for Rights and Freedoms. The other option is to propose a minority government on GERB's mandate and an expert prime minister.

This is actually the easiest option because many MPs can back such a cabinet. And the third option, which is ruled out for the moment is a government between GERB and another party, let's say MRF or Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB), if they have half of the seats in Parliament. 

The question is how sustainable this majority will be. GERB voters will not be enthusiastic about such a two-party coalition with CC-DB or MRF, so this option seems the least likely. So the choice is either between a broad coalition with small parties, or an expert minority cabinet with GERB’s mandate without any formal coalition.

With a smaller lead, then very easily there will be new elections in the autumn. But the likelihood that there will be elections next year is very high - regardless of whether there will be a regular or a caretaker government, because a lot of things can happen in the autumn with the war in Ukraine and the presidential elections in the US.

EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

French President Emmanuel Macron has announced that he is dissolving the French parliament and  called early elections for June 30. A second round will be held on July 7, Monday's media report

Earlier it became clear that Marine Le Pen's far-right party, National Rally, won the European elections decisively.

"The rise of nationalists, of demagogues, is a danger for our nation, but also for our Europe, for France's place in Europe and in the world. I have confidence in our democracy. Let the sovereign people have their say," Macron said

He admitted that his party's results were not good.

Le Pen's party won about 32% of the vote, which is an increase of 10% compared with the previous European elections five years ago and leads Macron's party by about 17% points, according to the first exit polls. The Socialists have about 14%.

Le Pen and her 28-year-old leading candidate, the increasingly popular Jordan Bardella, have tried to frame the EU election as a mid-term referendum on Macron's mandate, targeting discontent with immigration, crime and the two-year inflation crisis.

***

24 Chasa wrirtes that Europe's serious concern that far-right political formations are gaining momentum is already a fact. According to exit polls in the European Parliament (EP) elections on Sunday, they scored big victories in France, Germany and Austria. The vote in Europe was expected to "shift" the EP to the right and increase the number of Eurosceptics.

According to exit poll data, the far-right Alternative for Germany came second with 16.5% of the vote, up from 11% in the 2019 vote. The conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union bloc won the vote by a wide margin, garnering a total of 29.5% of the vote. At the same time, all three parties in German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition suffered major losses.

In Austria, the far-right Freedom Party is the likely winner with 27% of the vote. The ruling Austrian People's Party, on the other hand, takes 23.5%, which is 11.1% less than in the last vote.

In the Netherlands, exit polls showed that the anti-immigration party of nationalist Geert Wilders will win 7 of the country's 29 seats in the European Parliament, up from zero in 2019. Wilders' Freedom Party is second, but will have only one less MP than the winners - the Green Left coalition.

In Italy, voting ended at midnight, but the predictions were for a victory of the right-wing Italian Brothers of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

The first results in Greece showed that the ruling New Democracy was first with between 28 and 32%. The main opposition SYRIZA takes between 15.2% and 18.2%.

In Romania, the two ruling formations, the Social Democratic Party and the centre-right National Liberal Party, took a combined 53% of the vote, while the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians was second with 16% of the vote.

Late on Sunday it became clear that the European People's Party (EPP) remains the largest formation in the European Parliament. The EPP will have 181 seats in the 720-seat parliament. The Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats takes 135 seats. Renew Europe will have 82 seats.