site.bta 2014 Saw Political Aftershocks - Institute of Social Values

2014 Saw Political Aftershocks - Institute of Social Values

Sofia, January 6 (BTA) - In its annual analysis the Ivan
Hadjiiski Institute of Social Values and Structures says 2014
was a year of aftershocks in the political process. What began
as an anti-system protest was institutionalized. Once it was
given controlled access to governance, it started talking about
stabilization as well.

While the protest waves of 2013 left economic problems to some
extent out of the public eye, in 2014 the agenda of society took
 an economic turn: financial destabilization and bank problems
were just some of the topics, according to the Institute.

The role of the presidential institution grew last year as
President Rosen Plevneliev gained political confidence.

The analysts note that GERB, the Reformist Bloc, the Patriotic
Front and ABV came together to form the most complex governance
formula in Bulgaria's contemporary history.

Last year was undoubtedly successful for GERB. The protest's
failure to bring in an alternative to Plamen Oresharski's
government understandably made GERB seem to be the only real
alternative, "our last hope" to keep the country governable. The
 analysts assume that GERB leader and Prime Minister Boyko
Borissov is eyeing the presidency.

The Institute also comments that Borissov undoubtedly benefits
from the internal divisions in the Reformist Bloc by manoeuvring
 among the different camps. However, the Bloc is unlikely to
fall apart in the near future, according to the analysts.

ABV is the most ambitious attempt so far to create an
alternative to the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), which is
going through an identity crisis.

If a politician of the year has to be named, Movement for Rights
 and Freedoms (MRF) leader Lyutvi Mestan is the shoo-in
candidate. The MRF broke away from the BSP's orbit because after
 nearly 13 years there it risked being lumped together with the
BSP and falling into isolation. Instead, the MRF took the
maverick decision to bring down its own government.

The elections in 2014 resulted in a new electoral geography,
with the MRF gaining a lasting presence in the villages and the
poor regions. Its emergence as the second largest political
force in the future seems quite likely, the analysts predict.

GERB's relations with the MRF took the usual course which the
Institute terms "a non-aggression pact". Still, the MRF was
becoming increasingly ambitious to prove that GERB could not
ensure stable governance without it, the analysis says. On the
other hand, Borissov was obviously reluctant to have this
alliance happen publicly.

The Institute also comments that the Bulgaria without Censorship
 party emerged as an ambitious project early in 2014, only to
fall into what seems an irreversible nadir at the year's end.

The establishment of the Patriotic Front is the first successful
 attempt in contemporary Bulgaria to create a nationalist
formation which unites a large number of small patriotic
parties. In this sense, the Patriotic Front seemed to be the
opposite to the Ataka party. The analysts warn that the
Patriotic Front should beware of becoming an Ataka lookalike.

However, social problems and the right-wing measures taken by
Georgi Bliznashki's caretaker cabinet (August 6 - November 7,
2014) gave Ataka a new lease of life. Volen Siderov's party
showed it had its own electorate (different to that of the
Patriotic Front), which should not be underestimated.

The Institute notes that Bulgaria gained geopolitical importance
 for its Western partners against the backdrop of instability in
 Ukraine and the Middle East.