site.btaTsacheva, Radev Certain to Go to Runoff - Trend Research Centre

Tsacheva, Radev Certain to Go to Runoff - Trend Research Centre

Sofia, November 2 (BTA) - The Trend Research Centre predicts that GERB presidential candidate Tsetska Tsacheva and Socialist-backed candidate Rumen Radev are certain to go to a second round of voting after Bulgarians vote on November 6.

The forecast is based on a nationally representative poll conducted among 1,004 people on October 19-26 and financed by Trend.

Tsacheva is the front-runner in the poll, backed by 27.3 per cent of the respondents decided to vote, followed by Radev with 24 per cent, United Patriots candidate Krassimir Karakachanov with 12.1 per cent, Ivailo Kalfin of an ABV-led coalition with 6.7 per cent, independent Vesselin Mareshki with 6.3 per cent, Traicho Traikov of the Reformist Bloc with 5.4 per cent, Plamen Oresharski (backed by the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, MRF) with 3.2 per cent, and Tatyana Doncheva of a coalition between Movement 21 and the National Movement for Upsurge and Stability with 2.2 per cent. The "none of the above" option accounts for 7.1 per cent.

The pollsters used show cards which were almost exact replicas of the ballot paper. Trend's analysts note that two days after the poll began the MRF declared its support for Oresharski, meaning that his poll result is unrealistically low.

The findings should not be considered as a forecast for the final result, Trend says.

While nearly 60 per cent of all respondents say they are certain to go to the polls, the real voter turnout is always lower, the analysts say. Still, the turnout can be expected to be higher than in previous elections as 84 per cent of respondents say they know that voting has become compulsory.

The poll also found that 60 per cent of voters have decided firmly on a candidate, as against 19 per cent who have not. Forty-four per cent knew who they would support even before the campaign, and 19 per cent made up their mind during it. Asked if it matters who will be elected president, 76 per cent say "yes" and 16 per cent say "no".

The respondents said a president's most important qualities are: an ability to unify people (39 per cent), integrity (38 per cent), intelligence (30 per cent), patriotism (26 per cent), and political experience (26 per cent).

Slightly more than half of respondents had watched the televised debates, and 14 per cent of all were influenced by them.

Testing the attitudes to early parliamentary elections, Trend's analysts found that 45 per cent of those polled do not consider them necessary, and 32 per cent hold the opposite view.

Asked about the referendum which will be held on the same day as the presidential election, three in four respondents say they will support the election of members of parliament based on the majority principle in two rounds; slightly more than half will support the introduction of compulsory voting in elections and referendums and 40 per cent are against; and 80 per cent are in favour of reducing the state subsidy for political parties and coalitions from 11 leva now to 1 lev per vote received in the latest general elections.