site.btaMedia Review: March 27

CABINET CRISIS

Trud has headlined its frontpage top story "Elections: Assemblage's Gift to Vazrazhdane". The daily quotes Prof. Mihail Konstantinov as saying that Vazrazhdane is the only party that would boost its parliamentary representation after early elections, from 37 seats now to 50 in the next National Assembly, which would make it the second largest group in the legislature. By a conservative estimate, Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) will have 50 MPs, 13 fewer than the 63 now. Trud quotes a survey of the European Council on Foreign Relations according to which three Vazrazhdane candidates will be elected to the European Parliament on June 9 - as many as CC-DB, while GERB stand a chance of winning six MEP seats. Coverage continues on two full inside pages, including a comment by Prof. Plamen Kirov, who wonders how the incumbent Parliament will continue to sit during the campaign when 90% of its members will be seeking re-election. "They will most probably focus all their energies on irritating the caretaker cabinet, demanding hearings and question time instead of legislating," the constitutional law expert says. Political scientist Stoycho Stoychev points out that CC-DB will bear the brunt of the collapse of the power-sharing coalition. In his opinion, a simultaneous holding of the European and early parliamentary elections is the best option under the circumstances. Stoychev is afraid that if the two types of elections take place separately over a week-long interval, voter turnout will hit rock bottom. Social anthropologist Haralan Alexandrov describes CC as "opportunists" and an entity that initially parasitized on the protests against the Boyko Borissov cabinet, then on the energy of President Rumen Radev, then on the support of Bulgaria's foreign partners, and finally on GERB's parliamentary support in the course of nine months. Unlike them, DB have an ideology, an agenda and an objective that they have been pursuing for years and are part of the systemic parties despite commanding relatively small support, Alexandrov says. Sociologist Evelina Slavkova believes that "two-in-one" elections would have a mobilizing effect on the electorate.

Duma headlines its leading frontpage item by a quotation from Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) leader Korneliya Ninova, who said that "BSP remained the only alternative that did not embrace GERB. We resisted the temptation to accept proposals for sharing in assemblages and backstage deals. For years we have been consistent, principled and unyielding and will remain that way." On an inside page, the daily quotes Ciela Norma Executive Director Veselin Todorov as saying that a simultaneous conduct of the European and national elections would cost the public purse BGN 100 million less. If held separately, the early parliamentary elections should take place on June 23 at the earliest.

In an interview for 24 Chasa, PR expert Diana Damyanova comments that instead of a replacement of 50% of the people in the security services, the regulators and the judicial system, CC-DB opted for 0% replacement because they cannot replace 100%. This throws them back to square one. The result is a lose-lose situation and not a win-win one. In her opinion, CC-DB have just one option: to say they are unable to form a cabinet, that the crisis must be addressed soon and, for this reason, they should take the cabinet-forming mandate and return it immediately. Damyanova points out that Boyko Borissov's only possible strategy is to fit in into the new political reality and is ready to help its improvement, provided that he will not be bothered about his past from now on. Asked why right-wingers in Bulgaria remain chronically without a project to vote for, the expert says that such people build their future by themselves and want the State to stay out of their way. People with small, medium and large businesses find it more difficult to choose a political party to vote for, unlike the proletariat, who are easier to organize and have a clear economic interest, the interviewee notes.

On the Wednesday morning show of Bulgarian National Television (BNT), political scientist Petar Cholakov said that in the next parliament GERB-UDF will probably carry more weight and CC-DB less weight, which will give the former a stronger negotiating position. According to political scientist Strahil Deliiski, Bulgaria is entering a long process of disintegration of its political system.

Asked by a BNT interviewer whether during the election campaign CC-DB will categorically say "never together with GERB and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF)",  CC-DB Co-chair Atanas Atanasov answered: "I don't say anything of the kind categorically, and I don't think obstacles should be placed to lead to a major political crisis. After the elections, we will expect our Euro-Atlantic partners to accept our reform programme."

CORRUPTION

In an analysis published on www.dnevnik.bg, Prof. Hristo Pirinski argues that the exoneration of "corruption scheme consumers" is completely wrong. He notes that in Bulgaria bribe payers are often perceived as all but victims of the corruption scheme and even get a "premium" from the public in the form of empathy and compassion. Such people are often protected by the law because the legal system does not facilitate their investigation.

JUDICIAL REFORM

Interviewed on Bulgarian National Radio, lawyer Velislav Velichkov, who chairs the Justice for All Initiative, said that when the new Judicial System Act is adopted next year, "it will be revised beyond recognition by its authors and [Justice Minister] Atanas Slavov, but the prosecutor service will like it very much, and I think that [acting Prosecutor General] Borislav Sarafov is popping the Champagne." One reason why the passage of the law will be delayed beyond the end of 2024 is that there will be another round of early elections this year and two caretaker cabinets, Velichkov predicted, assuming that GERB and President Radev have made a deal on this matter. According to the interviewee, even the next parliament will be unable to elect a Surpreme Prosecutorial Council or a Supreme Judicial Council, which means that a new prosecutor general and a new president of the Supreme Administrative Court cannot be elected, either.

