site.btaPhoto Finish to Determine Final Result in Tightly Contested Early Elections in Netherlands

Party for Freedom (PVV) or Democrats 66 (D66) party? This question is more relevant than ever after the snap parliamentary elections in the Netherlands on October 29.

An exit poll late on Wednesday declared the pro-European and social-liberal D66 party the winner, with 27 MPs in the 150-seat House of Representatives (lower house) (18 more than in the 2023 elections), while the far-right and anti-Islamic Party for Freedom emerged as the big loser with 25 MPs (37 in 2023). The media began writing about D66 leader Rob Jetten as the new prime minister of the Netherlands.

However, the vote count reversed the outcome, and by the morning, the positions had shifted: (for now) both parties will have 26 MPs each. Party for Freedom with its leader Geert Wilders came first, with 2,341 votes more than D66. Local media report that the gap could widen further. Whether this will be the case will become clear in a few days - most likely on Monday evening - when the results of the postal voting from abroad are announced.

A photo finish will determine the final result of the tightly contested elections in the Netherlands. The party with the most MPs - or with the highest number of votes in the event of an equal number of seats - will receive the first mandate to form a government.

But even at this stage, several clear conclusions can be drawn:

Regardless of the final result, the Netherlands has swung back to the political center, Associated Press wrote in its review of the election results. 

While it definitely symbolically matters whether PVV or D66 will come out on top, it seems that it will be the centrist with their charismatic leader, Rob Jetten, who will likely lead the talks to form the next government, with Wilders going back to the opposition, the Guardian wrote. 

Reuters reported that the next government will not include the PVV as „major mainstream parties have ruled out governing with Wilders this time after he brought down the last coalition, which was led by his own party. This leaves him no viable path to a majority, unlike D66's young leader Jetten - who will still need to clinch the support of several other parties“.

Although they could still lose by a nose, the “winners” of the polls were the center-left D66 party and its 38-year-old leader Rob Jetten, AP wrote. Jetten, who will marry his hockey-playing Argentine partner next year, cut a young and dynamic figure, the article added. Supporters chanted “Yes, we can,” as the former climate minister took the stage after the exit polls were announced. If the four biggest mainstream parties stick to their vow not to govern with Wilders, then Jetten is likely to take top office, becoming the Netherlands’ first openly gay prime minister, AP pointed out.

The explanation for D66’s victory lies largely in the positive election campaign led by Jetten, as Dutch media noted even before election day. “Yes, we can” - this was the chant of D66 supporters when Jetten took to the stage after the announcement of the exit poll results. In his speech, he spoke kindly about the voters of other parties.

A rough calculation shows that D66, GroenLinks-PvdA, Christian Democratic Appeal, and People's Party for Freedom and Democracy together have enough seats to form a government: 86, with 76 being the minimum required.

In its overview, Reuters quoted Jetten as saying: “We've shown not only to the Netherlands, but also to the world that it is possible to beat populist and extreme-right movements.” However, it should be noted that the Party for Freedom remains strong. On Wednesday, Wilders stressed that the party still has 1.7 million votes and remains one of the largest parties in the country. It can still be the largest one.

The next government seems likely to coalesce around the political center, but just to the right or to the left, remains the question, AP wrote. This is nothing new for the Netherlands, but it still does not augur well for a stable government that can easily chaperone legislation through parliament, the article added.

Jetten confirmed this morning, as quoted by Dutch media, that forming a government will not be easy, but it is necessary to act quickly. However, he believes that some parties need time to reflect on the results. By this, he means the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy, which performed better than expected, and GroenLinks-PvdA, whose results were disappointing.

But if the forecasts for the coming developments prove correct and a centrist government is formed in the Netherlands, the country will move away from the far right. “The Dutch election was seen as a test of whether the far right can expand its reach or whether it has peaked in parts of Europe,” wrote Reuters, adding that “the outcome suggests that there are some limits to its appeal.”