site.btaAlpha Research Poll Finds Strong Polarization of Public Attitudes, High Willingness to Vote

Alpha Research Poll Finds Strong Polarization of Public Attitudes, High Willingness to Vote

Sofia, February (BTA) - Strong polarization of public attitudes, a high willingness to vote and small margins between parties make the outcome of the early general elections on March 26 precarious, shows a nationally representative survey by Alpha Research at the start of the election campaign.

The survey was carried out between February 16 and 23 among 1,024 respondents.

One month into his term, President Rumen Radev enjoys a 55 per cent approval ratings. However, the work of the caretaker government appointed by him draws much less enthusiasm. Fifty-five per cent of respondents have no opinion, but the rest are polarized with 26 per cent approving and 19 per cent disapproving. Caretaker Prime Minister Ognian Gerdjikov enjoys 33 per cent approval and 20 per cent disapproval.

Some 3.7 million voters are expected to go to the polls om March 26, less than voter turnout in the first round of the presidential elections when 3.9 million people voted.

Several small margins between the parties raise question over the outcome of the early general elections. The two largest parties, GERB and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) are running neck-and-neck with 31.5 per cent and 29.6 per cent support respectively. In the past month GERB lost some ground among middle-aged voters, while BSP strengthened its positions in rural areas. Regardless of the electoral dynamics approval for the leaders of the two parties remains at the level of past month: 31.9 per cent for Borissov and 25.3 per cent for Ninova.

The United Patriots coalition are the third party with 10.8 per cent of voter support. Inner discord which prompted MPs to walk out however is affecting negatively the image of the coalition leaders, who lost some 5 percentage points approval.

The Movement for Rights and Freedoms has 6.8 per cent support and the Volya Party has 5.7 per cent support.

The dynamics among the smaller right- and left-wing formations will play an important role for the final outcome. The increasing polarization between GERB and the BSP may focus attention on the two leading parties which will hamper the entry of the smaller parties to parliament. However, the excessive aggression, recriminations and mud slinging may encourage people to choose smaller parties. The number of parties that will make it to Parliament will be decided in the course of the election campaign, when 25 per cent of voters will make their decisions.

At the start of the election campaign the Reformist Bloc has 3.9 per cent support. The survey began before the announcement of the coalition between the Reformist Bloc and Vox Populi, which in past elections has managed to win 1 per cent of the vote.

The Yes, Bulgaria Movement Coalition has 2.6 per cent support, and the New Republic Coalition, 1.5 per cent support. The advantage of Yes, Bulgaria is due to better positions among younger generations and the challenge for them is to manage to mobilize all their supporters. New Republic has consolidated but very small electorate.

The only recognizable left-wing alternative is the ABV-Movement 21 coalition which has 2.9 per cent support. Its chance for a better showing in the elections are left-centrist voters who the BSP fails to mobilize.

Voter attitudes reinforce tendencies for a coalition government with a two-party formula less likely. The deep ideological, political and geostrategic differences between the two leading parties make them strongly incompatible and a possible coalition will be extremely unstable. In this sense, a legislature made up by the first five formations will be a serious challenge for mandate holders.