WAR IN UKRAINE

In Duma, Yuri Mihalkov comments on Tuesday's statement by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell that EU support for the war in Ukraine is in the EU's own interest and in the interest of the US as a global player. Mihalkov sees this as a glaring admission of the EU's "mean and selfish nature" and its "criminal essence". Next, Borrell's statement practically showed that "the EU is a crutch of American hegemony" and a readiness of the EU to be a puppet of America as a "reliable partner" for bloodshed, devastation and chaos worldwide, the author argues. In the third place, he sees Borrell's words as making clear that the EU has turned from peacemaker to warmonger. "If Russia wins the war, the West will not lose territories, wealth, people or capital. As far as Russia is concerned, however, the war is just because it is otherwise threatened by dismemberment and plunder of at least USD 13 trillion of its wealth, and impoverishment as under Yeltsin," Mihakov insists. He calls on Bulgarians to take the chance and stop the warmongers by voting against GERB, CC-DB and the MRF if and when early parliamentary elections are held.

FINANCE

24 Chasa has interviewed former finance minister Milen Velchev, who argues that an abolition of the flat income tax and reintroduction of progressive taxation, recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), would not boost public revenue but would make lots of people and companies hide back in the grey sector. He notes that the Fund advises Bulgaria to abandon a tax policy that has been acknowledged as the best one, which raises quite a few questions. Velchev says that social-security contributions are high and at some point their reduction should be considered. This, however, cannot be done now because of the huge and constantly growing deficit of the pension system. The assessed values at which local taxes are levied on immovable properties must correspond to the market values, and if the former lag far behind the latter, they must be adjusted, the former finance minister believes. Asked about the credit expansion, Velchev comments that there are not yet sufficiently good business projects that deserve loan financing and, at the same time, business has built up cash reserves that it can use without the need of borrowing. Hence, households are leading on the loan market, thanks to their positive expectations of better income and standard of living. The interviewee agrees with the IMF that deviations from the standard VAT rate should be allowed only as an exception. He shares the view that budgetary policy in recent years has been pushing up inflation. "I don't think that Bulgaria can enter the eurozone with [Finance Minister] Assen Vassilev only and nobody else, but I cannot assert that his replacement would be painless," Velchev says in his interview.

EURO CHANGEOVER

Economist Petar Ganev commented on Nova TV Wednesday morning that the introduction of the euro in Bulgaria will push prices up by a negligible 0.1-0.2%. According to financial analyst Preslav Raykov, Bulgarians' purchasing power will not change after the country's entry in the eurozone. In medium and long term, it will only be improving, the expert predicted. Economist Georgi Angelov explained that bank accounts will be translated from lev into euro terms without extra fees, at the official exchange rate and not at the rate used by the banks. Ganev expects the month-long period during which payment in both currencies will be possible to pose the greatest challenge to retailers.

HUMAN TRAFFICKING

Antoaneta Radeva, chief expert at the National Commission for Combating Trafficking in Human Beings, told Telegraph that 30 victims of sexual exploitation were identified last year. They were trafficked to Germany, Spain and France. The 18 victims of labour exploitation were trafficked to Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and Poland for work in construction or farming. In the case of women, the two forms of exploitation (labour and social) are often combined. Human trafficking victims come mostly from the areas of Montana, Vratsa, Pleven and Yambol. Forty pretrial proceedings for human trafficking were instituted in January-September 2023, and 33 individuals were convicted. The expert said that Bulgarian babies are sold again in Greece and Cyprus.

GREEN TRANSITION

In an analysis contributed to www.mediapool.bg, Velislava Peeva writes that GERB, the MRF, the BSP and other parties seem to be the only ones benefiting from the survival of State-owned Maritsa East 2 TPP on government subsidies despite polluting the area. These parties mislead locals that they will leave alone coal-fired electricity productions, and people keep voting for them. After this abnormal situation continued for years, the power plant found itself trapped in the liberal electricity market, where prices are below production costs, and of a judgment that may close it down as a source of excessive pollution under EU standards after a five-year court battle. The 2,300 staff of the facility risk losing their jobs unless the plant implements its just transition projects.

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

Former environment and water minister Borislav Sandov said on National Radio Wednesday morning that just 3% of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan Green Pillar have been implemented halfway the operational period, while the Green Pillar accounts for 37% of the entire plan. He blamed the political crisis in recent years and the lack of reforms. Commenting on the fact that Bulgaria ranks among the top EU Member States in per capita waste and last in resource productivity, Sandov noted that certain obsolete and ineffective types of production are most energy- and carbon-intensive.

PUBLIC PROCUREMENT

In an analysis in www.segabg.com, Tanya Petrova looks into what she calls "a total disaster due to incompetence and corruption" with public procurement procedures at the Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works (maintenance of the national road network), the Ministry of Electronic Governance (a BGN 633 million project for countrywide deployment of digital infrastructure), and the Ministry of Transport and Communications (procurement of new rolling stock for the BDZ Bulgarian State Railways). "There are also other unlaunched procurements under the Recovery and Resilience Plan. As a result of these painful failures, Bulgaria may lose billions of leva in grant funding," the author writes. 

CULTURAL HERITAGE

Interviewed for Telegraph, National Institute of Immovable Cultural Heritage Director Petar Petrov says that just 15% of the 40,000-plus registered cultural landmarks in Bulgaria are in good condition. About 10% are irreversibly demolished and only few of them can be restored using authentic data. Another 35% are in an emergency condition. The remaining 40% are in a good technical status but their authenticity has been compromised or more or less lost as a result of inadequate interventions, repairs, heightening, remodelling and inept energy renovation.