site.btaBulgaria's Growth Forecast for 2024 Downgraded by IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its forecast for Bulgaria’s economic growth in 2024 and projected higher inflation, according to the latest World Economic Outlook titled "Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence".

The IMF expects Bulgaria's economy to grow by 2.7% in 2024, down from the 3.2% growth projected in the October 2023 World Economic Outlook.

In 2023, the Bulgarian economy grew by 1.8%.

In its latest update on the global economy, the IMF projects an economic growth of 2.9% for Bulgaria in 2025.

In terms of inflation, the IMF projects a rate of 3.4% in 2024, up from the 3% consumer price growth forecast in the October report. Inflation is expected to fall to 2.7% in 2025.

According to the IMF's spring outlook, unemployment in Bulgaria will go down to 4.3% in 2024, compared to the 4.4% projected in the October report. In 2023, unemployment stood at 4.4%. IMF experts project that the indicator will continue to decline in 2025, reaching 4.2%.

Forecasts by other institutions

Bulgaria's real gross domestic product is expected to increase by 1.9% in 2024, the European Commission said in February. At that time, the Commission upgraded its forecast for Bulgaria’s GDP growth compared to its autumn forecast.

By comparison, the Bulgarian National Bank projected GDP growth of 2.2% for 2024 in its March macroeconomic forecast, which was published earlier on Tuesday. The Finance Ministry’s forecast at the time of the national budget's adoption was for GDP growth of 3.2%.

Regional context

The IMF's spring forecast for economic growth in Europe in general was revised upward to 1.6% for 2024 compared with the October estimate of 1.5%.

Romania's economy is expected to grow by 2.8% and Greece’s to pick up by 2.0%.

The IMF projects GDP growth of 3% for Croatia in 2024, an upward revision from the October report, which forecasted growth at 2.7%.